Saturday, 3 January 2015

DocsLaymanChatter XXXII

So we are a day into the New Year, A pretty drab day that consisted of low volume, disheveled interest and an all round holiday feeling so whats for 2015?

First and foremost understand the game, before you play it blind like a Las Vegas blackjack tourist who sits at the table to throw a few hundred bucks into the hands of the house, the croupier may make you feel good about what you're doing but the voice in your head afterwards that says you just took part in a game which only outcome was negative expectancy and loss... #KnowTheGame

Life as a private investor can be extremely rewarding but often is hugely damaging, financially, mentally and physically, I tweeted today '' why would you fear a black or white gang banging street kid taking your prize possessions yet roll up investing into Aim daily '' - There is a simple message here.

We make decisions and choices each and every moment of every minute,hour,day,week and month of our life, If people believe success is born from careful consideration or reckless chance taking whilst testing strategies in order to break the code of AIM then sadly your chance of becoming a statistic is 90-95%. Why? because the stock market game is designed to win, the small cap sectors evolve with the players to always stay a step or two ahead of them, it becomes more aggressive, it grows much stronger and it nearly always takes what it needs to survive... '' It consumes you, it absorbs all that it needs to continue '' 

Of course I'm that odd, angry conspiracy crackpot but regardless of personal thought you can go and find the hard evidence of the devinci calls which have been served up continually for your use giving insight into the markets of how the game is being played, the recipe for success comes from complete commitment..... 

Over to the markets:

Sefton Resources: Are now likely to suspend any minute pending the complete breakdown and collapse of Sefton/Hawker dealings with the Bank of the West, these guys have pushed their luck much too far, not only on chicken feed propositions but also questionable back door dealings. Old habits die hard and sadly P.I's could be at a total loss here soon. Everything that is wrong with aim can be found in this companies closet let me tell you...

ARMS: I made a twitter call which pretty much summed up by the minute how things would play out, knowledge, experience and understanding the mechanics makes this possible! you will not get this by following the thought process everyone else has or infact structuring your decision making the same way as those inherent losers.

Union Jack Oil: UJO has an interesting future, with (discovery) wells due to commence flow testing coupled to the heavy cash position in a very weak junior space, i see a 2 pronged approach, add additional assets at favorable prices whilst forging strong relationships with faster growing JV partners. - Best case we see further gains in the SP in the very short term (Days & Weeks) with the Worst case being a short term fail leading to a longer term reshape of it's p/f through strong cash position. 

Golden Saint Resource: GSR has seen rumors bandied about with regards to news from its batch/process samples etc. After some digging I can confirm whilst there is much to do in order to reconcile the heavy losses investors shoulder, It does help point to short term relief which maybe the stepping stone they need to bounce aggressively up from here. The more pressing bunion on its backside is Darwin, the route out of this hole is to terminate any business with them under such terms. 

African Potash: Can Afpo go down? well of course anything is possible however its my belief the bottom is being hammered out and once things start to surface from Ed Marlows recent trip to the Taj Mahal then you may well just see a bumper ride. '' Yes thats right, Ed has been to India '' Make of it what you will but if a deal is done with them then expect huge returns from today's share price. 

Paternoster Resource: I've talked a lot about PRS over the years, I've rarely felt as positive about the near term future of this company as I do today with its current cash position, Investment roster and new strategic investors. at 0.25p on a binary basis the stock looks well placed to the upside.

Rockhopper & Falkland Oil and Gas: I'm scantily aware of the current OP but then I'm acutely aware of the markets condition and the OP back when the Sea Lion discovery was made. Lets not dilly dally here folks, RKH has a big chance out in the South Atlantic and the beauty of it is PMO (Premier Oil) are carrying the exploration costs - I see the Falklands becoming a very very interesting play for 2015 but not without some chance of risk, however the first drill and the build up should be the best.

UK Oil & Gas: As much as I have shared my thoughts on my old spa Leni, I'm no mug when it comes to picking them at the right time. Whilst some are speculating what the company are going to do I'll give you a good idea.

HorseHill - News on its proven value likely to hot up nicely.
DECC 14 bidding round - Winning or JV on new assets.
Portfolio Insight - UKOG specific news to be updated.
Finally - DL secret weapon.

Anyway the fantasy players believing in Stellar Resources Gold,Coal and HH assets I'd say you have one chance of success (Real success) but its really not all cricket... 

After being asked about Sunrise Resources I'll just say I'm sitting on what I believe will be a big kick in the nuts or a nice new motor, there are many reasons why I believe in SRES but you can't push water uphill so when the sectors are cooling you have to be dogged enough to take it on the chin whilst the cyclical trends change '' And they will folks, and they will ''

So for now lets keep eyes on the next 2-3 RNS from Boxhill Technologies (box) and Sperati CA (spr) starting next week we will see the recovery of one and the start of the beginning with another. I'll be following these companies closely as further incredible changes are likely to play out this year. Look at the next few releases and the people who are not posturing to get involved with SPR or the Casino growth coupled to its financial gaming gateway improvements by Box.

All the best


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

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