Weekend Chatter Vol. VI

Today we look at cycles as an extension of the SMVP piece here, Once we as investors clarify the markets mechanic/effect on one and all we then look to determine our own pathway through the quagmire.

Nostra Terra  Has fallen at the hands of speculators,rumors and conjecture using the calculation 2+2 = Whatever? The point being the stock is in the BUY zone yet the piss and wind comments on bulletin boards have set a despondent and depressed attitude.

The complete contrast has been SER who managed for a long time to create an environment of hope based on the suggestion that Dr Ali report would be the catalyst to all things good, currently we have Tom Winnifrith and Dan setting the stall out in a way aim regulators should have done with the Nomad continuing investigations. '' How good does it actually look ''

REM Investors hit the jackpot with the stock nye on 10 bagging returning a pretty penny for the speculative buyers.

The Aim market continues to share the feel good factor with precious metal opening the can now letting the producers with a $1300+ cash cost back into the game.

Gold futures rallied to an 11-week high on Friday, after disappointing U.S. new home sales data dampened speculation the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its bond-buying program as early as September

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for September delivery rallied 3% on Friday to settle the week at USD23.73 a troy ounce, the strongest level since May 9.

On the week, silver future prices advanced 2.1%, the fifth straight weekly gain. Silver prices are up almost 24% since hitting a three-year low of USD18.19 on June 28, placing it firmly in bull-market territory. (Full article here)

This week I covered Bmz, Tom and Ser at www.shareproprophets.com offering a layman opinion on whats hot,not and not yet... Black mountain appear on the cusp of a major correction as the company go from non revenue making explorer into a tangible producing operation, a rising silver price can only be a good thing. TomCo are likely to have news as early as mid-late september which should start to wake up the P.I's.

Finally Sefton resources resonate like a benny hill sketch here

I have stated on the SMVP site we would start to go interactive which has seen a chat with a few seasoned Investor/traders should DLC readers want to join in then please feel free to leave comments.

Looking ahead we have a number of key points to remember regarding the stock markets...

1.) Embrace the gains in the small cap - Hold the same stance on de-risking and locking in gains

2.) We are seeing relief not a full on bull run - Value the downside to limit loss and maximise gain

3.) Don't subscribe to the dream and fantasy of a brand spanking new sports car! keep the used mondeo approach just a little bit longer.

Mining stocks are lifting after 12 months of pain with precious metals mirroring, natural resource including Oil and Gas are but a number of sectors that are showing signs the valuation curve is about to blow...

I don't advocate shooting from above the rim thus maintain a responsible,robust and reliable approach to the markets.

Midweek we focus on a number of opportunities the whooping and hollering have missed. Enjoy the extended break and all the best

Doc

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

The passage of time...

'' Let there be light ''

Wow what a week so far! Aim has been red hot with a number of turn rounds from Ecr and Solg both have seen huge rises, Although nothing on REM who have galloped up to 1000% over recent times.

The quiet man is RRR who are looking to be turning a very bad run into a light relief as the share price starts to react to the asset sale news. KIBO have been doing really well coming from the June low point of 2.5p up to todays 5p with JV news likely to add a significant chunk of upside. My only thought is the JLP JV which turned out to be a bunch of hot air.

CPP seems to remind small cap investors the risk they take when entering a party zone late when all the other clubbers are home in bed!!!

SER has been an absolute shocker, Its a disgrace to see some of the immoral actions of that company and against my better judgements of the past I offered the short sell rec at 0.42p to 0.30p which has nearly come twice in as many days click here

ZIOC jump out the range from 10.5-12.5p hitting 14p in quick time, I guess the market are starting to see that there is a stonking upside against a limited downside. Early TP 20p with a long term TP of 55p.

NTOG still trade flat again another pending big runner IMHO. Won't bleat on to much but would say that the piss and wind rumours of a placing are only that and it may be worth the unsophisticated investor looking at the unpriced significant change that has happened. BUY

ORE keep pushing ahead off the 0.25p tip at www.shareprophets.com the stock is likely to trade higher again.

I wrote three pieces this week, two published and one in the system, Black Mountain is here but will speak more of this in the weekends round up.

I will catch you all for the weekend round up with one word '' Cyclical trends.....  ''


Doc

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Market Round Up

 

How the week played out...

We look back at the week's action but remind ourselves the reality of trading/investing on the London stock exchange.

The city is a beautiful yet brutal place depending which side of an investment you hold, Many retail (private) Investors fully subscribe to the story of greatness laid down by the company...

This is merely a decent act of PR and Marketing, the catalyst to make the right investment/trade boils down to delivery from the company along with strong fundamentals,reliable presentation of its assets and a responsible stance on risk.

Lets not focus too much on the hocus pocus here but slam into the memory bank these few simple principles.

