DocsLaymanChatter XIX

Egg and Spoon - Band of Brothers

The band of brother that are the city elite control the hearts and mind of many retail investors, applying military like offensives in order to distract private investors to what's really taking place in the marketplace.

Have you ever considered how a pump on a company has happened, as when you last looked the stock looked stone dead in the water?

Have you ever asked yourself when studying L2 how the wall of resistance has crumbled turning the shares price action on its head?

Have you ever wanted to understand which frequency to tune into in order to get ahead of the curve?

The stark reality is you have to play the game long enough to understand the rules, #dlc is designed to short cut some of the pain! allowing investors time to observe and follow the events without getting too caught up in choppy waters or worse falling foul of the markets curve ball.

If we go back to our school days '' The egg and spoon race '' did you ever see a kid slip there thumb over the egg? did you ever slip your thumb on the egg? kids have a great innovative ability to find ways of winning regardless how good their hand eye coordination is..... '' Its the competitive edge to succeed '' this animal like instinct evolves throughout life and whilst I offer some layman interpretation thus taking away much of the technicality behind this, the frank point is those kids are now playing the game on forums,chat rooms, blog sites and within financial public forums / bulletin boards.

The thumb on the egg is now the individual making the early call on companies!!! again growing in reputation as savvy,cute or infact the great expert. There's no science here.... If you can follow an economic calendar, understand the basics in news flow and quite simply calculate simple formula then you're on the fast track to sliding your thumb over the egg and dashing to the line. This week we know that paternoster (Prs) are overdue end of year results (i have been banging on like an annoying dog barking next door) or that the market is looking at Sound Oil for some operational developments which has all been announced in there previous news flow. or we focus on the shareholder action at gulfkeystone (gkp) as they plan to unhinge the CEO strong hold on the company.

These actions will have material effects on the companies in some form or another as the news steers the markets with reaction coming from these great examples of guerrilla marketing from collective adverts by way of sentiment control (what? what does this mean) P.I's start to harp on about the next big shift and inkeeping in the chain the market capitulates and vice versa. All in the interest of driving liquidity into a stock. This then opens pandora's box to the company? they themselves start to play the trump card (media interviews etc) as often they want to raise capital or inflate their valuation in order to justify some cleverly worked remuneration incentive without shareholders batting an eye because they themselves are in the good times.

This plays out daily, watch and learn before ever entering into the next egg and spoon race.....


All the best

Doc

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

A Fools Errand - From Blaggard To Laggard

A Vision Of Friendship...

What a wonderfully revealing week, Strange phone calls, threats and misconceptions from the retailers (Private Investors) '' Where to start? ''

Okay the constructive part of this week came from the surprising response to an off the cuff #dlc regarding investor / shareholder psychology in making sense of - '' What's real and what's not '' It looks the same, it feels the same but it stinks to high heaven. Aim companies have to fulfil a criteria to make it public, if your cute with circumnavigating the paperwork, you have enough kudos or bullshit to bowl a googly to the listing authority... '' Well suddenly the dream starts to become a reality '' However this does not mean the dream will be a pleasant one or one you may wish to have again.

Example: (Based On An Unnamed Irish Collaborate)

If your mining gem stones in Helmand province wearing jeans cut down (half your arse hanging out) a dusty pair of military surplus desert boots and a t-shirt saying '' fuck the Taliban or women's lib '' then your unlikely to be doing it very long. Although if your a clever group of entrepreneurial business men with a raft of proven listed (mainly shit) companies registered on or across weaker global markets, well then '' yes you could allude to the fact, this is what you intend on doing backed up by the relevant geology studies and business plan etc, '' then you have a pretty good chance of getting it off the ground '' (watch this space)

Okay okay before you think I'm a raving loony just harness this fact! - Nearly 1/3 off all listed companies on the aim have evaporated since the high's of approx 1800 companies. £24bn was raised over the last decade bringing these companies to market so in theory £8bn has gone a.w.o.l. (This excludes placing's once listed) Jesus the depth of the nepotism, corruption and blatant mismanagement is beyond comprehension.

