Docslaymanchatter XXVI

This week has seen some significant swings in the markets but nothing quite as fascinating as the Scottish referendum. I say this not because of the number voting or the result but simply how intriguing people are, even today folk believe that decisions like this are made by the people! It has been my opinion for a long time that minority capitalist communities control everything other than anarchy which is something that every regime in history or across the globe fear most. This is normally the start of change but in the modern western society we really are to well trained to revolt so in short we abide by decisions made by the few to control the many.

One man one vote is rarely ever successful as this concept is reliant on the democracy they live under being fair and honest '' I mean c'mon really '' - Enough of my opinions lets look at the markets...

In last few weeks we have seen a real uplift in the horse hill excitement which has helped the flagship UK Onshore oil play and associated companies as their share price rise like a salmon in spawning season. With this in mind and with a success of a discovery beneath them Union Jack Oil is showing real signs of picking up over the coming weeks more to follow, click here.  (to listen to the ADVFN podcast.)

The pounds been under the cosh from the Scots referendum aswell as macro economics fealing the heat from economic events, the brent price hasn't done any better however this is rumoured to be the end due to the majority vote strongly favouring the Union remaining whole.

Interestingly the markets showed renewed strength from the IPO of Alibaba and its instant hit with investors leaving early investors significantly up. This reminds me of the Royal Mail IPO which triggered a pretty good run from October 2013 '' Lets see if mid September is the trigger to the 2014 run '' surely all this money sloshing about shows some confidence.

Mirada: Mira announced a new contract this week, I have followed this story for a little while since my old pal Tom Winnifrith flagged it up at 11.75p with a 24p target price (I agree with Tom), I bought a little stock as the leaks from the city were good, needless to say the CEO released news mid week yet the windy markets didn't bubble with excitement. This lead me to connect with the CEO (Phone call) which can be heard here. I think you have to look at the bits investors have missed. I expect more news and soon

African Potash: The company announced decent initial results from its first hole drilling from its Lac Dinga potash project, however this was off the back of a very slight delay which i believe is the crux behind us not seeing a bigger market reaction, again this caused me to probe Ed about their findings and push a little on where he see's the companies recent developments. The result was typical of a decent guy like Ed Marlow  you can hear it here. Things look to be progressing very well as expectation appears encouraging for hole two (which is well on its way), The CEO is in country next week so lets see if we have more for folk to look into. The markets are driven on anticipation and expectation....

Union Jack Oil: Ujo is slowly becoming a household name as its share price has gently increased over the last few weeks, we accept that all great movers need multiple stimulatory factors so here are a few. UK Onshore is brimming with confidence (Look at HH) Union Jack have reported a discovery which will be worked over in a couple of weeks, also Union Jack expect the spud from its next investment asset. The company have secured a big chunk of cash, with acquisitions of near term or producing wells being the order of the day. The primary reason is demand, this little oiler was crabbing along for over a year and suddenly they can raise huge sums of cash against its market cap coupled to a significant increase in volume '' These metrics are enough for most '' - I also take great comfort from my old mate Zak Mir backing the technical aspects as the shares trade above the death zone of the 200d SMA.

Inspirit Energy: Insp have secured a major trial deal with house hold name Calor Gas Ltd, with big rumors of a deal with a top 6 energy provider the markets and investors seem to be surfacing to hear more on its mCHP boiler, with new blood (Flow) joining the company it seems that a bigger and widely anticipated deal is on the cards.

Mx Oil: I have high hopes from Mxo over the coming weeks & months but for those of you who need convincing moving early into Mexico will prove pivotal in business, then take a look at the private equity slipping $500,000,000 into Mexico click here Or to hear my own thoughts click here.

Sound Oil: Interesting developments occurred this week with Sound Oil's conference call being put back, this is a typical news move and I'm banking on it being good, If not we are meeting the company next week one to one so can drag him over hot coals or pat him on the back. Feel free to join us click here.

http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/investor-meeting-london-25th-september.html


All the best


Doc



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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

Investor Meeting London 25th September 2014

Those investors with an ear to the ground will be aware that Sound Oil are presenting at the 67th Oil Barrel Conference in London on the 25th September 2014. There are other company's presenting but for me Sound are the main attraction.

