Saturday, 26 April 2014

Sound Oil

Recently I caught up with Sound Oil both prior and during the UK Investor Show on the 5th April. I shared my thoughts (Click here) Whilst at the event I spent a great deal of time meeting and greeting companies and investors alike, The event exceeded my expectation and to think this was only year two...

Sound Oil had one, if not the best stand at the event from a visual aspect and the very fact they had a comprehensive team in attendance really did echo how serious they were taking the event. Italian MD Luca Maddeddu presented the breakout room presentation (Click Here). Which really did start to show the shape and strength Sound Oil had made over the past 12 months, Both under the stewardship of Luca and Leo in Italy along with Stuart and James in London. The misfire of 2011 boils down to the company thrusting itself into the minds eye of many P.I's during a particularly bullish period in the markets, After a choppy couple of years divesting unachievable assets in Indonesia and reshaping the old Board we today see a streamline company with a proven method of value creation which formed its head of steam in Friday's announcement (Click here) of a £14 million injection at an average price of 9p from institutional investors Continental Investment Partners SA.

Operationally the company has Rapagnano delivering first revenues with Casa Tiberi on target to deliver first gas in 1H 2014 or first half of this year, these projects will keep the register ticking over respectably whilst the bigger success of Nervesa continues to prove rewarding. In September 2013 we were informed:

''A stabilised total gas flow rate of 2.7 MMscfd from multiple sandstone intervals in the Upper Miocene San Dona Formation .''

The Company is also pleased to confirm that, following a revision of its reservoir model for the full field, the P50 estimate of recoverable gas resources at Nervesa has increased from 21 Bcf (with an estimated NPV10 of US$58m) to 24 Bcf (with an estimated NPV10 of circa US$66m).

So with an increased recoverable resource proven at the Nervesa project which is already to spud a second well during the first half of the year which should initiate cash flows of $60m+ throughout 2015, coupled with game changing assets like Badile it seems straight forward to understand how the company managed to secure investment into the company on such favourable terms.

Badile should become apart of Sound Oils ever evolving active operations later in the year, to scale Badile against the respectable cash cow of Rap and CT-1 then its pretty much like Jack and the Giant beanstalk. The small seed of Badile has been planted and with is 60% increase on the previous CPR then we should start to see further high end growth creation from here (7p)

James Parsons, Sound Oils Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"Badile remains the largest and most strategic asset in Sound Oil's portfolio. We continue to prepare the Company for drilling this asset with a view to capturing the upside NPV, which now exceeds US$2 billion."

Full Rns here

Sound Oil feature on page 54 of Fridays times as '' Deal of the day '' I guess the front page is the next step for the small cap Mediterranean E&P company. I urge readers to now look at the transformational makeup of the board. '' If they can't do it then nobody can '' - Foundations look a lot stronger and with a much more robust asset portfolio.

28/04/14 Today's Q&A Live - Click here

Stay tuned (Click here for audio thoughts) follow me on twitter here

Onshore low cost deviated drill to offshore Laura asset anyone???

All the best


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Monday, 21 April 2014

Something Stinks....

Roger Lawson a self-proclaimed paragon of virtue EXPOSED
We often ask ourselves how independent opinion is in the markets? This brings me to Roger Lawson the Deputy Chairman of ShareSoc a body campaigning for transparency among PLCs and shareholder rights. Surely these self-proclaimed paragons of virtue are beyond reproach?

Lawson wrote a piece after the storming UK Investor Show speech by Ben Edelman slagging of the blinkx critic as a showman, a man with nothing new to say and a man paid to write bad things.

I commented originally here however I am afraid that I have new revelations about Mr Lawson that I must share with you.

The critical point here is that Edelman did have something new to say and it was damning about blinkx. I quote here from a recent shareprophets piece you can find HERE

Edelman’s standard research contract – as he explained on the video – is that he charges a fee for doing research and writing a report. But if the research shows nothing amiss there is no report so the fee is less. That is his standard terms– less work = less fee. He states that clearly on the video. That seem okay enough and at least Edelman is 100% upfront on any financial interest he may have in blinkx.

