Monday, 25 February 2013

Its time to actually think about it

Today I feel compelled to put out this brief message

As we the retail Investors navigate the stock markets daily,weekly,monthly many fellow P.I's find some resolve by sharing research from a fundamental perspective or commenting on a variable depth of technical and historical data so what I'm about to say may seem alarming/far out.

Today a announcement was made by Sefton Resources:

Legal Action

RNS Number : 5809Y
Sefton Resources Inc
25 February 2013
25 February 2013
Sefton Resources, Inc.
("Sefton" or the "Company")
Legal action
Sefton Resources (AIM: SER), the independent oil and gas exploitation and production company with interests in California and Kansas announces that legal action has been initiated against Tom Winnifrith and Daniel Levi.
· Legal proceedings have been issued against Tom Winnifrith and Daniel Levi (Broker Man Daniel) for libel in the Queen's Bench Division of the High Court of Justice.
· Complaints have been made against Tom Winnifrith and Daniel Levi to the Financial Services Authority (FSA) regarding apparent breaches of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
· US counsel has been engaged to review comparable actions with US courts and regulatory authorities.
Jim Ellerton, Chairman of the Board said:
"Sefton is accelerating the development of its oil and gas operations both in California and Kansas to create shareholder value. Sefton is not against free speech and people expressing their opinions in the press or on the internet; however, when boundaries of common decency are breached the Company will vigorously pursue anyone and the vehicles they utilize, that seek to illegally damage Sefton."
For further information please visit or contact:
I'm now focusing on the stock market in general with a focus on small cap Oil & Gas as a sector.
How much do we really know? How much of our reasoned opinion and moderate research actually scratches the surface of where our money is invested, Time and time again we see the markets maker rally the share price as numerous exploration and so called production companies come to market from a pre arranged position (i.e equity line) and dump the diluted stock onto the enthusiastic retail investors usually supported by some feeble Rns of bonza rewards in Oil & Gas fields far from home....
The reality is many of these acquisitions are made cheaply and from 2nd and 3rd rate Industry sources with a vast majority presenting very little value for money.
There a sponge for cash and this cash is provided by YOU the private Investor, The guy that sits in the chair speculating is doing so with our money, our money that many invest with the hope to a reward similar to Gkp,Rkh etc.
We always look past the companies that have slowly eroded in front of our very eyes or drop through the black hole and into the abyss never to mentioned again.
The primary focus being the success cases!!!
Which leads me onto the statement from Sefton Resource today...
Are they a down on there luck E&P company doing there best to deliver shareholder value or are they another company not reimbursing any value what so ever to its shareholders?
This is a question you need to ask yourself???
I myself although from a technical point of view see value in San Leon, I don't agree with the CEO paying himself nearly £2m in just over 2yrs.But If the Sp goes up and they prove up what they say and you have a 7.5p entry (Which looks good) then you sing the praise of the Ceo however if your in at 24p then the quacking starts '' Wow that's you problem mate '' or '' You bought at the wrong price '' When reality is the Investors who bought at that level bought into a theory that San Leon would draw down heavily for around £60m and use this to deliver or fast track A,B and C.
The outcome....... ? Well we know as the 7.5p suggests '' Things didn't go to plan and those folk are now at 30% of there investment ''
Fellow investors can blame one another but the reality is that the company did not do as they said....
Again this is the high risk sector we invest and have to accept this BUT the bitter pill to swallow is the huge salaries these people receive for not doing what they say!!!
I have been a big advocate in giving the company chance to do there job, San Leon still have time to reward its shareholders....
Have Ser?
Lets now look at the freedom of speech and the freedom of information
Earlier this week a man stood up in the centre of London and sang a song about a guy who murders his girlfriend in a jealous rage. The lyrics seemed to blame it mainly on the woman. Watching the singer from a nearby spectator stand were the prime minister, the Archbishop of Canterbury and much of the royal family. They rocked or even sang along with the refrain, "Why, why, why, Delilah?" Some of them also waved little Union Jack flags, to endorse this enjoyable little ballad of murder ("I felt the knife in my hand and she laughed no more"). One question this raises is: why did the police not immediately arrest them all – princes, prime minister and archbishop – under section 5 of the Public Order Act?
Don't be absurd, you say. But would it be any more absurd than a student being arrested under section 5 for saying to a mounted policeman: "Excuse me, do you realise your horse is gay?", or the 19-year-old Kyle Little, charged and convicted – though then cleared on appeal – for delivering what was described as a "daft little growl" and a woof at two labradors?

As quoted in the Guardian in June 2012

We can see clear examples of how this is being manipulated to suit the bigger boy picking on the smaller one!

Again question the alleged comments made by the authors  towards a small cap oil company like sefton from the accused?

Then ask how this could correlate to the absurd cases the guardian covered.