* The city is not always as transparent and clean cut as you may be suckered into believing.

- Its a dark place with folk queueing up to kick you between the legs and empty your pockets.

* There are 25% less listed companies now on aim against the high of 1700+

- This is a reflection of the shite being weeded out (There are more likely to come)

* Brokers,Nomads,and IR are all paid for thus have the companies interest at heart.

- Many media outlets are also providing paid coverage thus work hard to clarify all of your own DD.

Stock News

Rumours of Gulf Keystone's takeover surface again after the company rebound from a lustreless performance over recent months, Xel,and Blvn are making the same noise! In my opinion Bowleven look good value at 50-60p area.

Ecr minerals rally on news updates as the daily throttling eases off allowing the share price to run on. Is this buoyancy aided by genuine support or another rumour mill push? Undoubtedly there are still many points to consider but we reiterate that ecr have positioned itself in a much stronger position against early 2013.

Nostra Terra have traded flat however the CEO met shareholders at the RMPC in Clerkenwell which was well received, Matt is posturing towards a bigger entity.
(The company look a Buy on a risk/reward basis)

Orogen Gold Share price correlated with the move in trajectory both in spot gold price and sentiment towards small cap miners.

Amara - Ama screamed buy Thursday however this was a continuation of the bod supporting the company buying stock and achieving major milestones, the shareprophets.com piece is here: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/1337/amara-mining-a-buy-at-13625p

Tomco Energy have been showing some interest and volatility however the company stated they know of no reason for the rise, I scratched around to try and clarify was this a smoke and mirrors or piss and wind statement? My thoughts are there is no news yet! (watch list) however hope to speak with the company next month to validate a few thoughts...

Lek Oil Is now a company in my own portfolio as its obvious the initial news of a significant discovery via joint venture Afren has really not been factored in. As we know the company sidetracked in order to quantify a bigger than expected discovery - the statement '' we exceeded ''

Noricum Gold what a performance of late, the tale of the tape is the sector is hotting up and noricum do not want to appear left behind, As the stock winds back in the chart the next significant point is the 1.2p which would offer a bunch more upside and confirm the full trend reversal.

IGAS Retract a little after the shale boom in the U.k seems to have found further objection, I always wonder is this through hard facts or conjecture? If the theory is as good as the PM and COE suggest then start to educate and demonstrate. '' Put up or shut up ''

Motive TV Joke company look a slim picture of its former self now 0.0135p against 0.030p when we last reviewed the company.
(Its not a investment or a trade play! '' Can they get the next placing away? '')

Bears look to rev up the taper news and bulls looking to stampede for now its a few more weeks of volatility until we have a one way trajectory in the small cap. Keep your investments close and your trades closer.

I have been in dialogue with three to four Oil and Gas companies recently and feel at least one has a compelling story.

I'm not mentioning Sirius (Sxx) as last week a few pissed off shareholders stopped patting themselves on the back as it was rising like dirk digler and now look to blame everyone for the flop! (Pardon the pun)

Back to a more serious stance on the markets soon for Doc's midweek chatter.....


All the best Doc


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

DLC Weekend thoughts

In the wake of choppy waters we look back at this weeks action in brief and validate thoughts shared both here and DLC. For most of 2013 I have been discussing on my twitter feed and old FB page the lackluster value in SXX! This week some of the fears have been felt.
Sirius’s: finger in the hole type approach had to come to an end sooner and whilst the retail are feeling the pain i suspect at 9-13p they start to present some potential and worth for the more savvy looking to enter.

More on Slme,Ecr,Prs,Ntog,Sou,SclpGbp,wsg and rrr here:

http://seanbenn.wordpress.com/2013/08/09/this-weeks-review-of-the-markets/

(Fridays post from SMVP)

I had a request from John Arnold to clarify my position on Ecr Minerals. '' I think i have been clear that i support the new look Board of directors and also the responsible attitude they show to salaries,remuneration and expenses ''

The previous board clearly spent a heap of cash and delivered little. I hope this is the positives needed.

The con's may be possible unrest which could eventually encroach on the Itogon asset along with the implosive sentiment the previous Bod initiated.

All in all I'm swinging towards the bull than the bear whilst i work to clarify my thoughts

Regards Doc


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Today's Tuesday chatter

As we run the rule over the markets today

We see some obvious changes in the small cap sector, Sirius minerals (Sxx) plums new 12m lows and the old trick by the company to stem the flow with a meaningless RNS has lost its attraction there are a bunch of companies that use this method to talk out or up a situation. Today's news also announced that relations with its broker had fallen down.