 The Conference kicks off at 9am through until 1pm. Morning coffee and lunch will be provided free of charge. This should give those that attend ample opportunity to mingle and mix with the Company's in order to glean or answer your questions. Whilst I accept that it may or may not be some folks cup of tea I'm in town simply for one company '' Sound Oil '' thus since my open dialogue with Brokermandan (who himself was keen to attend) we went lobbying Sound Oil regarding a direct investor meeting with their team, after the Sound Oil presentation. It's a Golden opportunity for investors to actually sit down with a drink or a beer and speak man to man or woman (whatever) with their Top Brass. These opportunities do not come along very often.

The company as some may recall at the 42nd OB blew the socks off investors when the shares were exchanging hands at the equivalent of 70p old money so whilst some question '' Is this the right time to buy '' I'd say historically folk would of snapped your arm off. The reality is the markets are a very different place now to then, however the junior Oil and Gas space has felt about as warm a climate today as it has for a couple of years. On contacting Sounds' investor relations team and also dropping a call in to James Parsons regarding the extra circular meeting, I can confirm that the CEO, after a slight arm twisting would be happy to join and buy us all a few drinks (Let's be cheeky and ask for lunch)

Whether you're an investor in Sound Oil or simply a retailer with an interest in the markets why not join us on the 25th after the presentation in the city. If you're unable to make the Oil Barrel or are perhaps not interested then we will be meeting at around 11.30am through lunch to around 2pm

I understand the CEO has a busy lunch in the afternoon so should be around for an hour just before Noon. Yesterday my old buddy @BaronTrading confirmed he would join BMD and I, this should provide a great platform for us to discuss all manner of topics additional to Sound Oil thus giving air time to market theory, Company's of interest and general chit chat coupled to the feedback from JP's time under the spotlight at the OB that morning.

Email: Investormeetings@outlook.com  to be added to the meeting list.


Bests


Doc


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DocsLaymanChatter XXV

 

After an extended summer holiday this year I don't feel I have missed a thing! which was the feeling I had anticipated prior to making the decision to throw a black spot into the last 5yrs following things extremely closely. I believe over the next few weeks I can fill in the necessary gaps but accept If I'm adrift on a meaningless chapter in the markets particularly as the last 4 summers have been shite then I'll have to live with my decision. Well Its good to be back and enough of my waffle....

 

I'd like to draw attention to a few compelling pieces in which we see the agadoo type business conducted by our old friend Peter Landau, I'll be carrying out my own due diligence on these articles but it looks compelling to say the least. '' Whilst long term investors are diluted into oblivion the Landau related company reeps $70,000 p/m (click here) '' You have to be shitting me....

 

The other piece I believe reveals the possibility of how business could be conducted away from the prying eyes of retail investors comes in this article: '' Potential illegal requests (click here) '' you have to be shitting me...

 

The cold hard facts sadly are most private investors are lacking slightly in their research and this is down not to the lack of intellect,effort or will but the very fact that people apply trust,logic and legality to the way these companies are run which are listed on the smallcap / aim market.

 

This is fatal and has wiped billions from small retail (private Investors)  accounts leaving tens of thousands of people feeling unlucky, inadequate or worse in serious trouble '' wake up now to the unethical market practices '' use examples and evidence of bad practices by making a mental and physical note to yourself that this is a corrupt,dark and sometimes dangerous environment to house your hard earned cash.

 

Without wanting to continue with the Edward Woodward like approach there is some life and prosperity within Aim. '' This is the challenge to us all '' to root out and find the flower which blooms in adversity, As I roll into my second year of this blog we shall look at such companies by reasoning and understanding their appeal. Likewise we highlight the Japanese Knotweed of the markets whether this be a director,company,nomad or adviser that demonstrates rogue practice/s.

 

Leni Oil & Gas: Very Odd move by David to step down, after the company has been on an unprecedented PR drive whilst releasing a bakers dozen of RNS's in close proximity prior to the exodus of the chairman this leaves an unpalatable question as to why? (This is ignoring the flannel public statement fannied to investors) - make a note as i feel we maybe revisiting this...

 

UK Oil & Gas: Sadly the company failed to make the best of the strong technicals which were aligned to a pivotal part of the companies development, The lack lustre PR drive or poor attempt to show the action at HH through a 3 second video on youtube left many disappointed. Lets not get carried away and take this as all bad news as its simply a step back or setback. The likelihood of an oil discovery is good and if the truth be known I'd say we are very likely to see some success at HH however the momentum has been struck off a little, I watch for the rebound prior to speculation on news.