''Okay now lets look at your rights to information in the public sector''

If we can by rights of law access this information in the public sector why can't we in the private? After all its our money they have and inevitably its all our risk that is associated with the success or failings of a company.

The Freedom of Information Act gives you the right to ask any public sector organisation for all the recorded information they have on any subject.
Anyone can make a request for information – there are no restrictions on your age, nationality or where you live.

If your request is turned down
Some sensitive information might not be available to members of the public. If this is the case, the organisation must tell you why they have withheld some or all of the information you requested.

Transparency is not such a difficult request is it?
The private sector/Aim listed companies should start to wake up to the rights of the people carrying the financial can... '' After all its not like there making great headway to warrant the break ''

Yes we know these resolutions are past year in year out at the AGM or EGM but usually these formalities are rarely attended by numbers big enough or significant enough to make a difference....

The in house team in many companies reward themselves, If there not trying to defer bonuses in a ploy to hide the value or worse they pay these people who failed us!

Failure is now something that is rewarded regularly weather it be in our social structure, Working culture or within the once 'Great British' infrastructure.

We know that we have a better transparency now with laws helping us mere mortals access sometimes much needed information under the freedom of information act and we also have identified how we need a greater freedom of speech or at least a playing field as mention in the above article. Which brings me again to the alleged claims that have been made by two individuals at the forefront of the retail world and there now soon to be public battle with sefton resources.

I have one question for the 3 parties involved

Daniel Levi
Tom Winnifrith
Sefton Resource (Jim Ellerton)

'' When this is over and the innocence of the investors has been tarnished yet again will you be able to hold up your head and say I did what was morally right and the best for the shareholders of the company ''

(I'd like to add a few sentiments that are not mine or endorsed,written or supported by me, These are opinions from the public forums that the P.i share there thoughts)

The views from Buller a reasoned,respected and often the defender of his investment. I spoke at length with Buller and always liked the guy which is why I use his post as sentiment but feel that there is plenty of posts highlighting the extreme disappointment in SER Board of directors and perhaps a few that are unhappy with BMD and TW.


''In my view the board has lied to us. The main example that is easy to prove is the drilling of the 4 wells which were back in November/December 2011. Several time they refer to drilling on 4 wells have commenced or will be completed in a few weeks time. At the time of writing they knew that they did not have permission to drill the 4th well and by not stating that it is an open faced lie and and I don't care who takes me to court on that one.

I would also claim that the dates given on the Ali report being published were lying against better knowledge. There must be a certain understanding when you run a publicly listed company that the people who run it and publish
information have just a grain of understanding of what they are dealing with. In announcing several time that Ali report is due within weeks they must and should have known better. They will be asked t o provide in court evidence that Ali had told them that the report was reay in weeks which obviously is impossible as we now know what complexities and research would be involved in finalising the report. It will be very interesting to get Ali on the stand and he could get the board into severe difficulties.

The final one I would mention was the announcement of the immediate appointment of the new CFO on April 12th last year. Of course it turned out that this never happened. They had not competed and never did complete negotiations and a contract with this guy and he never tool the job.How could they announce that he had taken the job in that RNS
(again these are not my views but those of shareholders and investors in SER)
My view for the record is this:
More money wasted
More time wasted
Its not adding value (May provide another excuse)
Its not helping
All the best Doc
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Sunday, 24 February 2013

Weekend Chatter Vol. II

Fridays News AAA Downgrade, Plus Stock talk

As I look at the news from around the globe and try and translate this into sentiment with much speculation around the downgrade by Moody's being expected and even priced in to some degree (wow,I'm not sure about that) Its pretty obvious what effect this will have on key sectors.

With Gold pulling back and Platinum sinking to a real low point its worth remembering when the shit hit the fan where the money goes, Solid precious metals... Perhaps worth considering which companies layout looks safe to house your money.

Just as the stock markets start to rally (Beyond expectation) and it looks safe to get back in the water Moody's downgrade the AAA rating which may echo in Ozzy Osbourne's phrase '' We offer a safe haven '' As the axe swung across Europe prior to the UK joining the downgrade club.

Back to Global news:

Western Australia face cyclone threat
China to have government shake up
BHP say cost cutting demands needed
Pound drops to lowest point since 2010
Italian Notes weaken amid claims of government shake up (Hung)
Spending cuts to threaten state recovery
Pentagon slow contractor payments
Horse meat and Beef scandal

With all the positives we can only expect the markets to use this as its tool to play the FTSE amongst others into a bear trap! The real question is will we see a fake or a real decline and back into the dark trend of the bearish sub 5600pt lows.

Hardly you say? Well I agree if you do say that as it seems that Europe has moved on somewhat and although there are many highs and lows associated to the Euro it would appear that Germany's business is increasing and improving ahead of schedule. Is the UK downgrade simply falling in line with our invisible tether to Europe!!! The one we all want when trading with our buddies across the water or the route of all evil when there in the poop...
Funny old relationship we hold but one which  seemingly correlates regardless how visible it may or may not appear.

