Docs Layman's Chatter

Saturday, 1 February 2014

DocsLaymanChatter XXI

Have we become disconnected

As we embark on a new week, we leave a destitute one behind having myself scaled back 2/3 of my entire portfolio I sit scratching my head as exposure and volatility in the markets are the recipe for success if you possess the confidence of your own convictions.

To be frank I feel/felt that the news flow over the last and next week will quite simply be taken in a bad light regardless as the global recoveries sustainability is the new keyser soze in the markets.The interpretation of what drives the markets is derived from an ever revolving door thus fear has to come in many formats as does its contrary emotion of relief or jubilance.

When we consider taking a position whether a short term trade or a longer term view we still have to consider the wider factors attributed to fear or jubilance as this helps guide our entry/exit when completing an action. This very point is really one of the main hazards which is flippantly overlooked, After a year it is really time that readers hold an armoury of information to help circumnavigate the markets woes and windfalls.

As always this week we look at a few companies that are either on my radar or taking up a position of popularity amongst the retail...

Two mining stocks at each end of the spectrum

Kazakhmys: Plummeted to earth in a Felix Baumgartner fashion, A little while ago I called it a buy which was clearly wrong as it proceeded not to be my finest call however I tuned into my old pal Gary Newmans Piece here and have to say I completely agree with him that KAZ is due some serious relief and an old warhorse investor would be scaling into this company and buying into the weakness.

Kalimantan Gold: Tanked after its news that its major partner freeport had pulled out of its Ksk project leaving investors perplexed and heavily speculating, I had a chat with the gaffer Faldi last week and have to say the company is in much better shape than I initially thought, Briefly the company has a raft of interest in its assets which have seen significant investment to date. Tens of millions have been spent from this micro cap sub £2m Market Cap company '' I see a big rebound coming,'' Klg has $500k in the bank and have also made aggressive cuts to its cash burn which pretty much safeguards the business whilst it proceeds to open its data room. As of this weekend Klg are no longer tied to freeport so expect a more transparent newflow.

Round Up

Orsu Metals: I mentioned on the twitter feed as the simple facts are cash is king in a mining company and this one has plenty to go at, at 3.5p there is a stack of upside to the downside, we can analyze things far too much at times so I keep it simple '' People will wake up to the cash in its hand and see value '' Even poorly run companies have moments of greatness and its 10p bonanza not to long ago pegs a bullish hallmark in the chart.

Savannah Resource: Appears to have the retail bulls stirred up which now shines the light of liquidity in its eyes, This company has not gone unnoticed and was mention a little while ago here, having perked up a fair whack since then I maintain SAV is one to follow and hold if you're in, although buying at over 6p could be dicey until we see a technical or fundamnetal bias towards buying (watch)

Greatland Gold: Was tipped in the 30's and after a significant rise I advised taking some off the table both here and sula, clearly this was the right call and after realising rises of hundreds of percent we have to as investors digest the gravity of these gains and bank it.

Looks like a resource round up this week however during the week we'll look to diversify (If soundcloud comes back online that is apologies if your missing the audios, technical fault onsite at the mo)

All the best

Doc

https://twitter.com/DDS_Doc_Holiday

http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.com/

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(These are but opinions derived from my own experiences and thoughts and do not adopted as statement of fact)

Saturday, 25 January 2014

DocsLaymanChatter Vol. XX

Last Night I shared further validation on mariana as well as commenting on Aletco (Alo) along with thoughts on market mechanics here.

At some point my technical schooling by my old mate chiffa became second to writing and commentating on the markets, trading/investing is the tool I'm best suited to using so 2014 will be a year I return to significantly increasing the p/f valuation as a consequence I'll be scaling back my public appearances on some of the sites I appear, this is by no means an end but simply a break to focus more on my own personal position as well as penning layman articles through DLC which will remain a weekly round up and a daily audio.

Portfolios have to be robust and resilient and you simply cannot get this by going all in from a one dimensional view point. we as investors have to build a structure which will withstand the hurricanes of a disambiguous market or the affluent passage through each day/week.

