Wednesday, 27 March 2013

Motive Television Plc (Mtv:Ln)

10 Billion Shares in Issue

10 Directors and Senior Management members

One Vision

Okay folks some midweek chatter and perhaps a reality check for all the investors awaiting a significant rise to: 1p fantasists 10p and Martians £1...

Lets look at 2013:
Issue of equity announcements 8 times

Start 5.5Bn shares in issue

7th Jan
29th Jan
4th Feb
18th Feb
1st March
6th March
15th March
22nd March

To Date 10.39Bn Shares in issue

Guys I don't want to piss on any ones chips here but you have a company that have issued more stock than Lenigas on meth amphetamine!!!

Retail investors need to get with the reality of this company who's major shareholders are mainly nominee accounts (Other words Joe Bloggs down the dog and duck)

I was tipped to Buy and asked to cover Motive (MTV:Ln) In the last bunch of accounts the company appear to be losing three times more than they are making yet reducing there loss by 18% wow...

There tangible assets hold little value with the intangible assets £9m or in other words the company is losing cash quicker than global bankers and really have a book worth of potential which may or may not come to fruition but the question i would be asking right now is does it take 10 people to make a royal cock up?

The company are burning much more than they are making and are setting the benchmark lower than a snakes belly in the self harm of dilution...

I'm not going to spend to much time looking at the product's and services as it could easily be snatched away from them when you look at the state of affairs on the surface...

Good luck to all holders and if there is a sniff of profits then lock them in...

Until next time kitty Kats 

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Monday, 25 March 2013

Stratmin Global Resources (STGR)

When Did The Penny Drop?


A little while back I was contacted about Stratmin Global with a great pitch no doubt echoing the great words of the one and only dynamic Red Hot Penny Tipster Tom Bulford, Having looked briefly at the board of directors Stratmin appointed I hardly fell about with the excitement levels that Mr Bullford seemed to have in regards to the imminent potential being released.

Having addressed the maverick journal along with the RTO data thus now trying to establish this early significant attraction which TB projected at 66p, I found myself drawn to making a quick call to a friend out in Europe whom I toured the industry with. We spoke long and hard of the slow down in refractory associated industries that would house the graphite based bricks such as Steel,Glass and Cement and we also debated on the ever evolving methodology of lining furnaces/incinerators/vessels with a rammed/gunned lining apposed to brick... The outcome was clear, Speed and cost seems to take pole position.

This confirmed that the industry once heavily reliant on brickwork installation had moved on as it struggled through the last decade. This is not to say that speed and budgeted cost are delivering the best outcome it simply means the evolution of the industry since 2000 has relied on these principles.

Although the old school products such as refractories and crucibles are playing second fiddle to the mod high tech industry use its worth noting a ' Old School +3.7% forecasted rise in refractory production and growing demand as the industry rebounds in 2013 ' Particularly in the US.

Now after the glory days of £1.20 being targeted or the investors dream of  reactor pebble bed lets hit the backside of reality right here: The stock has had a rude awakening pulling back 31p with a Full fib retrace. The stock looked oversold via the technical indicators Friday with the share bouncing back to 37.5p indicating a bullish engulfing of the Thursday session, However I would leave a proportional percentage of your proposed investment pot for the possible 31p retest we have to remain scantly aware of the European uncertainty and its effect across the markets

Today's Buy rating has taken into consideration stratmins slow turn of foot as well as the global mining sector  receding (Bwming Index showing a low point in 2013). China and India's data appears to be sending out mixed messages which again is not helping the industry or investment opportunists.

''Graphite is one of the most interesting areas in mining at the moment, and one driven by the same fundamentals as rare earth elements.''

Lets look at the pro's

Large flake graphite is used in higher tech applications such as, Smart phones,lithium batteries and pebble bed reactors to name a few. The production at stratmin is 12,000t of graphite, large flake high quality graphite which in its raw format is forecast to a six fold rise in demand by 2020. Stratmin have an indigenous board on the ground in Madagascar who are on the verge of securing delivery of its milestone shipment to the US  along with resource upgrades forecast to double production figures from further appraisal of both of its licences.

The firm expects to be able to sell its product for US$1,400-US$1,600 a tonne, with extraction costs in the order of around US$500 a tonne demonstrating decent clear margin which is feasible and beneficial to most economic environments.

The speculation comes from the near term transparency that the low cost producers are sure to highlight although until such a time i recommend reducing risk as the stock moves towards a initial 50p Target Price leaving some margin to average in.