…. no other revelations of note?

1. Blinkx bought nearly all if not all of the assets of Zango a firm shut down and fined heavily by the FTC for breaking the law.

2. Edelman showed clearly that blinkx is now engaged in exactly the same activities, even using the same code.

3. So blinkx is breaking FTC rules – is that not a matter of concern?

4. Edelman then showed that the blinkx independent report had not examined any of the relevant data but had merely consisted of chats with blinkx execs who said they were doing nothing wrong. That is a bit of a shock revelation is it not?

In other words the Edelman presentation was explosive and damning. But Lawson gave comfort to blinkx fans and was widely quoted on bulletin boards for dismissing the whole thing and for rubbishing Edelman. But there was something City establishment figure and all round good fellow, Jolly Roger Lawson, did not bother to mention in his piece.

Roger owns blinkx shares. Yes you read that correctly. He has been on the shareholder for some time...

So while Roger denounces Edelman who does declare a financial interest, Roger himself does not bother to declare his own financial interest when penning an inaccurate character assassination of Edelman, he relies on an old admission to his interest in blinkx as acceptable. '' I beg to differ '' You see when penning such critic's I believe an open declaration a moral obligation whether that be owning a single share or a million.
I have pursued this line with the deputy chairman of a body campaigning for greater corporate transparency but his response was to (I won't quote) suggest i'm an idiot
I guess I just do not understand these City types. I am just a thick Northern working class git. So I would have thought that an “idiot” was one who wrote a wholly inaccurate piece giving a misleading impression of material matters about a stock which (undeclared) he owned. But as I said, I am working class and a Northern git so what do I know?

Roger is the expert on transparency and questioning companies that break the law so I guess I should just go back to my slum housing underneath the motorway and leave it to City gents like Roger to look after the interests of plebs like me.

All the best


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Tuesday, 15 April 2014

Mid Week Chatter


After what has clearly been a busy month and start of the 2014 I now intend to wind down somewhat for summer and write more in depth analysis on small-cap companies. I lost a few follows on my twitter feed when I moved up the ladder significantly into large capped companies, this was a deliberate effort to demonstrate that the principles applied know no bounds as long as you remain disciplined,dogged and determined. Ocado at 617p was about as good as it can get for me with regards to the big fish short bear cry however Tower (Trp) is a close runner up. It had been muted that I could only skin a cat one way or to be frank allegedly '' I was picking micro cap companies to manipulate '' I discussed this with a few people at the investor show and quiet typically refuse to hide away from difficult questions so rather than argue tooth and nail my moral stand point I simply believed that the calls further up the chain would vindicate me! I cannot be sure this remark won't be thrown at me again but for those that doubt my integrity find my publicly posted coverage here or across my twitter feed.

Tower Resources (Trp) 6.5p - Short Sell Currently 4.3p from a sub 4p take profits)

Ocado (Ocdo) 6.17p- Short Sell (Currently 328p)
Rolls Royce (RR.) 975p - Long (Closed out at 1050) Target high 1100+

A few we mulled over along with Tate and Lyle and one or two others, I'm firmly back in the driving seat and after a few questions thrown at Afriag chairman Lenigas I hold court on which way I'll take the responses as quiet clearly old Leni must have thought he had some minor victory when he announced '' Piss off Doc you know nothing about announcing news to the market '' Well I guess he has a point but then he doesn't have a very long memory as hours later he was sat barrel chested proclaiming why a company like his (I assume Lgo) and another well known small cap aim E&P company wouldn't merge.

In his words '' It would cost £1 million - why should/would shareholders have to foot the bill for that? ''

That's a great point indeed why should shareholders foot the bill for such stupid decisions? I leave you with this: LGO pursued a "weak and thin" case....