The game is on as the Monday open will be a serious tug of war as positions are closing/opening and the reality of the is it/isn't it or was it/wasn't it is played out.

The fact that the Aim and weaker markets have not really correlated with the highs in the FTSE or those of late 2010 and early 2011 I'd say that there maybe some concerns to have but nothing immediate. If your invested in companies with a decent cash position and revenue stream then I'd try and relax a little. If your invested in a company which relies on coming to market then you may find a bigger discount coming should the real trend reversal start to play out.

In truth there are worse things facing others around the world but to the greedy trader /investors i expect the opening bell on Monday will cause a flutter or two in anticipation.

As I cover Sareum Holdings Via late last week in comparator to JKX Oils. The safe option to the speculative one may be magnified in the coming months.

Initial thoughts are that indirect pain may be tolerable but how that develops over Summer (when it feels more direct) is another question.

My Attention Has Been Drawn To:

As Vince Cable tells Andrew Marr "In terms of the real economy, there is no reason why the downgrade should have any impact...

I now draw your attention to a more sordid,sinister and controversial piece form Money Week!

The End of Britain
WARNING: What you're about to see is controversial, and may be alarming to some audiences. Viewer discretion is advised.
This is a presentation that ties in with alot of thoughts I have shared on the stock market via twitter,FB and My Blog page.

£10 trillion in public funds - MoneyWeek calculations based on historical welfare spend
UK Total Debt as a percentage of GDP - Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth, McKinsey Global Institute, 2 January 2012
500,000 pensioners in 1909 – BBC article: The state pension turns 100, 31 July 2008 Average life expectancy - World Bank data, 31 October 2012
An estimated £5 trillion government debt – IEA article: True level of UK government debt exceeds £5 trillion, 12 November 2012
£120 billion net borrowing – Office for National Statistics: Public Sector Finances August 2012, 21 September 2012
MP Douglas Carswell quote – The End of Politics and The Birth of iDemocracy
James Callaghan quote – British Political Speech, Blackpool 1976, 28 September 1976
America, Japanese and Weimar Republic total debt – Global Financial Data, Bridgewater's An In-Depth Look at Deleveragings report, February 2012
Salaries and pensions slashed up to 40% - The Guardian: Greece is ripe for radical change, 8 November 2012
Euro zone discussed capital controls – Reuters, 12 June 2012
For the calculations of UK debt, and more information about the charts, click here

(There is a clever request for subscription to Money Week which I'm not endorsing I'm simply suggesting you look and listen with a hope that we all learn, Open minds and the third eye)

Closing thoughts

All cannot be well as the cancer of national debt is escalating out of control!!! Now the increase over the next 5 yrs is set to exceed that of the last 100yrs. Its truly bonkers to think that this can go on forever.

Time to wake up to the markets and risk which is involved when you make the uneducated decision to enter the markets armed with simple logic and self confidence!!! (Its not enough)

I like to think I'm a realist and because of this I'm open enough to review all the thoughts,data and presented arguments and translate this to the layman.

If you hold a positive position or one which is likely to need funding soon, De-risk and hold cash or safer options. At least until we receive the vacuum that may or may not come over the coming weeks. Also remember the game play that comes via the markets! A unrealistic high before a huge implosion........ Are we at this point now? Is the fall about to commence? Are you clued up on this ruthless and dangerous arena?

All the best Doc

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Friday, 22 February 2013

Sareum Holdings


Sareum's small molecule drug discovery expertise is building value by developing drug candidates, focused on cancer and auto-immune disease, for licencing to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.

Sareum Holdings (LSE:SAR) Speculative BUY

Marketcap Approx: £20m
Shares In Issue: 1,492.18m

As we are all aware the Bio sector is about as high octane as it gets, As with the tech sector when these companies get it right they get it very right and when its wrong it can go very wrong.

Sareum Holdings spiked in 2011 with rumours being banded about that they have a cure for cancer causing a 18 fold rise over 3-4 trading sessions to excess of 4.5p, The company announced: 


Feb 7th 2011

A recent study for Sareum’s Aurora+FLT3 Kinase programme showed that the leukaemia regressed to such an extent that no detectable cancer could be found in any of the cases treated (ten in total)


March 4th 2011

A recent colon cancer pre-clinical model study carried out by The ICR demonstrates that the combination of a collaboration Chk1 inhibitor, dosed via the oral route, in combination with a chemotherapeutic, gemcitabine, demonstrates a greater than two-fold reduction in cancer growth rate compared to treatment with the same dose of gemcitabine without the Chk1 inhibitor.

Since then the company came back down to earth setteling in a trading range at 1.2p-2p throughout 2011 then eroding  from March 2012 through August 2012 to 0.62p.