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Sunday, 17 March 2013

Bulletin Board Avatars

Avatars on stock market forums has been a bone of contention or subject of integrity for some time, Which leads me to this subject matter and in response to questions of '' Who if anyone do I rate in regards to BB posters. ''

The reality is you really don't know who's of good stock (Pardon the pun) and who's not! We also have little Idea of understandings or skills set one-another may have accrued over there investing/trading life span.

I can honestly say from my own experience that I have spoke with many Avatar/Id's over the years and only a small number to date have demonstrated a true,clear and comprehensive knowledge rather than the hoards of dilettante fools playing at it.

I'll review a few old guys who still mingle on LSE in particular my old haunt before they decided to ban me for offering a obtuse view point on OPE as around that time a collective were projecting bumper numbers and results which '' Heck you guessed '' Never came.

These posters are respected and proven and damn good at what they do:

GaryN  ~ Great guy and proven in his acute stock picking
Philski~ A poster with Industry knowledge and modest manner
MJ84   ~ Top rate poster with a keen eye for numbers
SteveJ ~  Sareums resident long termer and totally decent bloke

I think these 4 are people you could question and expect to get a high quality response from a historically proven person.

I'm not going to forget the Taters,Jamie012002,Crude,Zorns etc However its important to focus on those willing to interact regularly and have the skills set to offer the level of response you as a newbie wet behind the ears or a failing investor lost and looking to get some relief into there investment portfolio

I won't comment to much on the relentless dogged actions of the charlatans that incessantly bark at my word.

Drosso2 ( A guy who couldn't Identify a legitimate outcome from a fantasy )
Wassatt (Angel Mining's top ramper who appeared on a crew mailing list)
BrickBradford ( Ex oil man who doesn't know his onions from his olives )
Pornix ( More threats than Gaddafi ~  Although I still wonder to this day why I received images of a burly bloke in red stockings wearing only a stetson!!! '' The mind boggles '')

Or a few poor soles that target the Doc Holiday name as they were stung on grade A pump in Leed Petroleum,Whilst I was asking genuine questions these folk were quacking the same tune as the counterparts hinged with what they believe to be fact and life changing information which turned out to be a dung beetles dream (similar to the Usopians or the Ope Investors)

I only give reasoned opinion and refuse to hold grudges against anyone as often the people who suffer most are those that have been sucked in by the markets or a group of ruthless traders.

Before I'm labelled narcissistic I do have to say '' I hold myself in the highest regard '' And regardless what your personal thoughts are on me there is a message amongst this Sunday drivel

Good Luck


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and is not adopted as statement of fact)

I think Sadaat may have found his own ability to accept a obtuse of contrary opinion difficult and though a nice enough chap he may not yet hold the minerals to moderate groups successfully

Thursday, 14 March 2013

Global Petroleum Ltd (GBP)


Today's Buy recommendation comes in light of the Half Year results released showing a strong cash position and dynamic move into further joint venture/partnerships.

Market Cap £13.8m
Cash £14.8m
Net Assets £21.8m

In 2013, post the reporting period, the company is actively moving forward with the farm out and a data room has been opened for invited companies to review the Permit. In addition to the farm out, the focus of Global's efforts will be to map the additional play fairways in increased detail and thereby develop an expanded portfolio of prospects and leads, perform further geochemical work to better understand the timing of oil generation and migration in the area.
Northern Capital have continued to reiterate there 18.1p Buy Recommendation and whilst 18p may seem optimistic as these broker valuations often do, What is clear is the Cash covers the Market cap by £1m coupled with the total net assets the company is a safer option in small cap O&G (High risk) Exploration sector.
As we head towards stormy waters in the markets correction to record highs it perhaps time to address the high risk sector with the consideration it needs, It is all to familiar to see over inflated company valuations but you can't hide from facts and that is cash is more likely to be a decent asset in itself in the coming months rather than some high profile possibility that may never become anything other than a possible.
Global Petroleum's trajectory is to sell off assets,De-risk and farm-out and Into projects which offer a decent reward for reasonable risk. They have a bunch of cash and trade down on a real low at 7.6p which presents a opportunity to stick some risk into the portfolio from a de-risked position as the company trade at 30% discount to value.
"The board continues to review opportunities for other acquisitions, joint ventures, or investments in the resources sector, which may enhance shareholder value and the Company will continue to evaluate new opportunities as they are presented."
The dual listed E&P company offer value right now, Which should be translated into the share price of the company over the coming months with multiple pieces of news with a broad pioneering frontier in Namibia which Exxon Mobil themselves appear to be working on creating a breakthrough.