Who picks up the costs accrued from a case that is weak or thin which failed at every stage? click here

I mean the markets are awash with contradictions from narcissistic egomaniacs who may believe a small skirmish provides short term bragging rights..... '' Wrong '' We know that the convoluted manner in which the markets are designed are such that making forward progress can be extremely tiresome, many retail investors kowtow to its heavy weighted demands but should you decide to set your barometer to grind then the rewards can breach all of your expectations.

As for Afriag well I hope that the management take on board the simple needs of its shareholders and move away from the '' Its ours '' mentality, to correct iceberg's blog (which I salute you for) Afiag is not co owned by Paul de Robillard and Dave Lenigas - It is owned by you the shareholder.

The company is an investment company which reversed into 3dr (The vehicle) the result was Scottish enterprise owned a chunk of the newly formed Afriag by default so saturated the market with there sell off. Clearly this and one or two personal issue's (the major shareholders '' not owners'') has held Afriag down. without any doubt the board are now aware what its investors need, we wait to see if DL will even open dialogue.

To coin a phrase by Virgil - '' They succeed because they think they can '' so at risk of sounding a condescending pretentious git I'll move on.

Paternoster Resource: I covered PRS a few weeks ago when you could buy at 0.3p or a tad below, the company seems to be going through the motions again and from what looks to have been bottom. This time NL has forged a relationship which meant that getting the paternoster word out was easier. Click here coupled with EOY results due anytime and a change in direction of Asta,Andiamo,Nap and one or two other projects it seemed bonkers that the SP languished at the sub 0.30p level

African Potash: I mentioned Afpo in dispatches over on the shareprophets and have been asked why is the Sp preforming so badly after a great rise up from 2 to 4p. I guess the attention is on Elemental who had a firm offer from the Chinese, this deal looks unlikely which could mean if Afpo's technical guy Non Exec Dr Dorling has done his sums correctly then Afpo have a potash licence ready and waiting. This has to be where Marlow is assigning his time (quiet rightly) however we can but wait to find out. '' Would anyone decry a takeover? '' I suggest not.

Ashley House: Away from resource we have Ash, the company has been on the back of a torrid time as she slid from nearly 30p to 11p, things seem to be on the road to recovery and this little company could well be trading at double today's share price however patience is needed here for a solid 12 month investment.

Northcote Energy: Came to market on the back of a fashion in these onshore oil plays click here however over recent times we find Nct flat as a pancake scrapping the barnacles off the barrel in some respects. Being a stickler for recovery plays I addressed Northcotes ethos of identifying proven resources of a producing nature. Again another great start for an Oil & Gas company to actually have some of the black gold on tap. To split the atom of depression here. Nct has been down on its luck within, what is a less than buzzing peer group although the Ad. Doc. (Link provided) shows that the marketcap is now at that of the assets cost. $10m back in 2012 so how much downside is there at £5-6m? Not alot hence my suggestion it will lift

All the best


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Saturday, 12 April 2014

BrokerManDan - Back In The Saddle




BMD - Takes No Cheap Shots From Bob

Recently we received word that Dan had yet again defied the bully boy attempts of the legal system, Dan I believe had some business dealings with a local builder who mistakenly thought BMD was all mouth and no trousers. '' Big mistake on all accounts '' Bob (The builders name remains anonymous) confronted Dan flexing his guns and offering typical bully boy threats before attempting to clout the old war horse, Dan's a tidy scrapper from up this neck of the woods and doesn't take shit from anyone particularly not jumped up Bob with his fake suntan and popeye like arms.

Needless to say the act of self defense and defiance sits my old mate BrokerManDan at the top of financial hard knocks, I weighed him up when I met in Manchester during 2013 and while his polished appearance may have some believing Dans been put out to graze, I judge a man by the pace they walk (quick) along with the size of their hands! I'd hazard a guess that BMD will remain marching on many a battle front shaking his fist with disapproval before being retired to the upper paddock.

