Saturday, 28 June 2014

DocsLaymanChatter Smallcap Oil & Gas Focus

Over recent weeks we appear to be witnessing a similar pattern in the junior Oil & Gas space as we did earlier in the year with junior miners, granted these flurry's of interest can subside as quick as they surface however the sector feels firmer to me and on that basis I have decided to dedicate this weeks blog to the sector.

I appreciate that there are many good companies that are incorrectly valued and vice verse however this is the aim market where sentiment and momentum can be eight tenths of the law, particularly in a modestly bullish arena. Interest,volume and coverage has certainly been ramped up over the last few weeks as have a number of small cap companies, here we'll talk about the beginning,end or the beginning of the end!!!

Private investors have to manage expectations before,during and after executing their interest, far to often people lose perspective thus increasing the risk ratio to a level which is not viable to take any return in a structured fashion. Nobody goes broke taking some off the table, I see my buddy @ChrisOil on twitter getting his back up over Rose Petroleum as he feels he's having it stuffed down his throat. Chris is a savvy guy (no question) but to threaten writing damning articles as a defence or threat to (spammers) shows an emotional element to his tact which from experience is never a good application. I have a lot of time for Chris as I do all of my fellow bloggers,writers and commentators, I too have been on the recieveing end of a pretty shitty stick although remain steadfast with my opinion. I know my friend Tom Winnifrith, BrokerManDaniel and Ben Turnkey and co. are all of a similar makeup which is why the berating or abuse falls on deaf ears as presenting facts or educated opinion is key rather than engage in meaningless debate with dickheads.

whether or not we agree we have to accept that this is the nature of the markets, here's a few that appear to be gathering momentum over the past week or two....

Gulf keystone: Rumours of an imminent Joint venture agreement with Chevron has the tails of the shareholders wagging, this makes a pleasant change from the tail wagging the dog which has been killing the share price and sentiment of GKP, we often see this depressed price action just before significant news so lets hope the markets are about to reward punters. At last glance a strong close over 106p pointed to high 140's however this JV news could well rock any technical call.

Rose Petroleum: Seems to be an all or nothing approach at times in Oil and Gas companies however Rose has been fortunate to have had really positive support over recent months. Needless to say the company came to market for £5million and secured £6.5million (15% over) the initial call. At £6.5m subscribers were still scaled which is the real explanation for the rise off 1.6p to 2.6p in no time at all. We hear market speculators calling the dump on share admission and that's fair enough however not only has their been a fundamental shift in the demand for Rose but technical support has formed. @ZakMir picked it up before me so he has the cap badge here but I fully back his call that whilst the interference at 2.65p and 3p will be the obstacle on the way up! with all ups are down as both bull/bear trigger point's lie withing the chart from a technical perspective however the Rsi shows 52 as does the ascending price trend (bullish) remain in tact so until we have a full reverse confirmation I don't see 1.6p happening.

UK Oil & Gas: BMD has been on the naturist trail around the downs, a place were they have straw roofs and paint gnomes whilst bidding everybody a good afternoon and doffing cap's. A far cry from Dan's modest grounding fighting for a spot in the bed of 13 sibling's growing up on cabbage soup, anyway over to Ukog - The Lidsey well has seen the rig move off sight leaving the Ops team knee deep in the black stuff '' The hillbillies would have been proud '' however know the market waits for the update to open the door of upgrades as expectation is surly exceeded or met. The Horse Hill projects set to spud in July with crews now paving the way literally for the rigs movements. I look forward to a more detailed update from the infamous BMD soon...

In essence the shares have travelled along way since the 0.35p call on the blog a few weeks back however the bar has been set and I anticipate further meaningful moves but concede folk want to feel at ease too...

Frontier Resource: This week they announced its funding call at 1.5p for a pretty modest amount, the great surprise here was the CEO subscribing to £135,000 of the stock himself now that's confidence! more to follow on this story but watch this space and that of but remember that the CEO also waivers 70% of his remuneration which is very rare on the aim.

All the best


Sunday, 22 June 2014

DocsLaymanChatter XXI

Yet another busy week in the markets and of course I'm now running nearly a month behind for my summer break, with a trip down to mid Wales planned over the coming weeks and of course a longer than usual summer holiday penciled in I still find myself at only 40% cash not 80%.

