Saturday, 25 January 2014

DocsLaymanChatter Vol. XX

Last Night I shared further validation on mariana as well as commenting on Aletco (Alo) along with thoughts on market mechanics here.

At some point my technical schooling by my old mate chiffa became second to writing and commentating on the markets, trading/investing is the tool I'm best suited to using so 2014 will be a year I return to significantly increasing the p/f valuation as a consequence I'll be scaling back my public appearances on some of the sites I appear, this is by no means an end but simply a break to focus more on my own personal position as well as penning layman articles through DLC which will remain a weekly round up and a daily audio.

Portfolios have to be robust and resilient and you simply cannot get this by going all in from a one dimensional view point. we as investors have to build a structure which will withstand the hurricanes of a disambiguous market or the affluent passage through each day/week.

Private Investors or P.I's represent all that is good and bad in the markets, a P.I will work tirelessly to research a company to validate one's thoughts yet only 2% of the retail market have the ability or credentials to do this which means in layman's terms that most of what we read on forums and even blog sites is utter bullshit (make no exception here) this presents the question what and who do we believe? As far as I see it you have to gently whittle out your understanding of the markets from experiences you have whilst absorbing those of others.

We/you have to understand that the complexity of the trade/investment only becomes clearer when you understand the wider picture. You build a picture of what is happening through your portfolio '' So if you're diverse '' You will feel the markets sentiment instantly, If not you trade muted from the bigger picture. O.k I'm waffling on however P.I's have to understand that should the Fed/Ecb or other major scale announcement come. you are:

A) Protected
B) Aware
C) Able to react

If you cannot do any of the three then you are about to encounter the biggest lesson of your life. Don't be a statistic and don't fall foul of the hype both built in the global media and the small end media. Knowledge is literally power in the stock market , '' Mechanics drive it - understanding this opens the door to success ''

Weekend waffle (Market mechanics) here:

Review in brief on companies of interest and the broader picture....

Mariana: Marl perked up from 4p after finding its range, the company secured its funding package to develope its high impact assets. Rumor of hole 5 news flow coupled with a technical relief suggests that further weight will be added. We have to remember that the markets move each minute of each hour of each day.

(Additional shareprophets publication on Marl here)

Aletco: Alo Investors became frustrated by the Rns order last week which I believe will cost them dearly from a confidence perspective '' All in my opinion ''

Uk Oil & Gas: Looks to absorb some of the reflective sentiment from Total entering the UK, the major difference being conventional against unconventional (frac) Ukog shouldn't face the complications of fracking.

Acta SpA: I covered this company this week here ''Acta raised £2.1m from institutional investors, the directors have put their hands in their pockets at 7p in late 2013. At 8p we can see material block buying as the technical range looks to be buckling suggesting further upside could be realised. Based on Institutional buying at 7p, Directors throwing skin in the game coupled with a strong investment case I suggest a small punt is the order of the day.''

All the best


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Sunday, 19 January 2014

DocsLaymanChatter XIX

This weeks Layman chat outlines the value of momentum and swing, the first lesson many private investors learn is wherever the masses congregate usually has gains adding to the register or soon to be big rises.

Sentiment, Momentum and popularity is the tool of the herd investor. We can never discount their value on aim however I urge private investors to take a more rounded outlook at their investment/trade career. In life we are all taught the universal notion of '' bad habits die hard ''

This leads me onto the solid foundations #dlc attempts to harness with P.i's. The theory is to look at a company from all angles head on and from an obtuse angle if needed.

Liabilities (debt/loan)
Tangible vale (proven)
Intangible value (yet to be proven)
Revenue stream (cash in)
Remuneration (bod payments)
Cash costs (Price per unit against market/commodity sale value)
Outflow (Cash going out)
Margin (whether profitable or not)
Gross/net (margin)
Significant holders (Skin in the game)

In order to stay ahead of the game and the interest creation that comes with mass moves on companies you have to already have quantified '' Is there a genuine upside being realised or a pump on a company '' this will help guide you through the forthcoming moves.

Below we look at a handful of companies that appear on/off investor radars.

Sirius Petroleum: Sirius are a company which has proceeded on its journey of sideways movement whilst a large share exchange has been taking place. I hesant to add that I actually think at 3p the value of the company is priced cheaply should the company actually put into practise the high value propositions outlined over the last few years.

Sula Iron: Sula I tipped at 1.8p via the which has turned out to be a cracker, today I have suggested taking some off the table in a more formal manner. Bulletin boards have misquoted me on sula suggesting I'm short of sula or bearish and this is not the case. I am simply following the passage of my own experience and advising investors take some of the 282% gain realised in a month.

Strategic Minerals: The company lit up on rising registers as well as P.i radars Friday with a high volume interest from buyers. This is a classic signal outlined in today's chatter and one worth adding to the buy/watch list as the SP seems to be down in the 12 month chart and with a bunch of life now showing on sonar.

MTV Popular Pump: Still manages to keep a few well known bullshitters interested as they trade out the weak (new) P.I's who are bowled over by the romance of millions of shares for very little money with the notion they will one day make it rich, - '' It won't and you won't '' Sell for crying out loud.