By the end of the first week in August the shareprice movement reminded the market how lively Sar could be on the 7th August leaping like a salmon from 0.64p to a 2p high with the company announcing advanced stage in negotiations.

August 7th 2012

''The Company can confirm that advanced stages of negotiations are taking place with a potential licencing partner which may or may not lead to a licencing agreement regarding one of the Company’s research programmes.''
By late November the company were denying claims it was in discussions with Astra Zeneca however confirming they believed a deal would be done by the end of the calender year something Dr Mitchell had conveyed throughout 2012 in both press/media releases on multiple fronts.

Fast forward a few months and Sareum had agreed a seda line which offers a financial support whilst continuing in there negotiations, To date Sareum has not announced a deal Nor has it announced  failing to secure a deal. The facts of the matter are as stated above SAR have multiple compounds and scientific data indicating both Aurora+flt3 and Chk1 are showing ambitious progress.

With a rather normal stance so far I now want to concentrate on Tyk2 and the SKIL® Platform Not only are SAR armed with Aurora+flt3 and Chk1 they have progressed other pipelines and some quite significantly with there own inhouse platform to interpret and understand the development which is compiling a noticeable portfolio.   

I'm not a scientist but then you don't have to be to analyse the company briefly and identify that at 1.2p the company is starting to present speculative value.
From a technical view the stock has a historical support at 1.2p level and is showing oversold with signs of exhaustion and the bears retreating (For now!!!), The company is not in a downward trend nor has it been eroding therefore I suspect there will be some buoyancy emerging after the company drops 40% from the 2.18p high.

When Sareum announced the Seda facility Sept 2012 it opens 2 school of thought
1.) The company are likely to be in negotiations longer than suggested
2.) The company are giving themselves the leverage to negotiate the best deal for its shareholders

18th Feb 2013

Sareum’s CEO, Dr. Tim Mitchell, commented:
Our ongoing progress in our research programmes is very encouraging and we continue to discuss the commercialisation of these programmes with a number of interested parties. We are also now in a strong position to develop our programmes to later stages, should we so choose, which should mean a greater share of the end rewards and we will continue to consider this aspect alongside our various discussions with potential partners.

Hybridan have Sareum at 3.18p with only minimal consideration to the Skil® Platform

Before we head em' up and move em' out lets take a layman look at Sareum holdings and the current market conditions:
Sar are simply high risk high rewards stock that has a huge engulfing positive in there continuing progress of its compounds/Pipelines with speculative upside value since the recent pullback. It is my opinion that Sareum's Tim Mitchell works at his own pace and on his terms, However the company appears on the brink of a ambigious program.

The market is fraught with fear as ironically the Ftse achieves unbelievable highs yet the Bio sector  has yet to release the '' This is our year performance '' I would suggest we remain grounded whilst navigating our way into profitable positions.

All the best Doc

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Wednesday, 20 February 2013

Power To The People

A story of desperation and hope

(that can effect your neighbours, loved ones or foe)

After what has been a shocking few years seeing the great European funding fritted away in Valencia (One of many financial experiments from the 'Caca de la vaca' of Spanish Banks) or building theatres with not enough people feasibly viable to house such a privilege I stumble over  Laurence a Northern Boy like myself with a bucket load of belief and a truly inspirational vision in challenging the banking system and the reforms that are yet to be made.

We know the banks are wrong as they pay out to the tune of millions in PPI claims many which were fraudulently given under the radar of the patron or under the guise of some financial security.

The one place you are supposed to feel safe and with the one commodity we are educated to require as much as clean air and water.

Money/Cash/Greenbacks or Readies...

We are told through our social interactions and structure or educational standards the value and need for this commodity. No longer Coffee,Cattle,Beans or Bread, Nor the Egg or Chickens leg. But the tether of the corporate world.

Is this strange coming from me? It shouldn't be it helps highlight why I'm dogged in sharing my reasoned opinions and thoughts of these blindfolded retail investors running and skipping into a ambush.

The People vs The Banks

Please share this video:

'' The only time you truly lose your home is when you GIVE UP.''



To European leaders: (2011 over 500,000 signed this)

As citizens concerned about the economic crisis and austerity measures, we urge you to fundamentally change the proposed Greek rescue package. The bailout deal must be rewritten to ensure that public money serves the public interest and doesn't reward the banks and speculators which have helped cause the crisis.


