DocsLaymanChatter XLIII

This week we talk more about the markets events, much of it has been filled with the excitement of the CEB resources podcast with Justin Waite of sharepickers in which Dave talked about his future plans within the listing remit, this has been questioned by some market commentators citing '' crossing the line '' having met Dave I'm fully aware just how professional he is in everything he does, more so how annoyed he would feel at the thought crossing the line as he's an extremely professional individual (I say let the powers at be decide) however the story looks pretty good for those invested.

On the flip side we see Sefton resources hit the rocks, as sad as it is for investors there was no shortage of warnings. I recall being interviewed on the ADVFN podcast (ironically) advising that the smart money would move from SER into CEB and low and behold they both suspend on the same day. SER in utter failure and CEB pending an update on the 26th October 2015. SER lost 98% of it's value whilst CEB gained 100%+. Regardless of the propaganda pushed out by the axis of evil the testament of time always proves those that are fit to operate at this level.

Only the strong survive, and knowing the game is just as essential....


I shan't revel in the SER demise as I genuinely hope investors can recover from this but advise investors learn from this before jumping in feet first in the future.

Today's tweet of the day came from Bang bang Levi...

BrokermanDaniel @BrokermanDaniel

@Chairman_Nick Where's the sefton Resources money gone you thieving bastard! £1m in cash July 31st!! Where's it gone?

Barron Wuffet then went on to reveal his Intelectual hand...

''Hope you have legal insurance YOU BASTARDS when i find who has stolen the money ie £700,000 in 90 days i will be after YOU '' #SER

Clearly the boys have learnt a hard lesson in Karma, I just hope that they can find a place in which they can find positive expectancy moving forward.

At nobody is watching o'clock ADVFN released there results '' Ouch!!! '' what a mess, they fought off an approach to requisition the company via a legal battle (Irony here too) which left the board exasperated but just about still in control. The balance sheets look like a train wreck which may help explain why the Advfn board of directors agreed to join the Sefton hot seat, again messy but cash heavy (ut oh sorry the money has gone) and in typical Laurel and Hardy fashion you now have a situation where Hodges and Chambers are involved in one company that's today suspended, damaged and with dwindling cash, whilst clinging onto Advfn who could if they don't cut costs quickly could find itself trading insolvent.

The hot spot in the results is other administrative expenses of £8.755m from revenue£9.2m Losses increasing from £454,000 (2014) to £1.56m (2015). clearly the company makes plenty of money however the distribution of that is not keeping shareholders in a healthy place with an ever expanding waistline. Advfn shares closed down on it's 5yr low of 65p, which I anticipate will look worse come Monday morning when the markets reopen.

I suggest that the focus should be on regaining what was once a potentially strong and prosperous business model instead of cavorting with Barron Wuffet and Bang bang Levi.

Keep your peckers up

Doc

DocsLaymanChatter XLII

After a long break we are back talking markets, the Marco picture remains uncertain with the micro markets becoming the frog like science project that many 80s kids endured at school. Mining seems hot on the agenda for 2015/16 with a murmuring of positivity towards the buy side of blown out resource stocks. The catalyst to change is the complete grounding of all normal correlation as trading pairs appear to have divorced one another over the last year. Gold,Oil and currencies all look disconnected which paints a perfect picture of  anarchy.

As the years draw on we flip from understanding market mechanics to applying them which is actually two different concepts. I accept that some people follow the blogs etc and get it... Others however do not which leads them to believe there is a more sinister outlook of the markets. I want to be crystal clear when I say '' I have made the bulk of my money in the markets from technical analysis coupled to a clear vision of market mechanics '' the latter I see as following short term momentum & sentiment which by its very virtue is nothing more than a technical extension. Call this what you will but the testament of time has proven this works time and again.

Lets look over the markets and perhaps evaluate the movers & losers across the small cap markets as well as a quick look at the bigger fish in the pond. Remember we have to be able to forage in other areas otherwise we handicap ourselves, forcing us back into the net when the trawlers about to haul.

Paragon Diamonds: Caught my eye this week, the confirmation that a heavy weight bear raid was underway was quickly addressed by the company with a bullish sounding RNS which suggested the company were very nearly there. However a number of points remain unclear, how will they fund the PLC costs as this is not a part of the debt facility with the balance sheet looking thin at £300,000 with an outstanding loan £500,000 now overdue to suit. PRG needs another $80-$100m (By PM admission here) with the mines not due to get into full production for 18-24 months. ITGT are still apart of the future plans but not in the financing at this early stage. Finally Friday we're informed a significant shareholder was selling as of 23/9/15, I must add PM sounded extremely confident which mirrored the RNS they put out. I get the feeling there is more to this than meets the eye however should Paragon navigate this difficult period then the business offers real gem stone potential '' Time will tell whether its a 1p or 10p company ''.