Were you aware of these facts? Where you aware that the city loses money year on year and has done for over a century thus has to create a continuous vacuum to suck in the retail funds?. I'm not here telling you not to invest, not to trade or not to trust. I simply say know the rules of engagement! Manage your expectations and please remember that this game is built by design to empty your pockets! These basic simple principles will help you, as it has me become a winner and not a statistic.

The picture at the top of the page is my dedication to my friend '' Big '' Dave (I'm showing here through imaginative vision how I see our jackanory journeys together),  you see BD is angry with me right now to the point he had a helping hand get in my face for raising shareholder concerns at a recent investor event whilst making false allegations that I hold no stock. Therefore have no right to comment or ask a question, forgive me but the investor shows are designed for that very reason, needles to say I remain undeterred and steadfast. Perhaps the stupidly suggestive remarks towards my credibility or working relationships (some could take as a threat) hold some water!!! '' They don't so here is my carefully drafted public response ''

((( Cough ))) Fuck ((( Drum Roll ))) You... or as the judge proclaimed recently when referring to your own (cred) ability in winning a legal action - You present '' a weak and thin case ''

Blinking heck why are we northerners such vile creatures to dare ask for clarity or transparency from this murky world. On the other hand over the coming weeks and days we will start to talk about real companies with real assets compounded with tangible,proven ability to exponentially provide value creation.

Today's LaymanChatter maybe something of a little caustic but its nothing more than a component of the viritol nonsense that circulates amongst the city of London.

Tune in over the weekend for a more detailed serious look at what's presenting value both long and short.

All the best

Doc

* Note: The gloves can come off Davey boy but remember your public history and the fact I have a pretty good record at finding a turd hidden under a rock, The modern world is but a click away.....

Sefton Resources '' wtf happened ''

In 2013 the real gravity of nepotism applied by Sefton Resources (LON: SER) surfaced, like chairman Mao '' Big Jim Ellerton '' would sit at his desk fuelling his egotistical belief that '' Nobody would ever be smart enough to find out how the mechanics of the company worked '' - I won't speculate too much as the poor guy cannot defend himself as he lies in his Hawaiian Paradisiacal retreat! Not before systematically destroying Sefton's future

We really have to focus on abuse cases on London AIM as it helps us understand the deep rooted barely regulated workshop or incubator the alternative market can be. The rules of engagement are designed to favour those with the brass neck to front out such complex, convoluted companies. Many offer a fair risk/reward where others offer the Jekyll & Hyde experience of investing within the small cap.

I won't say big Jim's a crook but the fact he no longer heads the failing company says it all. Considering he had also been charging for "further advice" through consultancy agreements was incredible. '' Why not leave the windows and doors open whilst the toxic gas outside threatens to further poison '' Err distract '' the company.

This year we have seen six equity draw downs of which each shows a growing desperation to get there hands on whatever pittance they can. The reason for this is the Bank (Of the West) needs the interest paying on there heavily weighted debt of which the Bank has every right to exercise. Unless changes are made quickly, resulting in a complete overhaul I'd say the end is nigh as the B.O.W pull the strings which in turn will pull down the shutters. No more Sefton Resources.

It's staggering to myself and many commentators that some Private Investors remain insistent in even considering '' let alone holding '' Sefton Resources '' Unless there's a white knight riding to the resuce with $4.7 million dollars then the company is toast. There is no white knight daft enough to throw $4.7million dollars at the Tapia field that costs $5 dollars to make $3 dollars!

Take heed of this case and let its gravity ingrain your investors mind: '' Hitler once said if you tell a lie big enough and for long enough people will start to believe it '' It's almost to late for many but not late enough to retain some dignity.

