Tuesday, 15 March 2016

Holding The Cat By The Tail - 88E & MTR

During the last few weeks It would seem that offering an opinion has been met with an unhappy response, if you dare to offer a contrary view or in fact question a valuation you are dragged over the coals and hung out to dry! ironically enough most of the companies mentioned and gaining the most attention over recent weeks are companies that I've either penned articles on earlier in the cycle (at a much lower share price) or I've held ongoing relationships with management. 

A year ago I penned an article on the decline of social media along with the psychology of junior market participants (Investors) today it would seem a war zone by the virtue that your subject to vitriol if you offer up a side order of reality. Below I link a few articles that are completely overlooked instead replaced by the unsophisticated approach of decrying democracy or free speech. At risk of sounding like Tommy gun I accept that those that really don't know any better react this way but its the sure-fire way to lose ground and quickly. I accept calling top or going against the tide can be a pain at times but life's full of chores. 

Interview by myself with PJ or Metal Tiger here conducted in 2014  (always happy to offer PJ a platform and in fact urge he consider revisiting the story for interview) he could explain how the business '' Metal Tiger '' warrants today's £12m market cap based on data. Grab/soil samples, drill samples and rock chip samples coupled to heavy director buying. As I understand these type's of results so far are not enough to give a JORC compliant resource estimate. Adding a well-heeled director or chairman offers no guarantee although accept that true quality is hard to come by. As things stand my opinion is it smacks of spoofing the market, I have no problem in commending PJ and his team nor do I have an issue in commending investors who have made a turn from MTR however It's pertinent to understand how today's valuation has arisen. Paul and I would often talk about the lack of valuation being given to a company which was working hard to get noticed and prove it's concept.I'd like to see the now CEO give a rationale on £12m valuation and where Metal Tiger is in the cycle? 

Clearly the concept is good or at least has now been accepted by the markets, I just feel that to advance operationally then the company will need capital finance or investment to do so. Which explains why commenting on the reality of today's state of play is such a hard pill to swallow as the savvy or the certain GR Inv. friends know as I do that this really isn't being taken seriously on its merit. I wish PJ, MTR and all investors the best of luck and should this continue then I'd say it would do so firmly supported by a bull run or super cycle in the commodities area they focus. If anyone can make things work its a spivy accountant and a 100 bagger chairman in Grammer. 

88Energy oh the initial bain of my life, late last year I covered this company suggesting that now was time to consider the buy case or punt on the company, The article is here: Titled ''time to punt on 88Eneregy'' the shares traded at 0.50p yet calling for people to consider derisking at 0.90p and consequently scaling back further or in total at 2.65p was met with a backlash from the faithful 88 investors following a Waco style investor commune in believing the business is fair or worse undervalued at a £110m market cap. I've covered much of my rationale to buy and sell (even if the imbeciles only choose to focus or see me as negative) however the testament of time will show true value.

The train wrecks coming, just remember who whooped and hollered for you to '' jump on-board ''



Monday, 29 February 2016

The Best Thing About The Future Is It Comes One Day At A Time...

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In November 2015 I looked at ECR Minerals a company I followed back in the days when the Ex Director and CEO at Metal Tiger was a mere mortal private investor himself, this was a company that had a whole host of problems namely the board that were in place at that time. After shareholders voted to remove the board Mr Clayson took office as top trump, some could argue he made it there by default or as trusted confident to the group that voted the old management out (Hartford & co) During 2015 it was clear that the company was not clearing debt quick enough to give itself enough opportunity to get back to market to refinance. 

I spoke with a number of city related parties in 2015 who agreed that things looked tight for ECR, however the conclusion was drawn that if ECR could clear the YHA death spiral and acquire enough capital on an interim basis then the business stood a chance to gasp air before swimming ahead, shares had traded in a liquid fashion at approx 0.05p-0.08p as it transpired Mr Johnson of Metal Tiger agreed the idea wasn't such a bad one and himself proceeded to offer the company money although with a twist. The bar was set at 0.02p (Heavily discounted to the earlier sessions building up to it)  

At this point it was clear that the convertible debt remained in place and it was my view that the slack was expected to be taken up by retail punters, once the loan notes were satisfied there would be a pre placing string of news at which point the financiers (Inc MTR) would be presented with an opportunity to sell at a level that very few genuine investors in ECR (A company the MTR CEO was an Ex Director) could take advantage of.

This was an opinion I had based on my findings as it was clear that there were city related options open to ECR yet they chose to run with MTR and a select group, I want to state that if MTR had supported ECR (As publicly stated) through to them satisfying their funding needs before dumping its position then I would hold a very different point of view which is why over the last 12/14 weeks I've simply stated my funding concerns for ECR and remained observant. However this has not been the case!!! ECR still needs money (Death Spiral, CLN,Placing surly coming) with support now very thin. 

Metal Tiger hardly set the bar high on support and in the face of funding needs, it will be interesting to see what part Metal Tiger, The Birmingham Boys and the GR Investors have played in this awful mess. (That's a story all of its own, why? how and who are the backers which causes Metal Tiger to travel up to Walsall and surrounding regions to regularly present)

At this point I want to state that other than applying market mechanics and logic I'm simply observing, asking questions and noting events which have taken place, ECR is typical of many companies listed on aim where constant funding results in little to no material progress thus rarely rewarding those funding the business, clearly one or two clever instrument providers may make a quick turn or an old board member and friend but what about the little man, what have they seen returned under the Clayson's stewardship? 