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Wednesday, 13 March 2013

Midweek Chatter ~ Attraction to significant gain

As we see the crazy rises across the board in Aym,Tps and Neos to name but a few. Clearly the Markets makers and the collective forces at be are working tirelessly to maximise unrealistic rises in single sessions by squeezing every ounce of enthusiasm from its partaking crews.

The wild and exciting arena that offers instant riches appear to much for any novice or experienced Investor/Trader yet the catalyst to your outcome is the ability to circumnavigate these situations and take profits before your left with a 30%,50% or even 70% negative in your position, Suddenly the boards go quiet and the tumble weed rolls through town with the resident smoking guns gone. Many novice and inexperienced traders sit shell shocked at the terminal at what seemed a great investment with a party like atmosphere.

This is specifically designed to be this way and when the MM see opportunity they will make there money all the way up and down, Its there job to!!! 

The recipe was correct with market and the investing/trading collectives 

Sucker punch

When we look at the stocks mentioned these are only recent examples to the layman and nothing personal as one hooks up with Tata and another has holdings announced you could argue the rise is warranted and I'm not against that or disputing it although I am projecting a serious need to question oneself when joining into these wild and dangerous environments.

Are you fully aware of the risk?
Do you have the skills set to navigate the play?
Is this a realistic environment?
Have you really set your stall out with fundamental and TA research?

I'm not here to tell your granny how to suck eggs I'm appealing to those who are set to suck there first egg and prevent it lodging firmly in there throat. 

Plenty more to come this week and Twitter has a few stock thoughts...

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

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Wednesday, 6 March 2013

Sound Oil & Gas Exploration

Sound Oil plc

Sound Oil Review

My Initial statement is this review was ready for release at 6.5p and I see that level to 7.5p a profitable place to be over the next few months.

Sound Oil plc are a highly dynamic and innovative company embarking on a very real and true push into production and high impact exploration across Italy.

The story so far as I see it is Sound Oil have fully restructured the company after a failed PSC in Indonesia. The company appointed a new and highly regarded CEO in James Parsons who was incidentally CFO for 12 months prior, James comes from good stock with a Royal dutch shell background from 1994-2006 working as part of a global team in London,Denmark,Brazil,Holland and Santa Domingo He then went to Inter Pipeline Europe 2006 - 2011 before being appointed at CFO at Sound Oil 2011 and CEO in 2012.

The company has a very different feel as they are heavily funded (to the tune of about £9m) and on the cusp of change with 1st Gas at rapagnano and the drilling commencement (Spud) of Carita (Nervesa) a high value and Ex-Agip concession in the North which was last operated 30yrs ago. (80's) and signed off when it was $15 a barrel With the barrel traveling between $90-$100 consistently for £37m NPV and 21 Billion cubic feet (Bscf) recoverable it is clear there is significant value attainable, taken from a very low risk position 1:3-4 COS.
The permits/concessions and drilling contracts are all in place and ready to spud Q1-2 2013

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Sunday, 3 March 2013

Outlook For March 4th - 8th 2013

Outlook - Bull Amongst The Bears

After a awful weekend of relocating the family its time to try and find the longs in what looks a shorters playground. We look at a few stocks that I've been happy to chat about here and across other out lets.

Jkx Oils looks a Bull in the Bear market
( 80p Target Price )

Xel Looks a Bull which shall transfer straight to the Bears for some further gains and then a swift pull back.

Paternoster Resource: Hold the key to Pandora's box in the End of Year results, Some disclosure first on the companies position and then update next weekend

RockHopper look to be cheap at 140p (As reported on twitter 150p up with enough to top up at 130's in a bear market)

Solo Oil has the rumour mill turning over potential deal that's pending ( 0.629p looks top unless the actually land the GIANT of deals.... As we know the norm is crazy rumours and little likely hood )


With Oil falling to 2013 lows and the doom and gloomers out in full force its perhaps time to consider the Gold rebound that's looming, I hear the drops to ridiculous lows as real possibles but then that's the bears making all the noise. My thoughts are Gold will rebound and once the more bullish city folk get on top we'll see a more realistic Gold value, Should the summer come early then we all know how they go from paper to solids leaving the stocks and taking in the commodities (Again good for gold).