Private Investors or P.I's represent all that is good and bad in the markets, a P.I will work tirelessly to research a company to validate one's thoughts yet only 2% of the retail market have the ability or credentials to do this which means in layman's terms that most of what we read on forums and even blog sites is utter bullshit (make no exception here) this presents the question what and who do we believe? As far as I see it you have to gently whittle out your understanding of the markets from experiences you have whilst absorbing those of others.

We/you have to understand that the complexity of the trade/investment only becomes clearer when you understand the wider picture. You build a picture of what is happening through your portfolio '' So if you're diverse '' You will feel the markets sentiment instantly, If not you trade muted from the bigger picture. O.k I'm waffling on however P.I's have to understand that should the Fed/Ecb or other major scale announcement come. you are:

A) Protected
B) Aware
C) Able to react

If you cannot do any of the three then you are about to encounter the biggest lesson of your life. Don't be a statistic and don't fall foul of the hype both built in the global media and the small end media. Knowledge is literally power in the stock market , '' Mechanics drive it - understanding this opens the door to success ''

Weekend waffle (Market mechanics) here: https://soundcloud.com/#doc-h-4/dlc-weekend-waffle

Review in brief on companies of interest and the broader picture....

Mariana: Marl perked up from 4p after finding its range, the company secured its funding package to develope its high impact assets. Rumor of hole 5 news flow coupled with a technical relief suggests that further weight will be added. We have to remember that the markets move each minute of each hour of each day.

(Additional shareprophets publication on Marl here)

Aletco: Alo Investors became frustrated by the Rns order last week which I believe will cost them dearly from a confidence perspective '' All in my opinion ''

Uk Oil & Gas: Looks to absorb some of the reflective sentiment from Total entering the UK, the major difference being conventional against unconventional (frac) Ukog shouldn't face the complications of fracking.

Acta SpA: I covered this company this week here ''Acta raised £2.1m from institutional investors, the directors have put their hands in their pockets at 7p in late 2013. At 8p we can see material block buying as the technical range looks to be buckling suggesting further upside could be realised. Based on Institutional buying at 7p, Directors throwing skin in the game coupled with a strong investment case I suggest a small punt is the order of the day.''

All the best

Doc

https://twitter.com/DDS_Doc_Holiday

http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.com/

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Sunday, 19 January 2014

DocsLaymanChatter XIX

This weeks Layman chat outlines the value of momentum and swing, the first lesson many private investors learn is wherever the masses congregate usually has gains adding to the register or soon to be big rises.

Sentiment, Momentum and popularity is the tool of the herd investor. We can never discount their value on aim however I urge private investors to take a more rounded outlook at their investment/trade career. In life we are all taught the universal notion of '' bad habits die hard ''

This leads me onto the solid foundations #dlc attempts to harness with P.i's. The theory is to look at a company from all angles head on and from an obtuse angle if needed.

Liabilities (debt/loan)
Tangible vale (proven)
Intangible value (yet to be proven)
Revenue stream (cash in)
Remuneration (bod payments)
Cash costs (Price per unit against market/commodity sale value)
Outflow (Cash going out)
Margin (whether profitable or not)
Gross/net (margin)
Significant holders (Skin in the game)

In order to stay ahead of the game and the interest creation that comes with mass moves on companies you have to already have quantified '' Is there a genuine upside being realised or a pump on a company '' this will help guide you through the forthcoming moves.

Below we look at a handful of companies that appear on/off investor radars.

Sirius Petroleum: Sirius are a company which has proceeded on its journey of sideways movement whilst a large share exchange has been taking place. I hesant to add that I actually think at 3p the value of the company is priced cheaply should the company actually put into practise the high value propositions outlined over the last few years.

Sula Iron: Sula I tipped at 1.8p via the shareprophets.com which has turned out to be a cracker, today I have suggested taking some off the table in a more formal manner. Bulletin boards have misquoted me on sula suggesting I'm short of sula or bearish and this is not the case. I am simply following the passage of my own experience and advising investors take some of the 282% gain realised in a month.