Mwana: I flagged Mwa on the twitter feed last week, the SP took off from 1.45p-2.55p with an aggressive pullback to scratch however the interesting fact comes by way of technicals as the rise and the fall off the 200dsma is an early bull flag signal. Early next week will dictate if the pullback is a fake beartrap to sucker people in or a bull trap to sucker buyers in. '' Time will tell ''

African Potash: I won't beat the drum to hard here but its one that has been mentioned a few times now although still has not realised its total potential. currently the shares are trading cheaply so I wouldn't be surprised to see it shoot up another 50-75%

Leni Oil&Gas: This week Leni announced the Company's application for a Certificate of Environmental Compliance ("CEC") for the planned drilling campaign of 30 new wells at the Goudron Field has now been approved.

With a heavy focus on the small/microcap resource sector this week! Next week we will look at sturdy offerings of diversity.

All the best


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Saturday, 11 January 2014

DocsLaymanChatter XVIII


Today feels like the first steps of a marathon in returning to my roots in the market.....

Friday had a poor reading on job growth which was well out and below expectation however the hydrostatic shock of the news recovered pretty darn quick covering the tracks of what could have been deemed bad news. Another example of why/how the bulls are taking the markets further and further which falls inline with consecutive and incessant projections of how 2014 would play out...

April-May will be the real test of the 10/14 repeat bull cycle or a typical slow down for the summer holiday season. Needless to say we are in the now and have to treat each investment/trade as if it were just another sunset at the end of a busy day.

The DLC audio (here) is ticking along nicely although not quite as frequent as I would like although we strive to improve '' The markets and how they work is similar to pandoras box '' find the key and you unlock the value. If not you spend a lifetime wondering.

Below is the usual layman chatter roundup of what's hot or not. Please keep sending in your thoughts and also retweeting/sharing and using or referencing the blog #Dlc. (It helps me not you but I'm cheeky)

Karelian Diamonds (Kdr): Managed to suck in the penny punters before spitting them out 4p down to 2.7p and quite possibly further drops to near 2p '' when will private investors learn?

Sula Iron (Sula): Sula has continued its passage through time holding onto significant gains after it was tipped by me on at 1.8p, Should CEO warrell come up trumps then the next leg up after further consolidation is a real possible.

Pathfinder (Pfp): I covered Pathfinder for a bunch of reasons but the main one is as presentation of a company with a bright future and valuable assets suffering from a (turncoat) deal or a sobering chain of events. Pfp have assets worth up to $500m but have battled for over 2 Years to retrieve what is rightfully there's. The strong cash coverage of this £4m mcap company suggest there is a binary bet.

Inspirit Energy (Insp): Announced they were in advanced negotiations with industry majors after appointing Enertek to support the fast track of the mCHP boiler. All the buzzwords are here as is the retail support, I expect further gains.

Motive Tv (Mtv): Mtv keep churning out jam tomorrow statements along with a raft of placing. In my opinion the company is an absolute joke, should the tap be turned off then the game is up quickly as cash is a commodity in short supply.

Clontarf Energy (Clon): After once upon a time holding some bullish sentiment towards the company I draw investors attention to the pisstaking warrant/options in Petrel which seems to outline how the boys are acquiring their stock. - If and when there is a take over I anticipate they will have earned a few punts off this pair of doves.

African Potash (Afpo): African potash have some pretty tidy assets located within a decent geographic location with solid  infrastructure. I wanted to draw attention to Dr Simon Dorling who seemingly has slipped under the radar as non-executive and geologist used by Elemental.  Dr D has a wealth of experience and a proven resume.
(Elemental are in advanced stages of a rumored $175m takeover)

All the best


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Wednesday, 1 January 2014

Welcome 2014

Happy NewYear folks....

With many still high on the joys of the festive period its time to allow gravity to slam you back down to earth, don't let the good feeling or wishes of prosperity cloud ones judgement when reviewing the markets from this day forward.

Gold closed the year with its biggest decline since 1981 however the overnights (Asia) looked grim and gold has clawed back some of its losses, my old mate Ben Turney will be happy as he seemed to agree with me that the shit can't stay in the fan... It often hits it, has an aggressive ride before correcting somewhat '' Long money on gold from $1200 ''

My tips for 2013 going into 2014 as published by and (advfn) were Afriag (Afri), African Potash (Afpo) and LekOil (Lek) to be clear I believe we have three very different entity's and all have already been hugely profitable if you had followed them in 2013,

As we look to avoid the spell cast upon us by the markets mechanics, I urge all newbie investors to question and exhaust all possible outlets whether this be forums,commentators,exec boards or even the social media. Many have agenda's which are not aligned with what is best for you the individual. '' Beware of the spin ''

Currently I'm doing some research on a natural resource play with a bunch of reasons to buy from a technical perspective coupled with solid facts and ironically some school boy classic why not to hold such a company in the highest of regard.

The enigma that is Aim or the smallcap is know your enemy, know what can hurt and reward you most. All to often investors fall in love with a company without any leverage from the position they hold. I'm not suggesting that you don't back a company. I merely proclaim you do so whilst managing your risk and expectations.

Good luck in 2014 and here's hoping DLC grows at twice the rate...