Sunday, 22 September 2013

Weekend Chatter IX

This weeks chatter is in relation to the Q4 market activity going into the new year 2014, we are now hearing the ftse cry for 8000 pts yet only a matter of months ago the 4500 pts yelping took place '' What should we believe? ''

The reality is you shouldn't be buying into this piss and wind statement anymore than the 4500 point jibba jabba, Why? Well as a good buddy of mine in stock world recently said '' The Christmas rally needs some pullback '' I tend to agree that the Ftse is more likely to try the high end area before scaling back. I see the bank of america have closed the silver short and the dollar/gold relationship is becoming disconnected somewhat, this points to a certain pullback of some descript in the ftse and an increase in the precious metal/mineral market.

2014 is the year that the cyclical momentum turns really bullish and there is nothing yet in the market suggesting it will come as a whole before, having said that the small cap is perking up and we are seeing price moves suggesting that the risk is coming back or as a base case the markets are playing low end card games with the retail '' Snap ''

This week I called Us Oil and Gas for the second time leaving a message on BM's mobile to call me, I don't expect he will however felt compelled to clarify a few points, Ironically my pal TW. has wrote about the company which was unrelated to my calling BM yet feel its certainly on folks mind for more than one as it lanquiches at 25-35p (here's Tom's thoughts)

I absolutely get why people love to hashtag you in or @DH me on stock moves to help get eyes on a company they really like, I have one message '' If you're going to do this have the courtesy to run through the companies covered and use the relevant information, I have been banging on about the Zioc rally or the Avm rally for what seems a lifetime '' For me they are not over but i'm focused on finding them before the event not after and during as this is the time to de-risk and lock in gains etc ''

Recently I backed the Vog bid and over the last week I have questioned what the game play is about, Initially i felt the 21 DSMA was likely to cross the 50 DSMA igniting a bullish signal or reversal sign to the heavily hammered share price however the action has remained depressed and saturated as it trades from 1.3p to 1.25p. Most people won't be concerned and I'm not really although it does appear a less than typical example of manipulation with outcome probably an aggressive one. If that shift happens and the journey goes north to the 200DSMA at 1.6's then make sure you follow the money in. If it goes 1.15p or below then it could well test 1p... '' My feeling is the stock is posturing for an aggressive move which would reward the long investor ''

Bulletin board morons who whip up stock pages must feel great when they execute their sell as the herd pile into a company with their pockets full of '' hopes & dreams ''

Guys you really in control of your own destiny and if this is the only strategy to win then its a bit like picking a fight with the down on his luck broken sole drunk with his hands tied behind his back.... It really is not big or clever, WAKE UP now and take counsel on how you can improve your game rather than getting sucked into the implosive vacuum of this battle field.

Okay back to the norm, last week I mentioned I was speaking to tomCo's CEO Paul Rankine as always in my unorthodox or somewhat unique manner we spoke of the companies pros and cons. The fact that the SP has performed well since the initial review at 1.3p would suggest that the market is waking up to the potential and whilst I agree with P.R on this basis I was quick to remind him that the SP was not down in the doldrums because the market was enthusiastic about the company, Its getting there but still maintain the TP in the write up here:

'' If tomCo want a stand and stage at the UK Investor show 2014 then it will be arranged in a jiffy via a simple email or phone call to me ''

The retail investor world is still obsessed by the proactive interviews and articles, I spoke with one really decent guy and CEO at a well known aim listed company, I had to reiterate a simple point, 500 hits on a stocktube video or nearly 5000 hits on an article I wrote on stockopedia. Come on proactive if you're charging the companies good money to churn this shit out at least have the decency to give the company a stage. To validate my own thoughts I reviewed the numbers that tuned into the GKP court case news which was huge for this company and also something I believe genuine investors were keen to watch play out...

1000 hits and there is nothing to say how unique the audience is, I like proactive and I totally respect the unprecedented presence it has but if i'm honest down at the tier 3 end of the market i just don't rate their impact or influence on aligning investor with company. I'm not a confrontational person but one that will happily argue facts over fiction or myth.

Sound Oil tank on what is clearly good news of de risking its Nervesa well however news gaps are perhaps responsible for this temporary decline, It looks to be a BUY at 8p

Black Mountain is either a big riser on news of production or a bear like hibernation stock

Corero Network seem to be stirring on attention as the recovery play unfolds, I hope to speak with the company this week so will report findings.

Gulf Keystone hover around £2 as the CEO announces of CNBC that they're not talking with any majors as yet and confirm their intention to LSE listing from aim.

Westminster Group keep ticking along as anticipation grows on there chance of landing a game changing contract.

Bowleven trade down to the 55p area to buy as one bunch of retail buyers become frustrated at the purchase and hold of the wholesale winners stock. '' In layman's its back at wholesale price ''

Thor Mining look interesting at 0.275-0.35p and we watch for the break out of the range once the OH has cleared

Frontier look to has a seller but a compelling story of mixed/diverse assets

Mtv still a piss and wind company without a serious investment case nor business model (In my humble opinion)

RedRock Resource trade above the cash balance of the divested assets in Greenland, one which may become a traders target.

TomCo Permitting news and the speculative impact of this has helped boost the company's share price as investor energy looks for the right result to get the project away.

Physiomics trade 0.09 - 0.15 as shareholders plea for some real meat on the bone news gets continuously ignored, good product but one that is operating in an unforgiving and out of favour sector. (for now!)

Enjoy the week

All the best


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

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