This may seem an odd statement but I have been exposed or trading the markets over summer for years and never done particularly well during this period so made a promise to myself I'd take a layoff by this re-charging the batteries. Oil & Gas seems to have picked up the mantle held by the junior miners earlier in the year, clearly we are seeing the signs of a busy few weeks in this sector. Rose Petroleum seems to have private investors reveling after they announced their recent fund raise. £6.5m for a small company like this is pretty impressive and whilst the market was informed that the placing was oversubscribed I went off to chat to a city source to confirm the level of interest. Indeed the report came back that Rose pet looked to raise £5m yet the placing demand was incredible thus they agreed to move it up to house some decent industry money then scaled back others as the £6.5m demonstrated a great demand. (I hold stock to be clear)

Having seemingly shared some mixed words with my old buddy Tom Winnifrith regards our old spar Lenigas it was clear that regardless of who was right or wrong! Leni Gas & Oil released a correction statement 6 days after I flagged up there error. Now Tom didn't think it was a story and thats fine, '' I did '' In essence the correction was still out at sea but nonetheless it's been highlighted via RNS and the fact 6 days later tells us everything. I'm not worrying about this now as that battle has ended. I think my 32% short / sell call on LGO here shows that the understanding would have been rewarded should you have held an interest (I don't / have not to be clear) - The call was made here

After following the adventures of sheriff Winni down to the Quindell Agm I have to say '' Love him or hate him he does what he say's '' I think this is paramount as a journalist, writer, commentator or blogger. Many make the noise and fail to follow up with action. There is no doubt that Tom is a man that lets the actions speak as loud as his words, I enjoyed the video's of which you can see here.

Quindell what are you hiding?
Quindell I don't think you will be popular in the FT or Sunday times

Over to Astar Minerals, It would appear that I'm back up against James Parter and Tom Winnifrith with reference to Astar Minerals. James felt the companies valuation was wrong and Tom found holes in what he believes to be the news released by the company.

I have enjoyed both fellow writers work in the past and I certainly don't intend on locking horns over any a company with folk I know to be good writers, particularly those unafraid to ask awkward questions, so I intend to cover this based on fact and my own personal opinion.

Astar was a shell company with a legacy board and unworkable assets, the company sat on a shelf with nowhere to go until the new team initiated change. Andrew Frangos and Stefan Olivier came onboard from Cornhill Capital with a view to taking Astar into the oil and gas space in Mexico. We have been told since day one that the team jumped on a plane into country and you can hear the Chairman AF comments here In Andrews words '' We have been a team for nearly 10 years, We are young enough yet old enough through hard work to do deals which we are excited about ''

I covered Astar at 0.1p or 1p post consolidation which wasn't a bad shout when you consider it hit high's of 3.95p, I wanted to explain a little further as to how I could see this move shaping up against those who believe the company is overvalued.

Astar as a shell held £1m with a market capitalisation a little over that price so for me it was a case of, If the right people come in with the right idea's then we would see an uplift from the 1-1.25p area and quite quickly. Legacy holders represented a very small amount of the company so the upside would come in essence from the new money entering. With a hint of direction the share price nearly always rises as the seed of possibilities are planted and I believe this is what Astar has done '' Planted seeds of potential whilst forming meaningful relationships '' this does not mean Astar are fool proof or infact bullet proof but it does show that they have not done as many have before them and just either sat on hands taking wages / remuneration or as with another well known shell '' left legacy holders open to drive the companies value down '' so far so good then ay?

Not really as the sheriff of aim Tom has drawn pistols towards Astar too, I'm just waiting for the raft of open letters that he loves to pen, but will say this '' when Tom get's a bee in his stetson then usually he has good reason '' So off I went to try and look at the pro's and con's of Astar further. My findings and reasoning is quite simple.

If the CEO and Chairman had set this company up as a quick meal ticket with an insincere view then It begs the question?

Why would the CEO leave a young family to spend 3 months overseas for a very modest financial reward (if any at all) also why would two brokers in the city jeopardize their current and future business relationships for a relatively modest amount of cash. From some fag packet arithmetic the company could have (if disingenuous) pocketed a hundred grand but in reality that's chicken feed to sell your future out which is why I don't believe this is the case at all.

I believe Tom may have a point on terminology and whilst investors are pissed off at him right now I know how much value Tom holds, I have also enjoyed a pizza and beer with him and always found Tom to be a great guy, on this ground I won't be drawn into personal berating that I see in social media so please leave me out of that. I also see James Parters point on valuation although believe that using a nav calculation is insane right now as clearly it adds no par value to the recent news nor the possibilites born out of change.