Strategic Minerals: The company lit up on rising registers as well as P.i radars Friday with a high volume interest from buyers. This is a classic signal outlined in today's chatter and one worth adding to the buy/watch list as the SP seems to be down in the 12 month chart and with a bunch of life now showing on sonar.

MTV Popular Pump: Still manages to keep a few well known bullshitters interested as they trade out the weak (new) P.I's who are bowled over by the romance of millions of shares for very little money with the notion they will one day make it rich, - '' It won't and you won't '' Sell for crying out loud.

Mwana: I flagged Mwa on the twitter feed last week, the SP took off from 1.45p-2.55p with an aggressive pullback to scratch however the interesting fact comes by way of technicals as the rise and the fall off the 200dsma is an early bull flag signal. Early next week will dictate if the pullback is a fake beartrap to sucker people in or a bull trap to sucker buyers in. '' Time will tell ''

African Potash: I won't beat the drum to hard here but its one that has been mentioned a few times now although still has not realised its total potential. currently the shares are trading cheaply so I wouldn't be surprised to see it shoot up another 50-75%

Leni Oil&Gas: This week Leni announced the Company's application for a Certificate of Environmental Compliance ("CEC") for the planned drilling campaign of 30 new wells at the Goudron Field has now been approved.

With a heavy focus on the small/microcap resource sector this week! Next week we will look at sturdy offerings of diversity.

All the best

Doc

https://twitter.com/DDS_Doc_Holiday

http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.com/

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Saturday, 11 January 2014

DocsLaymanChatter XVIII

Today feels like the first steps of a marathon in returning to my roots in the market.....

Friday had a poor reading on job growth which was well out and below expectation however the hydrostatic shock of the news recovered pretty darn quick covering the tracks of what could have been deemed bad news. Another example of why/how the bulls are taking the markets further and further which falls inline with consecutive and incessant projections of how 2014 would play out...

April-May will be the real test of the 10/14 repeat bull cycle or a typical slow down for the summer holiday season. Needless to say we are in the now and have to treat each investment/trade as if it were just another sunset at the end of a busy day.

The DLC audio (here) is ticking along nicely although not quite as frequent as I would like although we strive to improve '' The markets and how they work is similar to pandoras box '' find the key and you unlock the value. If not you spend a lifetime wondering.

Below is the usual layman chatter roundup of what's hot or not. Please keep sending in your thoughts and also retweeting/sharing and using or referencing the blog #Dlc. (It helps me not you but I'm cheeky)

Karelian Diamonds (Kdr): Managed to suck in the penny punters before spitting them out 4p down to 2.7p and quite possibly further drops to near 2p '' when will private investors learn?

Sula Iron (Sula): Sula has continued its passage through time holding onto significant gains after it was tipped by me on www.shareprophets.com at 1.8p, Should CEO warrell come up trumps then the next leg up after further consolidation is a real possible.

Pathfinder (Pfp): I covered Pathfinder for a bunch of reasons but the main one is as presentation of a company with a bright future and valuable assets suffering from a (turncoat) deal or a sobering chain of events. Pfp have assets worth up to $500m but have battled for over 2 Years to retrieve what is rightfully there's. The strong cash coverage of this £4m mcap company suggest there is a binary bet.

Inspirit Energy (Insp): Announced they were in advanced negotiations with industry majors after appointing Enertek to support the fast track of the mCHP boiler. All the buzzwords are here as is the retail support, I expect further gains.

Motive Tv (Mtv): Mtv keep churning out jam tomorrow statements along with a raft of placing. In my opinion the company is an absolute joke, should the tap be turned off then the game is up quickly as cash is a commodity in short supply.

Clontarf Energy (Clon): After once upon a time holding some bullish sentiment towards the company I draw investors attention to the pisstaking warrant/options in Petrel which seems to outline how the boys are acquiring their stock. - If and when there is a take over I anticipate they will have earned a few punts off this pair of doves.

African Potash (Afpo): African potash have some pretty tidy assets located within a decent geographic location with solid infrastructure. I wanted to draw attention to Dr Simon Dorling who seemingly has slipped under the radar as non-executive and geologist used by Elemental. Dr D has a wealth of experience and a proven resume.
(Elemental are in advanced stages of a rumored $175m takeover)

All the best

Doc

https://twitter.com/DDS_Doc_Holiday

http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.com/

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Wednesday, 1 January 2014

Welcome 2014

Happy NewYear folks....