 

 

Doc

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Sound Oil

Recently I caught up with Sound Oil both prior and during the UK Investor Show on the 5th April. I shared my thoughts (Click here) Whilst at the event I spent a great deal of time meeting and greeting companies and investors alike, The event exceeded my expectation and to think this was only year two...

Sound Oil had one, if not the best stand at the event from a visual aspect and the very fact they had a comprehensive team in attendance really did echo how serious they were taking the event. Italian MD Luca Maddeddu presented the breakout room presentation (Click Here). Which really did start to show the shape and strength Sound Oil had made over the past 12 months, Both under the stewardship of Luca and Leo in Italy along with Stuart and James in London. The misfire of 2011 boils down to the company thrusting itself into the minds eye of many P.I's during a particularly bullish period in the markets, After a choppy couple of years divesting unachievable assets in Indonesia and reshaping the old Board we today see a streamline company with a proven method of value creation which formed its head of steam in Friday's announcement (Click here) of a £14 million injection at an average price of 9p from institutional investors Continental Investment Partners SA.

Operationally the company has Rapagnano delivering first revenues with Casa Tiberi on target to deliver first gas in 1H 2014 or first half of this year, these projects will keep the register ticking over respectably whilst the bigger success of Nervesa continues to prove rewarding. In September 2013 we were informed:

''A stabilised total gas flow rate of 2.7 MMscfd from multiple sandstone intervals in the Upper Miocene San Dona Formation .''

The Company is also pleased to confirm that, following a revision of its reservoir model for the full field, the P50 estimate of recoverable gas resources at Nervesa has increased from 21 Bcf (with an estimated NPV10 of US$58m) to 24 Bcf (with an estimated NPV10 of circa US$66m).

So with an increased recoverable resource proven at the Nervesa project which is already to spud a second well during the first half of the year which should initiate cash flows of $60m+ throughout 2015, coupled with game changing assets like Badile it seems straight forward to understand how the company managed to secure investment into the company on such favourable terms.

Badile should become apart of Sound Oils ever evolving active operations later in the year, to scale Badile against the respectable cash cow of Rap and CT-1 then its pretty much like Jack and the Giant beanstalk. The small seed of Badile has been planted and with is 60% increase on the previous CPR then we should start to see further high end growth creation from here (7p)

James Parsons, Sound Oils Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"Badile remains the largest and most strategic asset in Sound Oil's portfolio. We continue to prepare the Company for drilling this asset with a view to capturing the upside NPV, which now exceeds US$2 billion."

Full Rns here

Sound Oil feature on page 54 of Fridays times as '' Deal of the day '' I guess the front page is the next step for the small cap Mediterranean E&P company. I urge readers to now look at the transformational makeup of the board. '' If they can't do it then nobody can '' - Foundations look a lot stronger and with a much more robust asset portfolio.

28/04/14 Today's Q&A Live - Click here

Stay tuned (Click here for audio thoughts) follow me on twitter here


Onshore low cost deviated drill to offshore Laura asset anyone???


All the best

Doc

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Something Stinks....

Roger Lawson a self-proclaimed paragon of virtue EXPOSED

 

We often ask ourselves how independent opinion is in the markets? This brings me to Roger Lawson the Deputy Chairman of ShareSoc a body campaigning for transparency among PLCs and shareholder rights. Surely these self-proclaimed paragons of virtue are beyond reproach?

Lawson wrote a piece after the storming UK Investor Show speech by Ben Edelman slagging of the blinkx critic as a showman, a man with nothing new to say and a man paid to write bad things.

I commented originally here however I am afraid that I have new revelations about Mr Lawson that I must share with you.

The critical point here is that Edelman did have something new to say and it was damning about blinkx. I quote here from a recent shareprophets piece you can find HERE

Edelman’s standard research contract – as he explained on the video – is that he charges a fee for doing research and writing a report. But if the research shows nothing amiss there is no report so the fee is less. That is his standard terms– less work = less fee. He states that clearly on the video. That seem okay enough and at least Edelman is 100% upfront on any financial interest he may have in blinkx.