 

Nostra Terra: Announced last week that they are taking a bigger step into the E&P game, this is monumental for ML and the Ntog team in my opinion, often the company stick with a tight binary outlook leading to reserve,recovery and revenue on a smaller basis. If things start to liven up in Wyoming then I'd expect a further shift to the upside of current levels.

 

Gulfkeystone: The international community as well as western press are now firmly posturing toward the fight against ISIS and whether David Icke believe's the Islamist State is nothing more than a propaganda tool in order to hoodwink the west similar to WMD the long and short of it is most western civilizations can't take seeing heads literally rolling on TV or in the papers, as JFK once said:

 

''Mankind must put an end to war before war puts an end to mankind''

 

On this very basis I see a cavalry like ending which will result in GKP returning to 150p+ however we watch in anticipation and offer a deep regret to all those poor folk affected by the extremist believes peddled as the muslim religion, '' This is not the case and most who follow the Muslim faith do not condone this sort of behaviour ''

 

I will this week be looking much harder at finding the next big mover so please follow me on twitter here: https://twitter.com/DDS_Doc_Holiday

All the best

Doc


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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

 

DocsLaymanChatter XXIV

What a week, genocide in Iraq, yo yo attacks and peace talks in Israel, eye's have been distracted from the Syrian mess joined by Russia banning imports from the west. '' Yet we as the retail punters look to find a positive unaffected situation to house our funds in order to make a few quid!

However I start with a video that I found on liveleak here (not for the faint hearted)  The last 5 minutes are harrowing and sadly revealing '' How humanity has got it so so wrong '' I couldn't help but agree with John Snows short report on the people of Gaza's suffering due to a small number of people on both sides flexing defiance and oppression together....

I fear the crusades of biblical times shall return to force mankind into a losing battle, I just hope those that lead the global superpowers exercise intellect,humility,compassion and a dogged belief to do whats right... - '' Forgiveness is one of the hardest emotions to conquer ''

Anyway enough of my personal ramblings and more about the markets! however remember that the shape of the world reflects in one's portfolio...


Gulfkeystone Petroleum: Has tanked on the back of Isis aggression with the U.S flying further air attacks which has assisted the kurds in retaking 2 towns from the islamists thus making northern Iraq a slightly safer place for the indigenous and peaceful nationals. I expect special forces will now be acting behind enemy lines pushing back the extremists leaving Irbil and the oil fields at lesser risk than late last week. Sunday Morning played witness to over 3hrs of air attacks, I anticipate that the markets may see some mileage in this however expect GKP to be an extremely volatile place on tenterhooks.

Sound Oil: The companies performance has been great over recent months however I feel a trick has been missed here. The disconnect between how and why the SP is doing so well has been predominantly based on the recent institutional confidence shown via their investment at a significant premium. However the markets missed an integral indicator to its stand out assets Badile which is head and shoulders above anything else Sound oil has in its portfolio. Last week the company announced it had bought/secured the land from where the badile asset would be drilled, It's very possible the land has been purchased so when a JV / Takeout bid is tabled! the junior E&P has a serious leveraging point (land owner and landlord - Anyone). '' A lot of cute business has been done recently '' And on that basis I can see 20p short term a real target. - Look out Laura too...

Inspirit Energy: Whilst investors look to the aim kingpin David Lenigas as he cavorts across the resource sector the SP at INSP has fallen as low as a snakes belly '' Leni get off the floor and deliver some of what you promised '' The company has some pretty smart technology along with a particularly cheap valuation, on a risk rewards basis it looks a screaming buy.

Optibiotix Health: Has a pretty unique board of directors who have pretty much proven their ability to crystallize value for shareholders with a raft of previous examples, the company is in its infancy however don't be shocked to see the SP double at the shake of a hat. The free float stock is limited and my old pal Tom Winnifrith is uber bullish here '' probably because it looks a gimme which is aligned to a tidy net cash position v marketcap.

Some of the companies to watch are: Mxo,Wsg,Rci,Rkh,Sro,Ukog and Tate
Others to avoid are: Rrl,Rmp,Trp,Lgo,Stg and Qpp


Check out last thursdays Stockopedia piece on Westminster here


All the best

Doc



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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

Fables And Fact....