With many still high on the joys of the festive period its time to allow gravity to slam you back down to earth, don't let the good feeling or wishes of prosperity cloud ones judgement when reviewing the markets from this day forward.

Gold closed the year with its biggest decline since 1981 however the overnights (Asia) looked grim and gold has clawed back some of its losses, my old mate Ben Turney will be happy as he seemed to agree with me that the shit can't stay in the fan... It often hits it, has an aggressive ride before correcting somewhat '' Long money on gold from $1200 ''

My tips for 2013 going into 2014 as published by www.shareprophets.com and (advfn) Onefreesharetipeveryday.com were Afriag (Afri), African Potash (Afpo) and LekOil (Lek) to be clear I believe we have three very different entity's and all have already been hugely profitable if you had followed them in 2013,

As we look to avoid the spell cast upon us by the markets mechanics, I urge all newbie investors to question and exhaust all possible outlets whether this be forums,commentators,exec boards or even the social media. Many have agenda's which are not aligned with what is best for you the individual. '' Beware of the spin ''

Currently I'm doing some research on a natural resource play with a bunch of reasons to buy from a technical perspective coupled with solid facts and ironically some school boy classic why not to hold such a company in the highest of regard.

The enigma that is Aim or the smallcap is know your enemy, know what can hurt and reward you most. All to often investors fall in love with a company without any leverage from the position they hold. I'm not suggesting that you don't back a company. I merely proclaim you do so whilst managing your risk and expectations.

Good luck in 2014 and here's hoping DLC grows at twice the rate...

Sunday, 15 December 2013

DocsLaymanChatter XVII

Good Afternoon,

As we reflect on the week gone by its yet another move towards the santa rally in a bunch of companies (more later) the prime question is will the forthcoming taper announcement inject confidence or slay further excitement.

I chose the words confidence and excitement carefully as often the doom and gloom is associated with analytical evidence of how screwed up the main exchanges appear, As a thick headed northerner with an eye cast over the small cap sector I often ask the question '' When will the city see no further value holding those long positions on the main exchanges '' If a collapse comes wether it be driven by the taper announcement or more importantly the wind of change blowing over the markets in early 2014 I still maintain a cyclical upturn year on year in the smallcap. The theory is any major exchange pain will subside as the aim has been butchered thus the potential investing/trading or simply playing from this level as a giveaway market, On the other hand should confidence continue to maintain its trajectory then this will surely resonate with the small cap's alternative market.

Many times I get asked how can you hold a proactive outlook on the small cap then tear a strip off the market? Well quite simply you have to understand the flight line of the company as its stimulated by need!!! ''the city's needs, the companies needs and the markets needs....''

The aim market is a feeding ground for all that is toxic and a breeding ground for all that is good, the line is so fine that we have to monitor the evolution of each company, measuring success and failing along the way. All too often the corporate language the city uses rarely mention the pavement of shite they themselves are walking amongst. The motivation for complete denial or '' The Nelson approach '' is due to their needs.

Value doesn't often fall at your feet in the markets however following simple,robust and proven principles help.

Savannaha Resources: This week I draft a piece on SAV put held of releasing it as the shareprice was getting away from the focal entry point. Alo has shot to fame over the last few weeks and while the company have tried to temper excitement the SP has held up quite well which has shown a natural reflective hit. The risk for the investors buying in the 3's is minimal but at 4.5-5p I'm not happy to cover. If it retracts I guess I'll cover, for now the company is getting plenty of lime light! which is fair to say and fair value offset against the current position in the grid for Savannah.

Union Jack Oil: has yet again moved off the bottom as buyers took the share price up from 0.26p to 0.30p the share price has a 12m high of 0.40p and a low point 0.22p I think the bottom has been founded, the ascending lows would suggest a retest and possible break of the high (0.40p) if that goes then its new territory, the risk lies with a fail and pull back to 0.27 area. Its very early days for UJO but I'll be looking at the company closer at the delivery over the next 12 months. '' Do we have a potential runner or flop? '' the passage of time will tell.