An email I found which I sent last year:

wake up to the stock market mate! Wake up to the mechanics behind it and for gods sake wake up to the world we live in....
' This sounds like a pretencions statement but lets look at a few facts '
The GDP of the United states is loosely based around 17% of the health care ( $2.5 Trillion) to its residents/people.
We as a global community look for increase and stronger Gross domestic product (GDP) so for the GDP in the 17% of the contributing factor to rise the fucking people have to be sick and the % contribution higher....
Excellent more sickness and illness... (dying) so in theory the sicker the people are the stronger the economy! ' Really '
Okay the place we all want to be (well off)
Upper class
You get there and place £1,000,000 into a Cd @ 4%
= £40,000 gain

Lower class
Take loans pay interest so the lower class pay the upper class........ The social classicism structure is there, The weak reward the strong. The poor pay the rich OR ' Money goes to money '
The GDP does not reflect the quality of people lives it is a reflection of the industrial inefficiency's and social degradation.
The Stock market is not a honest and decent place therefore the people that work within it can't possibly be.........
The morale's of where and what the markets represent are not those of the morals installed into us as young people.....
Why? We need to be deceived later in life....
(Yes, Yes another load of ****)
The ECONOMY: The word we associate with economizing.... a term used with preservation, Efficiency to avoid waste!
Yet the system and GDP relies on CONSUMPTION and WASTE so the market is opposite to its very meaning.
OIL and Minerals take Millions to billions of years to develop yet the economic system and markets encourage and are built on actively promoting the acceleration of consumption is INSANE.
Efficiency: Think about the word ' Absence of waste '
Yet we are working against all we believe we are actually doing, The Markets and the GDP rely on the contrary as that is how the increase figures are developed.
We ship minerals halfway around the world (wasteful) as its cheaper yet we set the prices!!! Crazy! its all about the more we USE and Waste the stronger we become although of course we NEVER admit to this as we are taught to be frugal and recycle....
The whole system stinks, Its corrupt, Its bent and its dishonest so if you believe that *.* from **** is acting for you then your as crazy as the next foolish P.I
*.* is tethered to the corporate demands of twisting the screw so the people with the most get more and the people with the least get less.....
If the balance is not with them then they just shake you upside down until the coppers fall out of your pockets.....
NOW ofcourse there will always be a few that get through and take the golden pot at the end of the rainbow but statistics say you have a 99.3% chance of being that person.
This is not about **** for me its about understanding the stages companies are at and making the money in between.... This can take minutes hours days weeks months or years.
Its not a case of a daytrading scumbag or a loyal hardy investor! its about the journey of the company and its passage of time.

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Sunday, 17 February 2013

Weekend Chatter

Outlook for next week

Ok having reviewed Jkx oils last week with a BUY target we look at a short position. I thought about the recently tipped short on Ocado and although I agree with Zak and Tom I see the short presenting a 114p initially.

After a browse through the books and a weekend at one with nature I caught up with every ones friend the K.O.S (King of Swing) Chiffa. He does not disagree with the Ocado short but dragged my attention to IG Group Holdings with his view on where the shorts lie. I'm not here to argue with God so I also concur IG does look at the top of its game and when this happens the price usually declines.

IG Group Holdings: Short or Sell that position
(494p on a flat/pos open ftse and 488p falling open ftse)

We also look at the stocks that could go either way, These are stocks to watch and wait for confirmation of there trajectory

Adv Power
Europa Oil and Gas
Forte Energy
Sound Oil
US Oil&Gas

These companies have fundamental news and technical indicators to show that further ups or downs are pending a safer player may wait for a more suitable stance, After all there's a big bad world out there.

The Mills Moving

Ok the rumour mill is turning once again on our favourite Irish led Gxg listed US Oil&Gas (Usop), After what was a terrible end to 2012 with the suspending of the stock and the listing on the clearly difficult to circumnavigate platform of Gxg markets Usop has risen like a salmon and fell like a stone on what can only be described as idiosyncratic happenings.

I posted on twitter today a thought that is very true in this world and that's to never believe all of what we read and hear. I personally felt that Usop seemed crazily over valued on what was really nothing more than bloody good potential in a wildcat well and drilling campaign and at 650p it was always going to get the attention of the bears. The very reason this stock rallied to that level was based on a very bullish Unregulated pump campaign in words and quotes on a awesome collective front.

So between the super negatives of the bears and the sensational positives of the bulls its time to take a layman's glance at whats happening today.

It is my belief that Wildcat drilling holds a general c.o.s conversion rate of around 17% I'm also of the belief that the currently listed market is unsustainable in coping with any news from Usop weather good or whats deemed bad as it seems to have a unique effect on the SP which is not good for any of the smaller retail players involved. The roller coaster is damaging and unfair. Extreme Highs and lows are killing confidence.

Lets look at that.The company is rumoured to be flowing (via testing) for a little while now which can only mean Booom! ' In Brian we trust '... Not so quick guys, The rumour could in fact be very true and the fact that hydrocarbons are there would mean  rightly the wildcat has delivered on flow an'all. It is likely that the company will flow test for 2-4 wks and once they have analysed there data there will be a follow up Rns after the one which will come from this activity.

I hear people say ' they had 6months to analyse the data ' Wrong! The Oil and Gas game does not work like that, Folks can't just flow test without a receptacle/Tank for this to flow into, Weather its a Lift tank or a road barrel of sorts they may have cleaned the well up from obstacles and down hole waste (Normal practise) However that does not mean they have acute flow data, Also the flow test data they do glean  from ft-results may or may not be that of the final flow results.