 The Company's brokerage contract with Jefferies Hoare Govett ("Jefferies") has been terminated and Jefferies will cease to be a broker on 26 August 2013 at the end of the contractual three-month notice period

We also see Red Rock Resource (rrr) take off on its sale approval of the Greenland asset, I mean Edison's say its worth an insane amount in the share price and who am i to argue but will say this '' The whole story looks complex and unattractive '' They have a chunk of debt and will no doubt need to get on a funding drive.

Paternosters (Prs) share price goes up on Nav expectation and whilst its nice to see Paternoster at a sensible level I don't see how they can exceed the previous Nav value to much the two now appear to have aligned.

Scancell Holdings brush themselves down after the of over cooked news as they today trade at 39p. The shareprophets.com had the call correct and will be revisiting the previous review over the coming days.

Afri holds (Afri) 1.5p as the company present some of its fleet complete with livery, The newly formed company seem to be paving the way to bigger things

Lenigas (Lgo) looks to be filling a gap on its trajectory to 1.05p, Bopd capacity upgrade should be influential on actual recovery or another visit to the dark days of 60's.

Magnolia pet (Magp) investors now seem settled at the current share price of 2.45p, The constant release of news now wearing thin and the realisation that cheese and crackers could potentially cost more than some of the recovered from its RNS releases, '' I'm not as sure as i was at 5p that the train would derail further I would say that the engines got alot to do in order to get its load moving back up ''

Lek Oil (Lek) are still on the sidetrack which can't really go against them as the Afren Jv partner have already announced decent numbers, anything else is a real bonus which could have a real impact on the 38p buyers.

Frontera Resource (Frr) swings back towards the 1p? I'm not convinced this is anything more than a piss take these days.

Rialto Energy (Ria) show 12% up over two trades worth £3,000 yet the SP is £1m more - Talk about trade action not meeting price action.

Sound Oil (Sou) Closing mid price is right on the pivot point to rebound back into support or another slight tip of the scales towards 9.5p, early trade will dictate the divergence 

Petropavlovsk (POG) trips up on the gold test, as we hold the litmus paper in the air we have a reality check on gold and the stocks that correlate - Pog is starting to look cheap again! responsible multi tranche buying starting around 73-68p won't do to much harm in the greater scheme of things.

Medusa Mining (Mml) saddled with a problematic upgrade. Now the company's production has slipped below expectation which is having an awful effect coupled with the gold cries. I anticipate buying at the pound/teens or possibly £1 are not out of the question.

San Leon (Sle) 5p area with a Ceo who was drawing off upto £1m a year salary, I must readdress this to validate my thoughts and quantify the value of paying that amount from its performance. '' Is this a fact? i'm checking the maverick journal ''

Sefton Resource (Ser) Continuously I read how the Jim is doing investors proud etc etc. '' I just see a bunch of desperate shareholders trapped and lost in finding a resolve '' When SER release news that warrants a decent rise and offers its shareholder some upside then I'll give such posters the credit and doff my cap to the cappy tan....

All the best Doc

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Nostra Terra Oil & Gas

It's Friday again and the end to another week, I have covered a few companies this week with a strong focus on Nostra Terra oil & gas after an extensive chat to CEO Matt Lofgran, I'm acutely aware of the Jedi mind tricks Bods on aim try when speaking about there undervalued, well placed, super duper cooper trooper business they are running! '' Often this is a crock of shit and the companies are looking for funding,struggling to get funding or knee deep in the quagmire as they attempt to make a life saving executive decision to initiate recovery...

I called Matt off the cuff a little while back with a focus on perhaps some of the darker parts of the company, I actually had some preconceived ideas about Nostra and its CEO. After our brief chat i decided to look at Ntog closely which motivated me to write the recent reviews as well as a interviewing Matt himself.

I have to say my findings on the company and the CEO were a real surprise, Matt is a down to earth, easy going, highly motivated, hard working guy. Ntog have showed a real turn of foot after its rise like a Phoenix from the brink of disaster. (one day before the plug was pulled)

What's been achieved?

* Assets are outperforming by significantly exceeding expectations against peer comparators
* The company are now on something of a level footing (as best aim companies can be)
*  Gastor's $85m acquisition encircling Ntog-Ward speaks volumes
* The company has started to break even or in fact go black ahead of schedule
* Operators with operations that can unlock upside in a bear market will do well in a bull run.

Whilst Matt appears calm at the water's surface i believe under the surface he is paddling tirelessly to add lower risk, high reward upside to the value curve.

It presents a good binary bet for the investors looking to paw the smallcap oil & gas sector as aim becomes ISA able. I'd like to wish Matt and Nostra all the very best in the future and hold a personal opinion this is a success story waiting to happen.



The article is here: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/1219/q-a-with-matt-lofgran-of-nostra-terra-oil-gas


The Uki 2013 presentation by M.Lofgran is here: http://www.shareprophets.com/video/1199/nostra-terra-oil-gas-at-the-uk-investor-show-2013



All the best Doc

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