As the summer recess slowly creeps in I see many examples of misinformation,misunderstanding and lack of education, It's easy for people to spin you the line '' It takes years to become successful '' but that kind of pretencions statement does nobody any good.

Here's a few things that perhaps cause confusion with Private Investors

A placing is announced with an issue value (amount of stock) with the date they will be admitted, however we know that you can spread bet or take a Cfd's long or short of a company. Thus once you have subscribed to the placing you can then hedge. The time the stocks admitted is secondary, in fact you have the ability to secure your stake price which is an example of fortifying your position regardless of the stocks trajectory, the other is to front run or sell ahead of the curve. There's lots of do gooders that will tell you what should and shouldn't happen in this game but the most important thing is knowing the game, how it works, what's possible (or not) and how to circumnavigate the fish pool full of sharks.

You can't hit the board without throwing the dart folks although this doesn't mean you have to play 9 legs with Phil Taylor either, You simply have to get a number that fits your game and be happy with it. The thing that takes years (some people never learn) is to be happy winning no matter how attractive or rough the success is. You then focus on developing or honing your field craft, the returns will keep improving as will the strength of mind. Your understanding of terminology as well as the mechanics which form the small cap should then start to look slick. This takes time put nobody had to nearly lose everything to adopt these simple principle's

The docslaymanchat usually consists of a round up and a few words of wisdom but I've been cooped up in the hammock all week whilst kicking back and enjoying the fruits of my labours '' Oh and watching Gkp lose 12% since buying early this week '' granted today its probably more like 8% but hey such is life, I bought in as I believe this AGM and the whole debacle of Kozel was distracting and once out the way the company (Gkp) would find some traction in the markets coupled with a tidy piece of insight (News)

Astar changed name to Mx Oil (thoughts here) while Sound Oil (Sou) has made some progress recently which is based around the formality of the second milestone of gas production from its Casa Tiberi asset. I'm also picking up a lot more background noise from the city on the possible opening of communications with the oil major mentioned sometime ago with relation to the companies larger assets under management. All G&A (General Admin) costs are now covered so all the money spent is going into the exploration which is impressive. If the 12 month high is broken and closed over we may see a further run toward 20p. If not then its back to 10.5p so on a binary basis it looks a goer.

Rapid Cloud (Rci) did a placing recently which means the funds have came in at the same price as the IPO and while the shares were exchanging hands at over a quid not so long ago, today they SP sits around 55p - The company has already alluded to the fact an acquisitions on the cards in the next couple of weeks so profiteering from this level shouldn't be too hard.

They you have it folks a relaxed 5 minute of waffle,thought and explanation to a few facts


All the best

Doc



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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)

DocsLaymanChatter XXIII.

This week we look over some of the breaking stories whilst holding council on what's hot and what's not. The weeks action has been overshadowed by the standing down (fall from grace) by Gulf Keystone's CEO Todd Kozel '' I'm sure he'll be missed ''.

I caught up with the head hitters at the shareprophets and they are convinced categorically that a potential JV with Chevron is imminent, It won't take too much to get the old war horse battling forth once again.

International relations look completely broken with Syria,Iraq,Russia,Ukraine and Israel all making an unpopular presence within the news desk, some journalists find any news story these days with decorum bottom of some lists. Civilians,women and children are being massacred yet the global powers seem to lay quiet on the real travesty choosing to side with international power and influence. Yes thats Israel,Pro Russian forces and of course the mess in Syria.

Clearly the fact the markets have remained positive in what are uncertain times signals to me that we are in a micro bull cycle. I'd advise people consider how an end to the macrocycle and a continuation in conflicts will do for your portfolio.

It could get nasty out there unless we see a confirmed breakout into the super cycle. So what's hot and what's not.

Gulf Keystone: Have a change in executive management with a heavy city rumour of a tie up with Chevron. The markets concurred initially they were glad to see the back of TK and I'm sure many P.I's are also.

Kea Petroleum: Kea was a company I felt uber bullish on regards positive sentiment in New Zealand, they are on the cusp of operational updates however the fact they dropped a bollock by way of dating there RNS I feel there is a moderate positivity and a few questions to answer before confirming an out and out bull case although I'm not negative by a long shot.

