Sunday, 26 October 2014

DocsLaymanChatter XXVIII

What a week in the markets, share price snakes and ladders seems to be the order of the day as the schizo markets changed its mind yet again. In the wake of a wipeout wave during october the calming of the storm has descended onto the small cap sector. There has been plenty enough excitement for one week so here's to the weeks events but not before we focus on a few well discussed principles one should hold.

When good news breaks the markets generally know before the retail hence an aggressive pull back pre RNS, Likewise if a disappointment is coming we often see a rally and tank on news. This is not always the case and we must put this into perspective as the memorable cases are those that are really hyped up leaving the expectation well ahead of probable outcome investors are thrown into uncharted and unexpected territory which in essence presents the sacrificial lambs. We as private investors need to have a strategy in every event, but most of all try and remain as balanced as physically possible.

The talk of the town has been Horse Hill, expectations have been built up and many are left asking questions, at this point it would tee me up nicely to sling shit at Lenigas however I think the damage has been done there and its a pointless exercise but what I will comment on is BMD and the attention that he has had for breaking the story early on. It happens that if you give private investors what they want '' Early shout on news '' then your an areshole because you didn't then take them by the hand and execute their position one way or another. Some would argue P.I's are best left like lemmings however I disagree and believe that simple,robust principles which are applied without emotion can really help investors get a grasp on how to beat the markets maker.

After Vigorously defending David Lenigas and clearly with a good source close to the operation it begs the question was my friend BMD thanked by having his tits twisted with yet more misinformation or was he absolutely spot on to report his findings? I tend to agree with Ben Turney when I say Dan had a duty to report the news, whilst folk argue the detail it really was a big call of which I believe BMD acted for the best and with rightful interest of others. Let the final outcome do the talking and also remember that this was valuable news '' Big scoop '' even if the follow up reaction was not so....

UK Oil & Gas: Tanks on the portland oil discovery update by HHDL, I have stated all along that I believed Oil would be found at Horse Hill and I'm sure there will be another twist or turn in developments 3 miles north of Gatwick airport.

Independent Resources: IRG took off on friday with record breaking volumes this year, with lots of demand from the retailers to secure an interview with the company I look to find out more about a company whose shares here have traded significantly higher in 2011 & 2012 at 100p and 40p respective, clearly much has happened, the SP languishes at 8-2p this year however there does seem to be a disconnect between assets and the market cap of £3m more to follow.

Northcote Energy: Traded significant volumes mid/late last week, this is a real bull signal regarding newsflow. The markets build up expectation and anticipation on what's due! here it would seem that the company are trading off their 12 month low point giving an excellent binary play if nothing else. there has been an acute focus on the oil price which has helped depress all the oilers recently however a decent piece of meaningful news will set the hare running back towards a penny. '' watch out for shoats creek ''

Sunrise Resources: I have chatted a little about this undervalued mining company that has been hammered down recently, again trading up off the lows and with a healthy operational period upon us sunrise has enough to heat up the trading weeks and months ahead. Take some counsel from the recent RNS and look at the Gold,Diatomite,Diamond and Silver assets, things should start to tick along nicely.

Savannah Resources: I have been asked much about Sav via social media over recent weeks, let me clear I have not simply ignored the requests I'm simply looking at the pro's and con's to its current portfolio of assets against the Bergen funding agreement. I think should they slightly tailor their agreements and kick off operations then the company could move back towards the previous high's however Its one to analyse further.

Armstrong Ventures: Is an out and out punt stock that has recently announced Peter Redmond to the bod, Redders is something of a quick starter and slow finisher i.e he'll have a plan on how to create interest and big swings north then often sits on his hands at a slower pace. I believe that AVP will potentially pull out a white rabbit thus a good short punt play. (you are playing Russian roulette here though folks in some respects)

All the best


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

Friday, 17 October 2014

Lets Get BMD Some #Facts Here...

Today my friend BrokerManDaniel jumped to the aid of David Lenigas who in his typical ozzy manner has spat the dummy out yet again, before folk stress about David '' The Tweet '' Lenigas's apparent withdrawal from twitter I'll draw your attention to the raft of companies that he represents on twitter that all have feeds in which he can tweet until his little heart's content.

What has happened here is the guy has cocked up twice in quick succession whilst arrogantly ridiculing people as '' Unable or Incompetent '' at running a public listed company, or perhaps worse suggesting that his all mighty knowledge is superior to others....

Thats fine as the guy has clearly had some success but lets not forget the royal fuck ups or the fact that he has used twitter as a conduit for self prophecy and promotion. When you drop a clanger you own up, you contact your PR team (which you pay handsomely) and you ask they take care of tidying up the mess. Within 7days David avoided a blackout period prior to a funding call in which he commented on the company which some could describe as positively before announcing a £2m placing. This brings into question the morality of such an occurrence. We in the market accepted his reasoning (As he weakly hit back) only to find that on three yes three separate occasions DL had alluded to the fact the company had 3d seismic data. For anyone like BMD who doesn't quite get the significance of drilling assisted by 3d data or difference it makes to the outcome of analytical work and drilling team execution then please feel free to look it up.