…. no other revelations of note?

1. Blinkx bought nearly all if not all of the assets of Zango a firm shut down and fined heavily by the FTC for breaking the law.

2. Edelman showed clearly that blinkx is now engaged in exactly the same activities, even using the same code.

3. So blinkx is breaking FTC rules – is that not a matter of concern?

4. Edelman then showed that the blinkx independent report had not examined any of the relevant data but had merely consisted of chats with blinkx execs who said they were doing nothing wrong. That is a bit of a shock revelation is it not?

In other words the Edelman presentation was explosive and damning. But Lawson gave comfort to blinkx fans and was widely quoted on bulletin boards for dismissing the whole thing and for rubbishing Edelman. But there was something City establishment figure and all round good fellow, Jolly Roger Lawson, did not bother to mention in his piece.

Roger owns blinkx shares. Yes you read that correctly. He has been on the shareholder for some time...

So while Roger denounces Edelman who does declare a financial interest, Roger himself does not bother to declare his own financial interest when penning an inaccurate character assassination of Edelman, he relies on an old admission to his interest in blinkx as acceptable. '' I beg to differ '' You see when penning such critic's I believe an open declaration a moral obligation whether that be owning a single share or a million.

I have pursued this line with the deputy chairman of a body campaigning for greater corporate transparency but his response was to (I won't quote) suggest i'm an idiot

I guess I just do not understand these City types. I am just a thick Northern working class git. So I would have thought that an “idiot” was one who wrote a wholly inaccurate piece giving a misleading impression of material matters about a stock which (undeclared) he owned. But as I said, I am working class and a Northern git so what do I know?

Roger is the expert on transparency and questioning companies that break the law so I guess I should just go back to my slum housing underneath the motorway and leave it to City gents like Roger to look after the interests of plebs like me.

All the best

Doc

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Mid Week Chatter

 

After what has clearly been a busy month and start of the 2014 I now intend to wind down somewhat for summer and write more in depth analysis on small-cap companies. I lost a few follows on my twitter feed when I moved up the ladder significantly into large capped companies, this was a deliberate effort to demonstrate that the principles applied know no bounds as long as you remain disciplined,dogged and determined. Ocado at 617p was about as good as it can get for me with regards to the big fish short bear cry however Tower (Trp) is a close runner up. It had been muted that I could only skin a cat one way or to be frank allegedly '' I was picking micro cap companies to manipulate '' I discussed this with a few people at the investor show and quiet typically refuse to hide away from difficult questions so rather than argue tooth and nail my moral stand point I simply believed that the calls further up the chain would vindicate me! I cannot be sure this remark won't be thrown at me again but for those that doubt my integrity find my publicly posted coverage here or across my twitter feed.

Tower Resources (Trp) 6.5p - Short Sell Currently 4.3p from a sub 4p take profits)

Ocado (Ocdo) 6.17p- Short Sell (Currently 328p)

Rolls Royce (RR.) 975p - Long (Closed out at 1050) Target high 1100+

A few we mulled over along with Tate and Lyle and one or two others, I'm firmly back in the driving seat and after a few questions thrown at Afriag chairman Lenigas I hold court on which way I'll take the responses as quiet clearly old Leni must have thought he had some minor victory when he announced '' Piss off Doc you know nothing about announcing news to the market '' Well I guess he has a point but then he doesn't have a very long memory as hours later he was sat barrel chested proclaiming why a company like his (I assume Lgo) and another well known small cap aim E&P company wouldn't merge.

In his words '' It would cost £1 million - why should/would shareholders have to foot the bill for that? ''

That's a great point indeed why should shareholders foot the bill for such stupid decisions? I leave you with this: LGO pursued a "weak and thin" case....