Now Over to the upside, If Usop can deliver then this will commence in multiple releases of data. Not all at once, So when the stampede takes place should the F.T results come in over the next few weeks, Try and remain grounded. If the market can't cope what will happen? If the Share price reacts in one more peculiar way what will happen? I would hope that the company can find a relevant listing to what may or may not be a significant find of Oil.
Clearly US Oil&Gas have had a catalogue of questions hanging over there governance and this really needs to be transparent and far more open to the shareholder which my reignite not only current shareholder confidence but also future investors.
The CEO may want to consider the negative impact that unregulated and unreliable pumping or de-ramping of this stock may have, I do not recall anyone stating they were looking into the unprecedented level of ramping and pumping of the company for nearly 2 years!!! Strange how they only focus on the de-rampers. Reality is Usop should look to find a equilibrium and temper all none sense related drivel and become more pragmatic in conveying the story as they see it and in manner which correlates with market regulation.
(Again I only reiterate what Plus and Gxg have stated and nothing more)
US Oil and Gas: A company that has the potential to ignite the micro market of gxg into overload or to empty the pockets quicker than Dick Turpin.

Remember guys I'm about as popular as salman rusdie after the release of satanic versus but at 600p there was only a small number of people who could see a contrary offering to the twoddle on offer in 2H 2012.

In my opinion anyone buying stock sub £1 in Usop has a darn good chance of making a pretty penny if the Chinese whispers of FT of EB1 are in actual fact and after what seems a life time of soul searching I'm actually starting to feel alot warmer towards the company.

What will happen with the high level of water cut from EB1? Sell it to the Arabs I hear!!! Sadly there are many intellectually presented calculations that are laid down and sworn in as FACT! conservative speculative facts on value, The truth is Usop could reward on one tenth of there recovery.

''Layman's, Try and focus on what you understand and not on what the authors of these posts proclaim to''

Is it a investment to me? Probably not as the GXG markets a tough arena and one which can make sleeping at night difficult. However there is clearly money to be made from Usop should you have the correct position and ignore the global chanting of (strap your self in were taking off) OR (This is a dog,duster,dead)

I hope to have a more reasoned opinion of the company in the coming weeks and months with a view to Buy,Sell or Hold

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Disclaimer: The above is a reasoned opinion derived from years rodeoing the markets and deciphering the bullshit that group mentality creates


Friday, 15 February 2013

JKX Oil & Gas


Buy: 62.5p Target 80p

JKX Oils is a FTSE 250 listed Production and Exploration company's principle assets in Ukraine, Russia and Central Europe with there portfolio now extends to 14 assets with activities spanning the full-cycle E&P value chain from exploration, appraisal and development through to production.

The company has a share price of 62.5p with a marketcap around £107m we have to look closely at the story here and the reason for its recent decline. JKX oil & gas seem to have been struggling to tread water between 69p-78p for a number of weeks.
After technical setbacks in Russia and failure to meet forecast and expectation with production contacting 11.8% overall from Oct 2011 - Oct 2012 the company slipped from 180p in the early part of February 2012 down to 55p low February 2013.

The value here is broadly based around technicals and fundamental perspective's via the usual layman format I convey. '' As I flick through the Maverick Journal of 84' we look at the assets JKX hold ''

Shares in issue 171.67mill
Net Tangible Asset Value 181.1p
Net Asset Value 189.92p
Price Earnings around 2.8
Price to Tangible Book 0.37 (One of, if not, the lowest on FTSE)
Bloomberg Median Estimate Target Price 137.50p (Upside +110%)

Cash at last accounts release £6.5m but with recent fund raising (£25m via bonds priced @ 87.425p),
Revenues from last full year £150m with profit before tax circa £50m
Fore casted £135mil revenue to end 2012 with Pre Tax profit £38.7m
At interim stage Revenues £65m with pre tax loss £400k

The slack start to 2013 should see a taut move in there developments with the company announcing successful placing of convertible bonds at 87p raising $40m.

Last director Buy: Cynthia Dublin 40,000 at 80p Oct.2012

We also have the company announcing Elizavetovskoye reserve upgrade,Rudenkovskoye Multi-Stage Frac Update where CEO Paul Davis says '' This is one of the most important projects in the JKX portfolio and has the potential to kick-off the full-scale development of our largest licence in Ukraine''. Also the update of the upgrade equipment in transit to PPC demonstrates further potential increase in product streams from Novo-Nikolaevskoye plant.

For the more rough backed riders of the stock market I'll put it this way,The company has assets valued much higher than the current SP coupled with a decent cash position and a recovering production and revenue stream which is becoming buoyant once again. For a TA point the company have retracted to 55p and were well oversold, Currently we have a company caught in a negative vacuum based around activities that are being remedied and for this reason i suggest a position at the current level will reward the investors is as stated.