I have no reason not to believe that Astar are working hard to do what they say will and until I find otherwise then I'm behind hard working folk also don't see a slam dunk case against them nor see a big enough agenda to warrant two guys ruining their professional futures.

The Jv with the Nogal's seems to have caused a stir but if we consider that the affiliations are through a subsidiary or other venture partnership in which this  relationship can be made perfectly clear then really what is the crime? '' Not being acutely correct '' well that was a point I raised last week but was a non-story.

Needless to say I called the CEO here who was on the move stateside to Mexico, I didn't hear the tone of doubt in either Stefan or Andrews voice but I accept I could be wrong.

Keep your peckers up


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

Monday, 16 June 2014

Another fine mess you got me into......

Ever felt confused by an RNS or the big numbers that jump out at you? Well my old buddy Gary Newman dropped out a tweet friday pointing towards such a blatant question of how the blinking heck does this statement add up:

· Company-wide oil sales, net to LGO's interest, totalled 111,774 barrels oil (2012: 58,450 barrels) an increase year on year of over 190%.

111,774 barrel increase from 58,450 is a 91% Increase so what the fucking hell does this tell us when its the headline act at the top of the 13th June RNS f? somebody stuffed a 1 before it which I believe asks a very important questions?

 Has there been a miscalculating in the year on year production increase? If so how can this happen?

Anyway I can understand how simple folk can make mistakes as I'm a simpleton myself, long in the arm and thick between the ears so can we clear this fact up!

When I pitched up at the UK Investor show I asked some questions to the chairman which caused the reply '' Doc you know nothing about releasing news to the market '' Well let me tell you thats correct I know jack shit I'm just a nuisance blogger but please let me reassure you I can use my fingers and toes to add up!
Take a look at the video here David tells us at 04.45min that we have doubled the fleet from 6 trucks to 14 WTF and 30 seconds prior assured me De Robillard is running 16 trucks around Africa.

Don't let me be the party pooper here and please accept I'm the same as every other mugpunter but could you answer these two questions:

1.) 6 x 2 = 12 not 14 where did the 2 extra trucks come from and why on earth would you make such a berk of yourself making that statement

2.) PDR is running 16 trucks around Africa? where, what and how is this happening?

As you say '' I know nothing about running an aim company or releasing news '' I suggest that I may not be the only one here....

Keep the pecker up


* (Note: I hold shares in Afriag)

P.s Remember this phrase '' There's no head room for a placing ''

Leni Gas & Oil released an edited version for clarity on the 19th at 17:10 - clearly the fact they did this means there was something afoot. Most people didn't give a hoot about this yet by virtue of pushing the point the RNS adjust came, I still believe there are questions but this battle is over.

Sunday, 15 June 2014

DocsLaymanChatter XX

Good Afternoon,

After a busy week in the markets and 2 days planning a world cup bash I pick up the market mantle and review some of the weeks developments. Before entering my reviews and thoughts I want to revisit a few points from previous posts over the year.

Anyone can trade the markets with their own money but most lose '' 90-95% approx '' Its worth remembering this fact when running with the pack! Only a small proportion can be successful, particularly when the markets are bearish. We have to preserve capital adding as much as possible but losing as little as you literally can, this is may seem a pretty obvious strategy but in essence robust simple principles are easy to follow although more importantly your financial bastion.

When the markets open up you exploit and when they contract like a venus fly trap you must have little capital exposure or risk. If you don't follow the the daily audio click here or a new launched financial website providing a daily market update, economic calendar, company coverage and much more click here  just a few tools to help navigate the markets although in reality every commentator has some '' great advice '' they think you should follow and most want £££ per year/month or pocket of information, my own advice would be '' simply find a quick solvent to dissolve the losing run ''

Lets look over a few companies as we round up:

UKOG: I mentioned UK Oil & Gas a few weeks ago here when raising a very different issue however the principle was regardless to personal feeling '' that getting ahead of the curve is particularly beneficial '' now 100% up where will UKOG go? In my opinion there is activity on the site which would mean a real monumental step up in public presence, this usually leads to a ramp up in PR and news flow leading to further gains. liquidity,volume are all indicators to follow.