CEB Resources: We first flagged these up at 0.25-0.30p, many investors attended a P.I get together in London where we were fortunate enough to hear a little about Whitby's plans moving forward. Dancing Dave did not disappoint as he described his plan to farmin into producing (revenue yielding) wells in which CEB would optimise and increase production & revenues. I've covered much of this over the many months yet feel important to recognise a guy who stands outside the office and personally greets (by shaking hands) each and every attendee whether or not a shareholder.This says a lot about the man, I anticipate the market shall not have to wait much longer, it just leaves us waiting to see if they still have enough rock & roll to get the market to its feet.

New World Oil: New was a taboo company for quiet sometime however one of the most major events over recent months has taken place. Aside from short comings of a self professed oil analyst accidentally spending his mums pension buying half a company. The alliance trust who acted as a brake on the stock by consistently selling into the market at 0.07p has now been taken out, which will mean that on any consistent buying we will see the companies share price rise like a salmon at spawning season. I have it on good account that the vote is with Adam Reynolds joining the board '' I'll be pledging my 1% of the company to that vote '' however to me it makes no odds. If they want to drill the market will speculate on it's outcome as recently witnessed with Red Emperor from 1.5p to 7p before its duster. To further compound the unofficial vote, I believe the Reynolds call has 35% or more of the vote as we speak, if the Board don't walk I'd look to carry out a full forensic review of the companies books and practises as clearly there is a reason these guys are clawing at these positions.

Glencore: Wow what can we say other than that collapse from 350p to 180p before bombing out at 66p was a real wake up call for the big boys in the game. Billions has been wiped away from the companies market cap and we as investors are left perplexed at who'll be next. The rebound has been strong although I anticipate another scorpian sting down to 45p area should there be a sniff of further bad news.

Keep your pecker up

Doc

Thoughts Moving Ahead...

As of the 1st September (today) I shall be open to working on projects which create shareholder value and stimulate positive expectancy, this will not come from working as an IR/PR relation to a company but more open to discussion which leads to a winning formula. I anticipate some people will question this announcement and statement so for the avoidance of doubt I DO NOT work with or in any capacity formally with public listed companies currently but more importantly DON'T want to be ring fenced from considering an extended idea pathway which may-well lead to positive expectancy / returns. Having worked tirelessly for 5 years within the aim markets and much longer within the wider markets, I believe the winning formula is not to act as a conduit or mouth piece for companies but more offer a solution translation between the retail and corporate disconnect thus affording both worlds the opportunity to interconnect.

There will be NO paid for promotions nor will I deviate away from the current method of working within the markets as an out & out investor. I have found personally that remaining a lone voice in the face of prosperity or adversity as the crux to securing credibility which appears to be in scarce supply within the London Markets. I want to reiterate this is not to suggest things will change but more allows me to remain transparent to followers etc in my idea's of helping to harness value for listed companies and its shareholders. During my time there have been many many offers to align me with certain operations within the City which in turn I have never felt compelled to engage however as time draws on I have passed up the opportunity of input as I've never felt there was the acceptance to do so. I now feel a sense of clarity which may enhance my ability to find solutions & success from my experiences.

I hope this message is open,clear and to the point. '' Ultimately I'm an investor running a majority held (retail) Hargreaves Lansdown broking account looking to compound gains from a well structured strategy '' which now involves the potential to engage ideas which lead to enhancement.

 

All the best

 

Doc

Meeting With Prospex Oil & Gas

This week I had the pleasure of meeting Ed Dawson of Prospex Oil & Gas, I found Ed to be quite an affable yet cautious man who clearly didn't want to talk out of school, so on this occasion I became a good listener. The company raised £1m and is currently capitalized at £1.02m which kind of suggests the risk has been taken out of this aim cash shell, so whats PXOG and Ed planning for the future?

I talked about the attraction to aim cash shells from my own previous decent track record with Oil & Gas shells, none more so than UK Oil & Gas or Mx Oil (formerly Astar Minerals) The catalyst to great returns are a clear and concise outline of what the company intends on doing to trigger value creation for shareholders, particularly those bonkers enough to get in early.

Rather than waffle on in a sales pitch manner I prefer to look at the facts, Dawson and Co. come from an institutional/hedge fund deal flow background, the impressive back story of creating a $100m deal with industry majors or a consistent year on year place on the hedge fund podium at RAB capital it became clear that the guys at PXOG are more than well positioned to have a fair crack at progressing Prospex Oil & Gas on.