Chief Executive, Dr Paul Davies, called operating results for the first half of the year 'solid' with strong gas and LPG realisations in Ukraine offsetting the shortfall in Russian production and associated revenues. "We anticipate the modest decline in production levels in Ukraine through year-end being more than offset by a rising contribution to group production from Russia,"

I see some resistance at low 70's with a tidy leg back up to the relative price of 80p consoling shareholders and reigniting investor confidence.

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Tuesday, 12 February 2013

Paternoster Resource

Paternoster Resource is a company that caught my attention back in early 2012, With fantasy storeys of £16m manganese plants in South Africa or unfounded claims of RTO, Buyouts big Jv's and basic ramping across multiple bulletin board outlets I started to look at the company and value what they had. The reality at the time was the company were just shy of £500,000 cash and with a single actively moving investment in a company shroud in mystery and myth ~ Leeds resource. £400,000 approx Invested.
The other position was held in BRDY a shell or blanket company.

Pretty sure enough the weird and wonderful world of what was then viridas and the dizzy highs of nonsense posted by no other than our old friends Drosso2, Wassatt and HandiGhandy (The latter who seems to have like a Phoenix to the flame re-appeared) Imploded on lies and slipped away onto Angm (Who are now suspended or Tstr who have far to many shares in issue to be taken serious)

The company as i pointed out in Feb 2012 and always was earmarked as a investment company which is exactly what it is in its current format, Any negative thoughts that a acute fundamentalist may have were quashed when Nick Lee sold out the position in Leeds resource for £2.8million after the initial £400k capital invested leaving 166m warrants at 0.15p with no risk associated and a very burly balance.

The fact that Nick Lee has come from financial workings and not sat on a digger in a open cast mine or sifting for gold nuggets showed it didn't take rocket science to piece together what was about to come. With the newly converted profits Viridas changed name to Paternoster Resource to reflect the new company and management team in place namingly Mr Lee, the company were making steps forward. The disappointing thing lost by the retail world was the pumping of the stock by uneducated or worse unscrupulous people sending out more red herrings and white elephants than a fictional murder mystery novel.

Nick continued to prove his metal by taking positions in other resource stocks in the sector where to date the company has a healthy investment portfolio value which is starting to join together the hard work done behind the scenes during the 2H 2012. There is no denying that the Asta Investment to date has not been great yet we are hearing all the time that all is not lost with plenty of work being done to salvage that position, Not to be overlooked is the QFi investment taken from 7p at the placing price which is today approx 100% up or the Ipso (PLR) position taken at 0.25p now 1p which seemingly are mirroring the early 2012 coup in Ldp.

The direct correlation between the investments that have been taken and the value reciprocated is easy to see and as the company release data on there end of year accounts with investment disclosure from Bison Energy, Andiamo or Shumba coal its my opinion that Paternoster are simmering on the cusp of greater things.

I'm not focusing on the value in this review as it has been done before here:

I will be updating the layman value once further disclosure comes but the fundamentals are PRS have a strong cash position to support a rewarding and diverse portfolio. But please don't take my word for it! Assign half an hour to do the sums.

There will be no funding drive here, I don't anticipate anything other than normal market fluctuations. The Technical view is the stock is in a bullish trend trading above the 200Dsma. Always take some off the table and spend more than just the time to mutter or think the words '' I'm aware of the risk '' As very often people love to take risk in stocks when its going there way but generally cannot take the risk when it works against them as they sit at the terminal growing in frustration at a bad trade or investment.

Currently the stock is trading at a 40% discount which is similar to that of my last review via stockopedia after a 35-40% rise but this is due to further investment and portfolio value increasing. The information is in the public domain. For anyone sharing concerns over the recent Zoltav Resource article Tom Winnifrith published which I agree with him on when he says there overvalued based on association and asset valuation.

I disagree to 44m or 7% of the company having any drastic effect should they come to market, As days in Mid January 100m shares exchanged hands over a few sessions. So for me the risk of what may happen if Zoltav do possibly unload stock is of no real concern. However the issue of Zoltav highlights the value of Paternoster when you offset the companies against one another something I did highlight to Tom a few months back was Paternosters Market cap was about to grow from £1.4m.

Investment companies like this often trade at a heavy discount but looking at the peer group non are revenue or profit making like Paternoster and most are over valued or shouldering heavy loss like TXO or LEG.

Alot more to come from Paternoster Resource and not so darn long winded. Enjoy the Journey

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Thursday, 7 February 2013


After a brief introduction to Bahamas Petroleum (LN:BPC) and there interest in exploration and production we address a few basic facts on this blog to consider whilst the much anticipated referendum and local and central authority discuss the ever evolving environment there islands sit.