Gulf Keystone: I have been waffling on about this company for such a long time that its now becoming old hat to even me but when the SP hits that 200p then 240p marker we can at least reflect on the turmoil investors had endured before getting back to a relevant value.

Range Resources: I see Tom revised his position on RRL but to be frank I have not. I think PL is an awful CEO as he has pretty much capitulated to the hype. Did he create it? I have no idea. Has he delivered? Well the share price tells the story but the alleged back alley affiliations with people fighting extradition as claimed in this piece here is enough for me to avoid. As for forum fool wiggy well he was pumping RRL and USOP and look at the preformance £6 to 16p and 24p to 1.2p says he talks a lot of crap whilst masquerading as an intellectual investor. - Take heed of these charlatans on every forum. Remember every dog has its day but a confirmed bullish reversal is a much better entry than sitting on the forever eroding psychological jibba jabba of any company.

Noricum Gold: I have been critical of all the overvalued Solg/Marl etc. However Noricum has proved its ability now to trade at this level and as long as the SP trades above the 200dsma then I would suggest the share price will revisit 1.15p and beyond. .

http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/3040/noricum-gold-buy-at-084p-target-115p

I have been asked about ACP and DOR a while ago but I kept my feelings private however the Dor response was that the return cash wise would not be significant enough to value the business at 0.40p+ on a fundamental basis as of yet. ACP well I really hold no direct opinion other than a rebrand of a business which gives options to its directors of around 5% of the business and then raises a million quid invests in some potentially tinpot asset which suddenly thrust the market cap up significantly really isn't the foundation of a long term investment unless your due diligence is spot on or you have some inside info, Its my thoughts that the SP was plumped up to house a £550,000 fundraise which is pretty much the reason the SP in both companies has been going the wrong way.

Thats not to say you can't make a buck from banging the doors on these kind of companies! You just have to manage your own expectations against risk.

Well folks as the roast pork sizzles and I nurse a heavy head after the exuberance of the works night out, I bid you all a good afternoon....

All the best

Doc

https://twitter.com/DDS_Doc_Holiday

http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.com/

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Monday, 9 December 2013

Rivington Street Holdings - What next?

Good Morning, After a busy few weeks I feel compelled to comment on the recent revelations, largely from Dan Levi, on Rivington Street Holdings. The cold hard facts of day are pretty harrowing.

Sadly now shareholders are left stuffed like a Christmas Turkey as RSH shares are now suspended with the administrators and, it seems, the bosses now taking away all the valuables.

Where does it leave t1ps.com? Jim Mellon said he had bought it subject to FCA clearance on 17 September. Now we hear that he has not yet applied to the FCA. What must Richard Gill and his few remaining colleagues be thinking as they book a telephone box to hold their Christmas party in?

The question I want to know is why the RSH directors turned down cash bids of£1.15 million for t1ps and Minesite in September only to allow RSH chairman Jim Mellon to have an option to buy the same businesses for just £100,000 a few months later?

Is there a genuine complaint RSH staff and shareholders might have and how best should they escalate it?

I have no material interest either way but would suggest those investors that are pissed off at this time of year to bombard the very people that allowed this to happen. Dan has suggested that protesting at the Master Investor show 2014 might put Mellon on the spot. Yes it will and it should be done.

But why wait? Jim Mellon and Richard Gill – who I hear may be given free equity in a Mellon owned t1ps -surely owe investors an explanation of why the much higher offer was refused? This all happened while RSH was listed on ISDX so why not put a call into regulation at ISDX and ask them if they think it right that Mellon gets to buy t1ps and Minesite at one tenth of the level of an offer he and his fellow directors rejected?

Its pretty simple, honestly is the best policy! '' We all make errors of judgement or a mistake but to cover a cock up with an excuse is unforgivable ''

I genuinely look forward to seeing this one play out....

All the best

Doc

https://twitter.com/DDS_Doc_Holiday

http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.com/

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