There's a number of questions about the musical boardroom chairs, the grass root investors of the midlands coupled to the after market approaches of those attending events to welcome '' The group of HNW Investors mission statement of buy more shares '' 

Somethings just doesn't sit well with this chain of events so more due diligence is needed, I welcome any infoformation on the companies mentioned before drawing any conclusion. 

All the best 


Saturday, 23 January 2016


ShareProphets was a hive of activity on Friday lunchtime as Tom was blindfolded, spun around a thousand times and then asked (by Brokerman Dan) to publish an article. This to me smacked of the typical modus operandi of someone jumping up and down, making noise to gain attention. On Friday two barrels declared war on a number of City boutique broker houses. I wonder if that war will see capitulation as quick as the war he declared against the ShareProphets site.

The obvious thing I see is a complete lack of common sense from Tom (by allowing the shite to be spun here) along with an embarrassing contradiction of where the '' FIGHT '' lies or who its held by. I remember Tom and Dan referring to Ben Turney as flip flop - Really… #JustSaying

OK over to a few points that have gripped my shit over the last few days.

I'll start with the commentary yesterday against the two named broker houses. For the avoidance of doubt I'm as cautious of brokers as I am of a dodgy second hand car salesman telling me his 25 year old Escort XR3i has only covered 13,000miles from new. They all talk a lot of pony; however on this occasion I felt compelled to share my own experiences.

I have delt with half a dozen of these houses in the City including the two named in Friday’s blasting by a convicted armed bank robber #JustSaying, I have to say that my experiences overall have been good with a number of brokers (of which I have dealt) delivering a clear and concise message, which left me with little doubt. Business was always a focus but there were also a number of helpful pointers shared on other things from FX trading (by the way Bill Holiday comes highly recommended) to looking at ISA options. The young mavericks can often be uber useful.#JustSaying

It disappoints me to think that a certain theme or line is followed by the comments shared on this site. ShareProphets’ readers made their feelings visibly clear in the comments section of yesterday’s piece and it seems many of them share my misgivings about its publication. So much so on Friday evening the slow mumbling of '' The Block Tom Winnifrith Campaign '' started to surface. Personally I value Tom and believe his exposing companies has been invaluable, to block that is similar to closing your eyes to a problem however the movement looks to be gaining traction and that won't be good for either the blocker or the blocked. I call on people to deploy some common sense.

( Note: I accept that investors have a right to decide on what they support or what they do not.)

I joined Tom back in the very early days of ShareProphets and have been an unequivocal supporter publicly, although at times disagreeing on points or in fact arguing the toss as can often happen. I put this down to a healthy dislike for spivvy toffs playing at being from the streets, whilst shoveling smoked salmon, asparagus and eggs benidict down their cake holes, smoking with their pinkies up.
That aside Tom’s a good stick and one who more often than not gets it right. On this occasion he was wrong in my opinion #JustSaying.

What happened in 2015 with Sefton Resources (no matter how much flannel is thrown over it) was a total mess, which quickly developed into an absolute disgrace. I see the phrase pump and dump bandied about like a war crimes’ act by certain folks. I guess the Sefton mob that advised people to buy whilst selling and vice versa or the main players who proclaimed they weren't selling as the alleged turn around into Indonesian Oil assets would see the share value accelerate towards 1p in fact used the inflated market interest to cash in #Justsaying. Finally let’s not forget that £1 salary, which quickly became a £50,000 exit fee coupled to a healthy option package – before all that awkwardness over the ex-directors identity!

I suggest that a pump and dump (in the most obvious format) played out in front of our eyes, with the main advantage to the scallywag was Sefton issued options and the remuneration buck shee...#Justsaying

But getting back to my main point, I also would like to point out at his point that my involvement with City boutique brokers is new (overall during my time in the markets). I do limited business as I'm from the tight arse north and not particularly wealthy, thus prefer to execute 80% of my trades business with Hargreraves Lansdown. I won't say that all brokers are good guys as in my opinion they're an evil necessity '' I mean how dare they make money when you are'’.
Bad ones of course make money whilst pissing your million quid down the swanny #Justsaying.

My last point is MX Oil a company I have supported since its conception, Predominantly its presence in the markets has been positive and profitable for investors. A tiny £1m shell company that accelerated to over £10m market cap in no time at all (#JustSaying), as it fought to win potentially world class assets in Mexico and gaining a revenue stream from production in Nigeria. In a depressed oil environment where lots of people hurt, I'd say overall the company has performed quiet well.
I'm not sure how much help it has been publishing the potential fundraise price of the company on the ShareProphets. The company was completely open about its funding needs prior to the potential to raise which was mentioned in a number of articles. I see it as counter productive as it actually weakens the chances of a favourable price which in turn hands a bigger % gain potential to the dreaded flippers. Again I'm not sure how well that was thought out by the editor but I'm sure he'll lambaste me for today’s coverage so welcome an explanation. #Justsaying

On the last note, I suggest that MX Oil (whilst not particularly impressive of late) will hopefully overcome any near term hurdles and jump back like all well run companies should. #JustSaying
The testament of time will demonstarate that -/+ 

Keep your peckers up



*Note: I submitted the article to Tom (Editor @ Shareprophets) who declined to publish this piece, I wish to state that Tom has never stopped me from writing about companies good or bad. The shareprophets is an excellent site with an incredibly talented team, Tom has not only been a pleasure to work alongside but has also become a friend. I receive zero compensation from the shareprophets and operate completely independent, If the article has offended Tom then I'm sorry. However I believe in the right to express ones opinion under democracy and free speech.