Leni Gas & Oil: I managed to get the scoop the company were doing a placing the day before it was announced, the result was the corporate slur of its chairman '' Big Dave '' calling me a fool....
Perhaps being a step ahead of the city makes me an idiot but then I'm not the one making 100% guarantees there wouldn't be a placing then a matter of days later announcing a funding call '' I suggest the idiot is thee '' - The stock looks overheated and thus a sell/neutral '' not a buy ''

Nostra Terra: Has been a tad on the quiet side, this for me could well be the signal of pow wow by the CEO and his partner in crime Alden Mccall. Watch this space for a update on publicly suggested comments that the company is ready to take a little more risk thus a hefty chunk of the cake.

Magnolia Petroleum: After suggestion I was a bear on Magp I update that I now see the company more of a moderate buy or neutral (at worst case) The company has priced in bad news which is already known to the general public which leads me to believe an above or inline with expectation comment that may well boost the share price. '' I hear things are on the mend '' however we sit and wait.

The junior Oil & Gas space continues to offer up decent value return options so await the next big call here and on my twitter feed here...



All the best

Doc



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DocsLaymanChatter XXII.

Well I'm about 3% north of horizontal as the start of the summer break gets underway, I see the same old jibba jabba playing out in the markets daily. When will folk digest the rules of the game!!!

Its As Bent As A Whippets Back Leg
Its A Corporate Dick Turpin approach
Its Designed To Empty Your Accounts
It's Been Losing Money Inherently for 150 Years

Its The Markets Folks...

The continuous daily battles people engage in is highly distracting and becomes more of a moral crusade than a strategy, quieting out the background noise is paramount as balance is as much about the mind as the portfolio. We have to find the fulcrum point within our inner person (the mind set) which will act as a traders/investors subconscious thus helping procure profits rather than squabble over loss.

The #dlc will feature daily through the usual outlets however the feature audios similar to Westminster Group here will be broadcast at www.valuethemarkets.com

Asta's board and Tom seem to have found some middle ground for now so its over to the Cornhill duo to deliver further newsflow with a reassuring nature, the fact Stefan has been living out of a suitcase for 3 months is good enough for me as his commitment to drive the company forward, like myself Stefan has a young family so to travel overseas for long periods of time in order to complete a JV which will potentially open the doors to Mexico's Oil & Gas space says its all which is why I continue to supoort the team.

Westminster Group has finally gained some traction in the markets with a sudden correction to 65p and many eyes on the forming of a new 12 month high. I'd say its when and not if, we know from experience that whenever a company is on the cusp of significant news (good or bad)  we see an aggressive change in the companys SP. Wsg has been through the mill somewhat and articles by Pauly Pilot have not helped. I can see Pauls angle however as an accountant its very difficult to find some resolve with the company's current valuation although the metrics of the pipelines have not been fairly considered which is why I see further growth based on the 42 potential deals under management and the only real need to sign one or two as the catalyst to further significant increase.

Noricum Gold popped up back on the radars last week, it wasn't hard to see from a technical aspect that the stock was oversold with plenty of clear early signs that the bad times were coming to an end, I'm pretty sure Noricum will be back to 0.75-1p in no time however sentiment and momentum are still only mildly onside, if it builds a head of steam then it will shift along, if not then perhaps a slow recovery. The summer time benefits these small cap gold plays that are located in naturally freezing climates which is why they perform at this time of year and not over the winter time. but lets not forget that the markets are not a logical environment...


GulfKeystone rumors are still churning over regarding a potential deal with Chevron, the retail appear less than convinced as playing the keysor soze trick twice will be harder to hook people. Is it a case of genuine intent or just another clever jedi mind trick by GKP?

Rose Petroleum Never fell from the mango tree as expected which could support the reasoning the shed had already taken place at 4p the first time round and there is now a steady consolidation forming. The company has much to do however the sectors good which leads me to believe that Rose are unlikely to be the cause of great complaint.

Mosman Oil & Gas has been something of an enigma over recent weeks and whilst the markets seem to love playing Russian roulette, I personally don't see the risk/reward as an investor or even a trade. The ergonomics are not there in this one so I'll be avoiding it at all cost.

GoldCrestResoucres are coming to aim..... (make a note) more to follow


All the best

Doc



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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and are not adopted as a statement of fact)