I'm happy to accept that Dave didn't realise what he was actually talking about hence the mistake or that he was tired, over worked or hungover. But he should have held his hands up and corrected the mistake, I believe other writers and commentators agree with me but unlike other unnamed folk I have no business or working with him on anything thus not agenda driven. I do find the guy to be a condescending fat piece of shit who strongly believes his own twaddle whilst attempting his Peter Pan style run on the city....

You see Rolf '' Perfect treat for the family '' Harris claims he did nothing wrong (Initially) it quickly became the love of a girl in which he had sexual desires and encounters (Once of age) '' It was just a simple mistake '' Or Stuart Hall who like half the BBC thought they could brush up against a women whilst squeezing her tits because they were privileged and protected by fame or notoriety. (Obviously this has no similarity to my argument but you see the point?)

This story is not the end of a social media era '' ITS THE START '' of a bigger investigation.

To remind folk of a tweet made by the big man, '' Doc's a good research journalist '' he was right I am and when you misinform people whilst masquerading unscrupulously as you do then I feel no shame in highlighting it in the public domain - I fear others won't as the circle of wealth distributes great rewards for those who can keep tight lipped. '' I cannot '' I'm a simple man from humble beginnings and contrary to belief I live a simple life.

If you want to know what the Mr Tweet thinks of investors or shareholders watch this

'' I couldn't give a rats clacker '' to quote the poor old sod who's getting a tough time.....

Daniel fuck off its utter twaddle and you know it, i'll give it 12 months and you will be singing a different tune, however my friend BMD is a good honest and decent person who I have a whole lot of time and respect for so shall wind my over opinionated neck in and continue with my nerdy due diligence on other bollocks or rocks dropped...

I believe that HorseHill will find Oil and I also don't have any doubt that this is a bonafide Onshore Oil play. My comments are about behaviour and misinformation and not about the operation on the ground.

A few days with the tree huggers at HorseHill would do Daves ego the world of good....




Saturday, 11 October 2014

Markets Submerge Further...

This weeks blog looks over the car crash of the markets over the last week.What does this holds for the punters & pro's! A decent correction often leaves private investors perplexed and fearful, I'm not going to brush off this aggressive move as nothing more than the mechanics before a significant drive in forming new highs however I would suggest that before people run to the door! they actually contemplate where things stand on each pocket of economic data released.

Quantitative easing, low crude price and a falling baltic dry index.... What does it mean?

Well QE is speculated as the booster jab the globally community needs and Europe seem to looking for their next fix, The USA has stalled a little as it seems to have handed over the belt of global supremacy which is now up for the taking, leaving Putin rushing to pass a bill preventing women having tattoos in the small of there back.

Low brent means that things will be cheaper to ship however the commodity linked industry has to accept that its not all '' good in the hood '' never worry to much as pretty much oil to gold the money will insist on capitalising as the mexican stand off between collapse of physical gold and collapse of the global stock markets will ensure volatility,fear and international worry... I shan't be shaking like a shitting dog just yet but do concede that keeping some powder dry '' just in case '' never did anyone any harm. The big financial Christmas run will commence bringing temporary relief if nothing else. Rumors of finacial meltdowns are closely followed by the planet being infected with ebola by sept 2016 leaving 70% of the global population dead. Should the I.S rule the world or Swine flu emerge I'll make sure I have a good Christmas by drinking,smoking and spending a few bob on loved ones.

Folks lifes about managing the good,bad and ugly, the current run of form will be no different than the last correction. For those following the BDI then its back to consistent levels of a decade ago, were likely to see some consolidation and continuity of the world's shipping lanes. '' Nothing more worrying than that in my opinion ''

My old mate Tom Winnifrith sticks the boot in on another aim company that has been around for a while and currently at a loss ratio of a quarter of its value. However Tom takes DickHead Dave at face value. I mean please.........

He has a relevant point and this is one of the primary reasons I believe Tom is such a valuable commodity to private investors, Quindell,Blinkx and Sefton are all but a few companies that Tom and co. have been absolutely 100% correct about. '' Is he right to highlight failings in a company that has yet to perform and is he also right to remain steadfast in his defence of all that is dear to him including DD '' whilst we don't agree on everything including his recent coverage on Patrick Cheetham of tertiary, for the record since Cheetham came into the rat race of aim over 1/3 or 700 companies have gone to the wall! Tym has not. I won't argue the corner but will do after I return from our meeting next week.  I do respect the meaningful relationship Tom and I have (I would say friendship but clearly a southern posh knob and a heathen northerner could never have anything in common) having said that he has my unequivocal support on the slaying of unethical publicly listed companies...

We can talk about companies all we like but when a bear raid ensues then sometimes its best we board up the windows and hide behind the tears of a clown. Perhaps the brave & foolhardy could try and buy the hammered down stuff, keep some powder dry and try and evaluate the impact damage/limitation to each piece of news...

A guy pulled me up about my foul language this week for which I'm sorry!

Exclusive - Aussie Investor (Probably RRL) kicks off with twitter heavy weight BigGib

All the best


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( These are but opinions and not a statement of fact )