The Bahamians along with the global community are more than aware of the need to ramp up all aspects of potential from the Caribbean paradise in a similar way Europe should become more pragmatic in prevention apposed to alienation.Or on a lighter note Bernard Mathews needs to produce decent drummers without infesting the children of the UK with bird flu. The Bahamians don't want oil flowing to surface like the opening clip from the hillbilly's.

Ok its all very well for the Invested/Investor who simmer with frustrations on the referendums outcome to demand a answer now or question the time that has been taken to date but the reality as with many highly intricate or some may say byzantine compositions of data and news creeping back to the Uk's shores dressed up in all sorts of variety the truth is the markets will start to secrete sentiment when the time comes.  

Currently the stock has in all been bumbling along at 4-4.5p with a recent upturn to 6 pence as the stock expands and contracts on very little. What is self evident is traders are playing the swings growing there positions whilst the discussions take place, and in all honesty will be well placed and protected to deal with both eventuality's. 

The first major issue and realisation that needs to be pondered (if you have not already worked this out) Is big players and Institutions don't take a one way trajectory on a stock (No matter how great it looks) and very few look for a Brewster's millions end game. Many work hard to grow there position whilst protecting the headway there making. The Market maker has no interest in the share price other than the margins they cream off the stock in each trade (Business as usual) which leaves the measly private Investor poorly informed or schooled on the game there about to play which is similar to the impalement arts as the magician throws knives blindfolded. 

Over the coming months a proportion of this site will be dedicated to Bpc's developments and the sharing of layman's reasoning and actions of what is happening both fundamentally and technically. We don't promise to sing word for word but we do endeavour to give a real perspective,viewpoint and theory of fundamental changes and most of all Technical changes. 

Sitting on a 4.5p entry watching it rise and fall and not having a clue on what/which or when the information in the public domain is going to massage you or maim you is just not good enough, We look to create a reasoned arena regardless of stance or preference. Like it or loath it there is a desire for such a playground. 

There will be alot more detailed and opinionated views coming down the pipe as the feeling around BPC come to light.
Always take some off the table, Always try and safeguard your capital and actually consider the meaning of risk which is heavily associated in a O&G E&P investment and/or trade.

*Update 11.03.13

So we wake up this morning to news that the Bahamian Government have made some progress in cutting the E&P sector some slack with '' Government of The Bahamas to permit exploration drilling ahead of any referendum process providing clarity on the timing and process of exploration.''

The stock has been well hammered down on speculation that local and national approvels would never come and whilst today we have the first clear and acute sign in 2013 that exploration appraisel drilling will go ahead we have to look at the stumbling blocks of financing such a bold data buliding platform.

As we reported here early Feburary 2013 the primary focus is on the layman shareholder outlining the pro's and con's in each step forwards/backwards and sideways helping to navigate the wooping,hollering and trolling on this stock.

Its my opinion that this news is a great move forward this year, It wasn't expected any more than unexpected however we have some firm clarity via the Rns today. The near term questions are.

When can we see this taking place?
Whats the finacial position of BPC?
Is there any undercurrent objection or obligation towards/from Bpc?

We shall be joing BPC again over the coming days.
After a decent rise we always see a pullback usually whilst the markets get there chips, Also if there is a funding drive in play then the II won't be paying top top bunts... But on a positive note we can then expect some decent action and value ecruing to all those who bought around the 4.5p mark as recommended.

Update 19-04-13

Bahamas Petroleum Co. (BPC), the only explorer searching for oil off the Atlantic archipelago, expects to find crude even after efforts off nearby Cuba failed.
A seismic study by Bahamas Petroleum, or BPC, showed that the Great Bahama Bank may have oil at shallower water depths, making it easier to drill, and a layer of salt keeping the crude in place, Chief Executive Officer Simon Potter said in London.
BPC is looking for a partner to raise at least $100 million to drill the country’s first exploration well in about 27 years. It holds five licenses covering more than 4 billion barrels of potential oil resources and is seeking three more with Statoil ASA. (STL) The nation in March allowed exploration to go ahead on the condition a referendum be called before the first oil is pumped.
“Let’s go and bake the cake, let’s establish commercial reserves,” Potter said in an interview. Should a discovery be made, “there’ll be a much more positive issue to be managing.”

Update 11.06.13

Zak mir gives a technical indicator here:

The company has traded through the window for sometime and on what appears a negative to BPC we have positives in the rebound off support with a potential game on signal due in the coming weeks.

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Look to unlock the value of the Bahamas future Oil and Gas potential over the coming years with a acute focus on translating local needs and concerns with the heavy weight industry that may well transform the Islands wealth and prosperity.
BPC and the E&p Oil and Gas industry are always cautious when approaching the subject or permission/Consent to proceed in proving hydrocarbons up which is why the indigenous people of the Islands and the forthcoming Oil and Gas industry (Which BPC are apart) Have to strike the right chord with Bahamians like a good old junkanoo.

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