The simple way for this to happen would be to vend in some attractive assets and bingo '' we have a result '' however Dawson wasn't to willing to let the cat out of the bag on how this would happen other than to remind me that he doesn't want to piss on the chips of people who have been prepared to back the company in its embryonic stage of the cycle. The early move advantage often comes from showing foresight which is where I am personally as a shareholder of Prospex, some can argue that this motivates me to give a one sided appraisal of the situation but to be brutally frank there isn't actually to much we know right now.

Its important to understand the strategy -

To acquire meaningful assets with high impact near term deal flow not dilly dallying with shooting seismic for the next 18 months. (Check)

It's important to understand the Boards back story -

This comes by the virtues of historical success, ED worked successfully in finance & management of Junior O&G companies whilst holding a keen analytical eye on what works against what doesn't. (Check)

Getting a sense of capability and Viability -

Does the company have the capability to make this transition in tough markets and is there enough interest to build. (Check)

The surrounding influences within the company -

The management team has a historical (combined) Billion dollar deal flow from seed to sapling sized business before well engineered moves into the junior natural resource arena. (Check)

(Note) - Whilst I hold a bullish outlook on Prospex I do however understand the need to move things along, I feel confident that a deal will be done sooner rather than later however in light of transparency I would suggest should the company not secure a deal this year then they are at risk of becoming another modest cash shell wasting space on aim.

I'll be talking more about PXOG in due course.

All the best


Doc



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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

DocsLaymanChatter XLI

As a kid I would sit watching VHS videos with my dad, the ones that your mum doesn't like you to watch but the ones all dads love to share with kids. I remember a particular scene where Johnny had gone into the forest with deputy Kern hard on his tail with his group of deputies, Col.Trautman walks in as the official, sent from Bragg to bring their man home. 

Company leader to identify Baker Team - Rambo, Messner, Ortega, Coletta, Jurgensen, Berry, Krakauer confirm! This is Colonel Trautman. Talk to me, Johnny

The story goes of John Rambo an ex- Vietnam war vet caught up by the snare set by his own government, now left in limbo aimlessly wandering state to state without purpose place or need. C'mon you all remember the film and the story line... 

During the past couple of weeks this scene or movie resonates with the markets more than anything, gang banging corrupt officers! Blood hungry dogs, a broken system with a government that seem to have forgotten them. At some point normality will return but with China in Crisis and Greece between a proverbial rock 'n' hard place then It's no doubt fair to say we can expect a choppy summer and potentially a turbulent continuation during 2015. 

Regardless just how good the Jedi mind tricks are, or in fact the Mr Buffet beating snake oil sales man peddling the Italian princess's clients, we as private investors have to measure whats dictating the markets price action. We must treat the markets with contempt, believe little to nothing while trying to insulate against wipe out protecting capital being the paramount ingredient to keeping us in the game. That said unless you intend to take a 2-3 month break then you have to try to yield some returns from the markets and I believe this will come by identifying the weakness in a turning peer group/commodity. I believe resource stocks with finance already secured are now basking in shallow water leaving a spear fishing session worth consideration as the chase the ace of junior resource stocks kicks off over summer . (manage expectations and don't steam roll into the markets, rather take a measured outlook) 

Kodal Minerals: After hitting the markets at 0.90p a wham bam thank you mam pump took them to the dizzy heights of 2p, today sits at a near 95% loss. The company has some cash, operational news pending and crying out for some love. Consistent updates,momentum and support are needed, when this comes in you have the recipe for value creation. Kod is one of a string of cheap looking stocks that should the micro mining trend flare up again then I see plenty of upside. 

Noricum Gold: Have been on a roller coaster 12 months in the market however with a decent cash position circa £900,000 coupled to an expectant work program / update leaves investors more interested in Fridays session ( closing 17% higher ) NMG have already drawn the line in the sand with its recent results released 9th June. I've personally backed this one for much of 2015, I remain moderately confident.

Nostra Terra Oil & Gas: After announcing a new chairman (Ex-GKP Financial controller CFO Mr Ainsworth) the company has more recently announced a JV partnership with the U.S second biggest private company. Yet shares remain stuck range bound at 0.145-0.20p should any slight weight of positivity drop one way or another on the scales of success I can see Ntog growing stronger.

Prospex Oil & Gas: A small funded shell, furnished as one (if not) the cheapest aim vehicle, Pre- Pxog the company was a washed up gold mining company who's board managed to crash the business however with a completely new outlook and setup Prospex are searching to acquire / reverse value accredited assets into the shell. The Board have £1m cash of a £1.1m mcap which smacks of a embryo MXO / CEB in the making. 

AIM is a very tricky place, great when you are winning but terrible when taking heat, I advise all investors to protect capital, understand the markets mechanics. I also urge investors to carry out as much due diligence in the people they support within the alternative investment markets, yet again today BMD pens a piece of diatribe and nonsense. The modus operandi has been well reported and the cack handed 2 suddenly fall into the arms of Miss Whitford, you see they cannot progress single handily and with the markets not taking the same line of bait twice the boys have to capitulate. Now that doesn't fit the remit of bad boy Dan from Manchester so a gentle bonding over some Ellerton dirt will do the trick. 

