Sunday, 26 October 2014

DocsLaymanChatter XXVIII

What a week in the markets, share price snakes and ladders seems to be the order of the day as the schizo markets changed its mind yet again. In the wake of a wipeout wave during october the calming of the storm has descended onto the small cap sector. There has been plenty enough excitement for one week so here's to the weeks events but not before we focus on a few well discussed principles one should hold.

When good news breaks the markets generally know before the retail hence an aggressive pull back pre RNS, Likewise if a disappointment is coming we often see a rally and tank on news. This is not always the case and we must put this into perspective as the memorable cases are those that are really hyped up leaving the expectation well ahead of probable outcome investors are thrown into uncharted and unexpected territory which in essence presents the sacrificial lambs. We as private investors need to have a strategy in every event, but most of all try and remain as balanced as physically possible.

The talk of the town has been Horse Hill, expectations have been built up and many are left asking questions, at this point it would tee me up nicely to sling shit at Lenigas however I think the damage has been done there and its a pointless exercise but what I will comment on is BMD and the attention that he has had for breaking the story early on. It happens that if you give private investors what they want '' Early shout on news '' then your an areshole because you didn't then take them by the hand and execute their position one way or another. Some would argue P.I's are best left like lemmings however I disagree and believe that simple,robust principles which are applied without emotion can really help investors get a grasp on how to beat the markets maker.

After Vigorously defending David Lenigas and clearly with a good source close to the operation it begs the question was my friend BMD thanked by having his tits twisted with yet more misinformation or was he absolutely spot on to report his findings? I tend to agree with Ben Turney when I say Dan had a duty to report the news, whilst folk argue the detail it really was a big call of which I believe BMD acted for the best and with rightful interest of others. Let the final outcome do the talking and also remember that this was valuable news '' Big scoop '' even if the follow up reaction was not so....

UK Oil & Gas: Tanks on the portland oil discovery update by HHDL, I have stated all along that I believed Oil would be found at Horse Hill and I'm sure there will be another twist or turn in developments 3 miles north of Gatwick airport.

Independent Resources: IRG took off on friday with record breaking volumes this year, with lots of demand from the retailers to secure an interview with the company I look to find out more about a company whose shares here have traded significantly higher in 2011 & 2012 at 100p and 40p respective, clearly much has happened, the SP languishes at 8-2p this year however there does seem to be a disconnect between assets and the market cap of £3m more to follow.

Northcote Energy: Traded significant volumes mid/late last week, this is a real bull signal regarding newsflow. The markets build up expectation and anticipation on what's due! here it would seem that the company are trading off their 12 month low point giving an excellent binary play if nothing else. there has been an acute focus on the oil price which has helped depress all the oilers recently however a decent piece of meaningful news will set the hare running back towards a penny. '' watch out for shoats creek ''

Sunrise Resources: I have chatted a little about this undervalued mining company that has been hammered down recently, again trading up off the lows and with a healthy operational period upon us sunrise has enough to heat up the trading weeks and months ahead. Take some counsel from the recent RNS and look at the Gold,Diatomite,Diamond and Silver assets, things should start to tick along nicely.

Savannah Resources: I have been asked much about Sav via social media over recent weeks, let me clear I have not simply ignored the requests I'm simply looking at the pro's and con's to its current portfolio of assets against the Bergen funding agreement. I think should they slightly tailor their agreements and kick off operations then the company could move back towards the previous high's however Its one to analyse further.

Armstrong Ventures: Is an out and out punt stock that has recently announced Peter Redmond to the bod, Redders is something of a quick starter and slow finisher i.e he'll have a plan on how to create interest and big swings north then often sits on his hands at a slower pace. I believe that AVP will potentially pull out a white rabbit thus a good short punt play. (you are playing Russian roulette here though folks in some respects)

All the best


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

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