Welcome Back


Monday, 7 April 2014

Ben Edelman @ UK Investor Show 2014

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I had the great pleasure of meeting Prof. Ben Edelman and regardless of personal belief or the very fact I'm simply a dumb Northerner '' thick in the head and broad in the shoulder '' the findings were compelling nonetheless. Typically the retail investing worlds forums lit up with misinformation both regarding Mr Edelman's attendance of the show, allegedly he was stuck at a London airport whilst immigration/passport control held Mr Edelman which could well of prevented him even making the show Saturday afternoon. Typically this a great example of Blinkx bulletin board fodder attempting to create a storm in a teacup, I met Ben Friday and unless he has a twin or it was scotch mist i witnessed then he was in town well in advance of the UK Investor Show on 5th April so conclude categorically that Prof. Edelman had safely arrived in London days earlier and without complication.

The blinx story or in fact Edelmans wasn't one I had particularly followed too closely until the findings were published early in the year, at this point my spider sense triggered '' How clear cut could it be? '' I mean not being a boffin or educated man I held some anticipation as to how clear cut his findings would be to understand to the layman. Within minutes it was quite apparent that this was not a new case with FTC shutting down and reforming these practises in the U.S so how and why is Mr Edelman in town talking about blink? Blinkx appear to have inconsistencies in its practices/transparency of which highly profitable yet dreadfully unethical.

I read a report by sharesoc which appeared to be fair in all of about half of its content thus the other half representing something very different than my experience. To label PBE '' not a modest man '' has absolutely no bearing of his ability to bring to surface the dirty business of the Internet which is fast becoming a lucrative frontier for criminality,unethical practices and much worse. In my opinion a disingenuous man could have focused on his achievements of becoming a professor at Harvard at 27 or perhaps his web sheriff reference by Nobel prize winning economist Alvin Roth (cough ''the wild west'') or his aunt Marian Wright Edelman a civil rights and children's advocate or his uncle Peter who resigned his position within the Clinton administration in demonstration against a law that required welfare recipients work, his parents (Father) Daniel a civil rights attorney or (Mother) who works to prevent abuse, I suggest this may explain an inherent passion for '' the greater good or perhaps all that's right '' The business community would have you believe that Mr Edelman is a loose cannon standing alone as a paid mercenary rather than a freedom fighter however I refute these claims and believe that had Ben Edelman '' not been modest '' then he certainly could have hammed up his historical family associated battle;s to correct '' bad practices '' whether as web sheriff or not

'' This is helping make the Internet a better place, said Brian Kenny, Harvard Business School’s chief marketing and communications officer.''

David Vladeck, former director of the FTC’s consumer-protection bureau, said his agency also followed his work and sought out his advice. Now a Georgetown University law professor, Vladek groups Edelman with a small cohort of Internet activists and technical experts, including Ashkan Soltani and Stanford University’s Jonathan Mayer, both known for their crusades for consumer privacy.

Its tough to pick a hole in his presentation which will go live and viral pretty soon but my interpretation of the presentation were Mr Edelmans findings rightly open debate on the practices of just one of many and whilst blinx refute most of what Edelman says its pretty clear that the legal team sat in front of me were looking far more concerned than the man on the stage.

I believe uncertainty will bring negative expectancy thus the result a bigger hole in the pocket of faithful shareholders of blinkx but you cannot blame Edelman for presenting the hole in the boat of blinkx. I have no material interest and never have nor do I have the intellect of Prof. Edelman but from a layman's viewpoint it was very revealing and very well presented.

We will see how the markets and legal team take and counter but there was no rebuttal by blinkx.

We watch and wait but the risk has increased once again for those of you looking to buy.

Keep your pecker up...

Click  here for Ben Edelman Interview  - 8/4/14 (Response)

Click here for the Full UK Investor Presentation by Ben Edelman

Click here for latest Ben Edelman Release - 9/4/14 by Ben Edelman