Prickles and nettles will never stop stinging, its apart of the makeup but should you be able to make a clear path you have a chance to succeed, history cannot be erased however the future can be changed i wish Miss Whitford the best or luck and damn I'd love to see Sefton shareholders get some of there loses back, if this means BadmanDan and Snake Oil making money by virtue then so be it but be under no illusions of who tanked the SP while financially hijacking others for personal gratification using there public presence.  

Note: It has been suggested that I am the Kaiser soze of Aim, masterminding short squeezes while working over dozens of aim stocks!!! I still await any evidence of this or a long threatened expose, '' You see folks bullies work to either cosy up to you or destroy you '' please remember who was invited to Annabelle's ( and refused to sit at the table of greed ) or who helped Mr Levi only to then be attacked when failing to capitulate with cheating and shafting UK investors.

Keep your pecker up Folks....

All the best


Doc



https://twitter.com/DDS_Doc_Holiday


http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.com/

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

Potential Scam Being Operated - Beware

Warning!!!! Please share, don't become a victim of this scam. 

It is understood that a man with a beret on looking militant accompanied by a weedy looking fellow wearing a pinstripe suit and '' Krays '' like glasses are rumored to be in the Trafford Centre operating this scam, one victim reported. 

'' Today I was walking through the Trafford Centre when I was approached by a smartly dressed man with a che guevara mask on  who asked me if I would like to smell his cheese. As he asked this he gestured his hand towards my nose which was in the extended palm position. Being a lover of cheese I saw no harm in taking the man up on his kind offer. 

As he brought his hand up to my nose what I hadn't noticed was that his other hand was in the clenched fist position at the base of his extended palm (see picture). When his finger tips reached my nostrils I could neither see or smell the cheese and it was too late to retract as his now perfectly aligned fist of the other hand was now traveling towards my nose at speed, which then struck me with considerable force.'' 

There was never any cheese! This was a scam to catch me off guard and punch me in the nose.
No matter how much you love cheese do not accept offers to "smell my cheese" off of people you don't know and for fucks sake never believe everything you hear in share world either. 

Keep your pecker up folks

Doc 

DocsLaymanChatter - Midweek Special

As the markets become a mine field of lies,deceit, and dishonesty private investors feel the unsolicited wave of uncertainty rolling over them. The markets are rigged folks, the excessive level of corruption never really hit home until the anchors are slammed on the markets and things start to go in the wrong direction. Now before everyone runs out and hits the sell button you have to consider where in the cycle is your investment and will a drier liquidity level significantly change the game for you? 

We know that the markets slow down, we know that private investors are often stifled into selling at the wrong point and of course we know just how green private investors are. This leaves people with a conflicting sense of what they need to do against actually doing it. One has to take preventative actions however the bulk of the investment community start to take such measure right at the pinnacle of change and on the wrong side of a trade or investment. 

Never find yourself buying or selling on emotion, never find yourself allowing wider factors affect your day-to-day decision-making and for crying out loud, KnowTheGame folks... 

Capital protection is paramount as this is the foundation to what gives us the ability to invest / trade. Never lose sight of how valuable your capital is. 

Whilst the last 3 weeks has presented the shitty end of the stick towards private investors we must all remember that the markets are built by design to draw us into making the wrong decisions at the wrong time... hail a sucker rally or best a pre Grexit pump!!! I expect the heat will come back at the end of summer but a few bright days before could well be on offer. 

Don't expect miracles but use each and every roll of the dice to improve your personal position - '' Money can buy you a good dog but it can't buy you a wag of it's tail '' 

Savannah Resources: SAV recently announced a deal that all LT investors new it could secure, naturally any lag of news forces the impatient to exit on any sniff of interest however Rio Tinto is a little bit more than a flim flam deal so I expect to see many more twists & turns 3p area looks good value on what we know now against last week. 

CEB Resources: Came out of suspension among a lot of speculation with the SP getting anchored by the placees taking there fill and moving on, personally I see another MXO in the making and whilst this is exciting it all takes time. I have added to my already significant position and will intend to scale in further as news / deal flow should be pretty encouraging. Whitby is no stranger to value creation with his last shell running from $1.6m to $600m market cap.

Afren: Is the company under the watchful eye of aim, are we seeing the death role playing out of a celebrity investor name taking his place briefly on the podium or is it literally a pre crash rally to allow the boys out??? - Time will tell but I see folks making some money out of AFR over the coming weeks but it won't all be clean money. 

Keep ya pecker up 

Doc