Spitfire Oil: I stumbled over spitfire however the cash burn is low with its cash position twice the market cap. they trade are £2m with £4m in cash which really does highlight the disconnect between the markets valuation and the current share price. '' Don't be surprised to see this significantly higher based on a market correction'' shell companies have proven extremely rewarding in 2014.

Mosman Oil & Gas: The news was not firm enough to warrant this rise and whilst I anticipate a positive open on Monday morning I really do worry about private investors. AVOID this until the hype subsides. '' Looks overvalued ''

All the best


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

Saturday, 7 June 2014

Back To The Old School...

Hey guys were back in the room after the jedi distraction of last weeks events found here, without wanting to dwell on it too much i'd like to show thanks to a number of fellow bloggers,writers and investors for their words of support '' it can be thankless at times '' however the public support shows that some common decency exists. Tom has penned a piece here which alludes to the fact old Lenigas wasn't happy about the incident and refuted any claim he had any involvement. This was supported by a private email I received directly from the executive chairman yet publicly the only words directed towards me were to the effect of:

'' Leave Doc alone he's a good research journalist ''

You're not wrong old boy, which is why I find myself going native these days!!! This is the measure of these people, the clearly don't give a flying fuck who or how people may be hurt by the gravy trains pathway... Fortunately for me my skin is as thick as an elephants (Literally these days) so on that point we move to the markets.

Paternoster Resource: Disappointed with its end of year accounts, I expected much better from the chairman Nick Lee but some could argue '' why would you '' In reality there's the potential to make a go of it but the performance is well below the ftse 10-12% growth and miles behind my own p/f so on this basis I have started to wind back my core holding and now see Prs as a trade call. Unless the company make some serious changes quickly then i'd anticipate the same old results!!! Lady luck is not a strategy and the remuneration increase is simply a kick in the bollocks for shareholders.

( I retain shares / holding in prs - although a smaller number )

Leni Oil & Gas: I can see all the attraction to the second, third and fourth well all being drilled in quick succession and particularly the next hole entering the same location, leads to a universal conclusion '' it has to be further good news ''. Well that's a fair statement to make, expectation is growing out of control and the share price has rocketed on this basis. So what does this tell me? well one school boy error or an exodus of the money and the SP will tank. It's fair to say not many are adding balance right now but I'd be scaling back as i hit serious gains. The short term future looks rosy for now!!!

Hurricane Energy: When my old spar Gary Newman calls out a company like this it's normally worth taking down some notes. Not only is Gary a decent guy and friend he is also extremely ofay with managing his own risk reward, his calls on XEL have been incredible.

Over the summer I will be focusing more on the markets mechanics and the original reasoning for the birth of this blog. Public meetings coupled with the attendance of a number of AGM's will kill two birds with one stone. Anyone who wants to buy me a pint or receive one from me is welcome to come along. I'd be happy to share some brutal layman facts on the format the city works to in the AIM.

Click here for the weekend audio blog on RRL & LGO

Keep your pecker up and look out for a few trade / tech calls next week as we try to anchor some value into our portfolio's.

All the best


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Sunday, 1 June 2014

Bribery, Threats and Pussy

Be Prepared...

What an eventful week, As an activist, blogger, writer and all round Jack of all trades I wanted to share more than just my usual weekly musings on the markets. A decade or two ago Ireland was a very different place '' crying out for regeneration, reforms and most of all a cuddle '' today's Ireland is a very different place but as I would drive from the city to the suburbs I always remembered the Mural above:

                                         Prepared For Peace / Ready for War...

Having worked both sides of the divide I knew how to be unbiased and as diplomatic as possible, Mondays in Hatchet City aka Limerick and Friday's visiting friends on Sandy Row or bevvies down the legion on the Antrim road. Anyone who knows N.Irelands districts will be aware that driving around Mt. Vernon, The Shore Rd, Monkstown or Rathcoole may suggest which side of the fence one might appear to stand, In reality I hold no religious preference or personal one. Friends for life in Limerick with memorable nights in Hanrattys Hotel or paramilitary sympathising fund raisers (now theres a story)

Life in industry can be educational, It also presents many challenging encounters which knock the socks of a night in ChapelTown. Day one. of my two years in Limerick or the first flight into Aldergrove airport on a tiny twin propelled 24 seater! ignited the highs and lows of life on the Island, I found that a deep rooted and distinct similarity of north & south surfaced during my time there, this was the caring and kindness of the people who enjoyed a good craic!!! The other was the inherent belief systematically ingrained that the opposing people were trolls from a barren land. '' of course this was not the case! '' 

Vicious encounters sadly are a byproduct of such struggles, much of which has simmered over the years! however through personal experiences we learn how to deal with such cases which leads me onto the title of today's blog...