Follow the gold trial and the companies that present value right now

Shanta Gold 18p
Orogen Gold 0.42p
VGM 21p

One to follow MML (Australian Goldy)

Chiffa Chats

On what are always entertaining chats with my old mate chiffa ' The King Of Swing ' I deliver these words.

ICH long for 5% at 1930
HOIL long for 10% at 187p
TT. short at 325 for 10% down to 290p
PFD short for 10p at 88p
Average trade is 7 working days
PS. XEL short like fuck at 123p
One of the universal features and a position I have adopted strongly is swing trading which has delivered far more profits in poor markets than Investor Holding, Hands down and In my opinion there are not many better at this than Chiffa in the retail world.
The markets don't have a great outlook but hey a shot of redex and the markets a buoyant again!!! The problem is we seem to be to high with the obvious eventuality is a right old pull back....
This is the market and this is the game we are apart.
We could spend all day shouting from the rooftops about the fundamentals of a company or the historical data but unless the square starts to fit through the triangle when the worms turned we have to get out of the water or follow the current rather than swim against it
well folks a brief one tonight as busy following the drip of rainwater on the window...
Remember take some off the table and de-risk those positions, Protect the capital and don't get sucked into the vile pumping of stocks and those that orchestrate it.
All the best Doc
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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Friday, 1 March 2013

*USOP* Update

Basic as a badgers arse

Having looked at some information, Researching/Investigating Us Oil and Gas I felt compelled in a previous blog post to throw the Usopians a bone!

The genuine Investors are being peppered with lead daily as the bigger and more aggressive marketeers rule the roost and suppress sensible thinking with Jedi mind tricks....

One threatens me with libel for quoting a email received in June 2011 by the author who was himself, '' Stone the neighbours Dog ''

I have to say that I do believe they will flow Oil from Eb1 which is a result within itself if you look at Wildcat drilling,

From what I hear Usop have some Oil but they have a S-Club7 like collective commentating across various outlets...

I'd start to be wary of the longtermers as they have been around long enough to get wise to the game play that the markets have to offer and generally have an association one way or another, I however feel happy to comment as things unfold and I'll happily change my opinion on possible/potential positives and negatives brewing under the surface as the project plays out...

After wild threats when reporting this company its clear that there is a huge bunch of bad feeling amongst investors/traders alike, I can confirm I have never held a position or intend on it until Usop find a listing outside Gxg or the alleged Kaiser house.

I now draw attention to the high impact wildcat play and potentially ground breaking acreage Usop hold, With some of the donkey work out of the way and hydrocarbon shows in the drilling report (Sign of O&G) Its time for the company to analyse yet again there data...

Did it migrate?

Are there problems at the hole with waxing/separation or gunk as Knapp refers?

Sources familiar with the Hot Creek Valley operation have told the I-Team that, in addition to light crude and the thick gunk, Nevada is known for a third grade of oil, something akin to the Texas-quality crude that is the standard in the industry. The company needs time, perhaps months, to figure out how much is out there

On the contrary In Elko County, an even bigger oil project is being launched. Noble Energy, an international oil firm, is investing up to $300 million to look for oil in the shale-rich deposits near the town of Wells.
"Noble Energy is pretty excited about our position. We've established 350,000 acres in leases in Elko County. We have a tertiary age project. We think it could be full of oil," Jeff Schwarz.  "Noble Energy is pretty excited about our position. We've established 350,000 acres in leases in Elko County. We have a tertiary age project. We think it could be full of oil," Jeff Schwarz.

Should Usop be one of the very lucky ones and hit the highs similar to Felix Baumgartner! In this kind of drilling in the geographical location I'd say that the sub quid buyers will see profit...

However we are talking hundreds not thousands of Bopd Imho with Eb2 rumoured to be having the pads set down its possible the spud goes in before the results come out on Eb1... Which in itself could feed more happiness into the retail world!

Companies have to work hard to recover Oil in this region and from a well with a tough C.o.s, So to be fair to the crews on the hole it may be more constructive to focus on what drives the market/company your invested rather than the testing outcome right now. '' I've seen share prices fly just before a announcement on dusters and on the contrary fall just prior to a gusher ''

There are ruthless unscrupulous folk in the stock markets and none more so than those invested (Probably trading) US Oil and Gas...

I'm glad to counter this with some decent honest folk... 

All the best Doc  

Wake up to the illusions
Wake up to the honesty and its keepers
Wake up to the mechanics that drive it
Wake up to the reasoning
Hope & Good Luck is state of mind
(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and are not statements of/or matter of fact)