Who picks up the costs accrued from a case that is weak or thin which failed at every stage? click here

I mean the markets are awash with contradictions from narcissistic egomaniacs who may believe a small skirmish provides short term bragging rights..... '' Wrong '' We know that the convoluted manner in which the markets are designed are such that making forward progress can be extremely tiresome, many retail investors kowtow to its heavy weighted demands but should you decide to set your barometer to grind then the rewards can breach all of your expectations.

As for Afriag well I hope that the management take on board the simple needs of its shareholders and move away from the '' Its ours '' mentality, to correct iceberg's blog (which I salute you for) Afiag is not co owned by Paul de Robillard and Dave Lenigas - It is owned by you the shareholder.

The company is an investment company which reversed into 3dr (The vehicle) the result was Scottish enterprise owned a chunk of the newly formed Afriag by default so saturated the market with there sell off. Clearly this and one or two personal issue's (the major shareholders '' not owners'') has held Afriag down. without any doubt the board are now aware what its investors need, we wait to see if DL will even open dialogue.

To coin a phrase by Virgil - '' They succeed because they think they can '' so at risk of sounding a condescending pretentious git I'll move on.

Paternoster Resource: I covered PRS a few weeks ago when you could buy at 0.3p or a tad below, the company seems to be going through the motions again and from what looks to have been bottom. This time NL has forged a relationship which meant that getting the paternoster word out was easier. Click here coupled with EOY results due anytime and a change in direction of Asta,Andiamo,Nap and one or two other projects it seemed bonkers that the SP languished at the sub 0.30p level

African Potash: I mentioned Afpo in dispatches over on the shareprophets and have been asked why is the Sp preforming so badly after a great rise up from 2 to 4p. I guess the attention is on Elemental who had a firm offer from the Chinese, this deal looks unlikely which could mean if Afpo's technical guy Non Exec Dr Dorling has done his sums correctly then Afpo have a potash licence ready and waiting. This has to be where Marlow is assigning his time (quiet rightly) however we can but wait to find out. '' Would anyone decry a takeover? '' I suggest not.

Ashley House: Away from resource we have Ash, the company has been on the back of a torrid time as she slid from nearly 30p to 11p, things seem to be on the road to recovery and this little company could well be trading at double today's share price however patience is needed here for a solid 12 month investment.

Northcote Energy: Came to market on the back of a fashion in these onshore oil plays click here however over recent times we find Nct flat as a pancake scrapping the barnacles off the barrel in some respects. Being a stickler for recovery plays I addressed Northcotes ethos of identifying proven resources of a producing nature. Again another great start for an Oil & Gas company to actually have some of the black gold on tap. To split the atom of depression here. Nct has been down on its luck within, what is a less than buzzing peer group although the Ad. Doc. (Link provided) shows that the marketcap is now at that of the assets cost. $10m back in 2012 so how much downside is there at £5-6m? Not alot hence my suggestion it will lift

All the best

Doc

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

BrokerManDan - Back In The Saddle

 

 

 

BMD - Takes No Cheap Shots From Bob

Recently we received word that Dan had yet again defied the bully boy attempts of the legal system, Dan I believe had some business dealings with a local builder who mistakenly thought BMD was all mouth and no trousers. '' Big mistake on all accounts '' Bob (The builders name remains anonymous) confronted Dan flexing his guns and offering typical bully boy threats before attempting to clout the old war horse, Dan's a tidy scrapper from up this neck of the woods and doesn't take shit from anyone particularly not jumped up Bob with his fake suntan and popeye like arms.

Needless to say the act of self defense and defiance sits my old mate BrokerManDan at the top of financial hard knocks, I weighed him up when I met in Manchester during 2013 and while his polished appearance may have some believing Dans been put out to graze, I judge a man by the pace they walk (quick) along with the size of their hands! I'd hazard a guess that BMD will remain marching on many a battle front shaking his fist with disapproval before being retired to the upper paddock.

Welcome Back

Doc