For sometime I have publicly raised concerns from around the 1p mark in the actions of Afriag Logistics after initially being something of a fan, ( For the record i still hold shares in the company ) After a number of failed attempts with the chairman David Lenigas to gather a follow up interview, I made formal arrangements to attend the UK biggest investor event to confront him ( which you can see here ) 
There was and is no malice in the questions i asked during the presentation, needless to say the share price continued to collapse as projected! I didn't need to throw out the banana skin as Mr Lenigas hardly filled the room with confidence as through his own admission he RTO into the wrong company...
Some might say he never locked up the hyenas from the 3DR days thus fuelling their exit at over inflated prices whilst selling the story of positivity to the newly named Afriag buyers. '' Talk about being caught in a crossfire '' oh golly gosh...

As I arrived at the UK Investor Show with a friend of mine I spotted the general smoking with another extremely large gentlemen, who I later found out to be (Ugly) Mick or at least that's the name he gave whilst he sat smug making wind and piss threats down the phone, more about that later. As the two guys entered the UK Investor Show together (witnesses can confirm) I approached David and requested we speak on this subject to avoid further embarrassment. Needless to say from the video above he opted out of doing so. - I will pause there now and move forward a month or so...

I recently had a meeting or an informal brainstorming over coffee, the meeting went quite well and i come away thinking the idea's we had generated could really make a difference to the way things were happend. However ironically the same guy has a material relationship with the general so quickly in conversation Mr X would insist I should refrain from making any detrimental public comments,factual or not as '' I'm not making friends with the right people '' (once again i stated clearly that i didn't need friends like this if the friendship was built on condition) So now we have Mr X who i shan't name now although reserve the right to later, insisting i apologise to Mr Lenigas coupled with a few weeks later a very dopey sounding over sized, out of shape, ugly (his words not mine) small minded, over egotistical divi with a low intellect threatening directly or indirectly through a series of what he must of thought were well worked out statements.

In order to clear this up personally I want to make a few comments of my own:

 I hold shares in Afriag.
You have been watching too many films.
 I've walked this earth long enough to know when to feel fearful. 
A fat shmuck making comments like '' a hit list '' or '' your child's welfare '' or perhaps the offer (bribe) of money £500 to buy a new stroller or '' show some love towards certain companies '' perhaps apologise to David and or let him stick his dick in my arse, really doesn't fill me with joy... ok so maybe the '' You don't know who your fucking with '' then some flannel about big (XL) boys taking out some action out against myself or my friends was going to get me clammy under the collar, I draw the line at this pathetic remark '' who got pussy '' Its not big nor clever ugly Mick...

The truth is this was an unsolicited, unplanned unwanted contact from somebody who has already shown intimidation tactics towards me (witnessed) was seen both outside and inside the venue with David so I now put it to you Mr Lenigas '' Is this gentlemen your friend? '' Do you have any knowledge as to why I would receive such calls and do you hold any material relationship in PLC business with this person? (Be Careful how you reply as proof has a funny way of surfacing)

Your IR friend Mr X quizzed me and now the person who you were smoking with outside the UK Investor Show ramps up his dirty tricks campaign!!! '' I give you ample time to respond to this public question?''

I will now concede whilst I await your response and wouldn't want to draw your attention to Click A  or Click B 

Today is yet again day one, as with my flight into bandit Belfast or my first encounter in hatchet city! Not only am I steadfast and undeterred, focus on UKOG it looks cheap and is now undervalued in its Horse Hill peer group, this was the company named by the big boys as a buy '' Perhaps that's leading but I only repeat the words shared with me, '' I won't be blackmailed '' see you on the otherside...

That's the markets folks, when you refuse to conform you become enemy no.1 to the prima donnas...



* BTW don't worry about making any trip to find me,per threatened as I'm likely to be attending the AGM and more and more city events, we can talk more then where you can explain exactly what you meant in that phone call, anyone interested in attending should message on my twitter feed Doc Holiday as the activism wheel has only just started its revolution...

*Note: All statements are supported by witnesses and proof I fully anticipate an attack on my credibility but lets remember this '' I'm just a modest lad from the north what threat could I really be ''