Real thoughts and discontent

Today is just another day in the office for many but we as retail investors have to just pinch ourselves and remind one another this is really nothing new. Each Summer we see a gradual slow down as the markets unwind for summer.

OK the games a little different this year as the global melt down chatter hits the buffers again (I'm unconvinced) yet we witness Gold hit a 50% retrace of the highs towards 61.8%. All said and done we all know that the material value is not in paper however the global community don't yet seem in a hurry to go back to solids.

Why is that? Well we hear and see all the technical and terminal reports released daily sharing opinion and viewpoint with a bunch of reasons why our economy is in poor fettle.

I'm going to list a few things we didn't know last year:

Today double dip recession reports say we actually didn't suffer an official double dip recession although we were struggling. ( Major political motivation was based on it ) '' Think that answers that question ''

Banks are making much more positive noise. '' Again a complete contrast ''

Builders and house prices moving out of the black days of 2011-2012. '' Finally the money is being released from the banks which again reinforces my belief that the shit smells better today than yesterday ''

Indices have been running a muck and now its the turn of the currencies. '' Gold will statistically rebound ''

The long and short of it is I do see a slowdown but it has similarities and of course I see the flaws in the small cap sectors particularly in the ones that won't offer a sniff of action.
Perhaps I'm bipolar and see good and bad days ahead but i firmly believe that each sector is being worked from the top down and back up again and for this reason won't be jumping from any high buildings just yet.

Today we complain about the weakness in one sector as we view unvalidated highs in another.

There's nothing economical about the economy as the basic foundations are loosely based around waste and excess

That's the modern world folks and one through the eyes of a layman.

All the best Doc

* This is dedicated to the poster who emailed me '' My luck is i could fall into a barrel full of tits and still come out sucking my thumb ''

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Zanaga Iron Ore (Zioc:Ln) Update - 27-06-2013

Zanaga Iron Ore

Buy into weakness starting at 11p

Firstly I have to hold my hands up on Zanaga as i offered up a speculative buy at 17p and although my belief in the company has not really changed clearly sentiment towards Zanaga and the small cap listing has. 

Iron ore has retreated somewhat (Although not unexpected) and the merger between Xstrarta and Glencore has left some questions to be asked, This coupled with black rock selling down its position in Zanaga has saturated the positives listed here:

·  Current cash position year end 2012 as announced today is $40m or £26.3m

·  Market Cap  £30m

·  Shares in issue 278.777m

·  72.89% of shares in issue not held in public hands (End Jan 2013)

·  Net assets £144m

2012 Highlights

·    Substantial increase and upgrade in Mineral Resource¹

-    57% increase in overall Mineral Resource to 6.8Bt at an average grade of 32.0% Fe

-    74% increase in Measured and Indicated resource category to 4.69Bt with an average grade of 32.5% Fe

·    Maiden Ore Reserve Statement of 2.5Bt at 34% Fe

·    Feasibility Study drilling programme complete

·    Extension of Mining Exploration Licences to August 2014

·    Pipeline PFS successfully completed on schedule with positive results

-    Production of 30 million dry tonnes per annum over 30 year life of mine

-    Slurry pipeline identified as optimal transportation solution - >US$1 billion capital expenditure saving on direct costs compared to rail

-    Premium product of 68% Fe, with low impurities, expected to receive above benchmark pricing

-    Forecast competitive operating costs - in industry bottom quartile

-    Capital expenditure of US$7.4 billion, in line with previous estimates

-    Significant expansion potential

The real question will be when small cap equity markets eventually hit the rock bottom and the cyclical trend changes! where will the clever cash go? It's my honest belief that those with a strong case will be first to see the early bulls through the door.

Iron ore will no doubt become popular again in the coming months as the mills don't stop burning for to long.  Zioc's ore forcast is just about as good as it can get however the final decision on who will take Zanaga on will ultimately come from Glencore-Xstrata.

Meanwhile the background sellers finishing and that has to be better than a poke in the eye...

Lets not forget the PFS cost hundreds of million dollars and are not fag packet equations generated from a shoe string study (as many small caps do).

Looking to solid fundamentals, Strong/robust cash positions and acute tangible value rarely hurt your pocket like those who rely on a wing and a prayer

11p shout here: http://uk.advfn.com/one-free-share-tip/zanaga-iron-ore-buy-into-market-weakness-starting-at-11p-says-doc-holiday/614

http://www.shareprophets.com/views/851/zanaga-iron-ore-buy-into-market-weakness-starting-at-11p

Zak Mir shout here: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/456/buy-zanaga-iron-ore-zioc-the-latest-wedge-formation-breakout-candidate

17p shout here: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/19/zanaga-iron-ore-is-a-speculative-buy-at-17p-argues-doc-holiday

Hope some of you are bunkering down ready for the magic of the markets.

All the best Doc

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Tuesday Chatter Vol.I

Yesterday morning we wake up to the Lrl news which was obviously a stinker however the company always try and stem the rot with some positive hindsight/foresight bla bla bla... '' Folks this is the game '' We can never be certain but more often than not a companies hardest call is to deliver good or bad news in the right way and at the best time.... Sounds simple ay? Although statistics say otherwise.

I'm told that Lrl have cash covering its position! As do New World Oil however they are not alone as I recently covered Global Petroleum (Gbp) who also have a cash coverage with some interesting projects in the Mozambique channel and more importantly Namibia. Serica (Sqz) have just farmed out announcing BP who have taken 3d seismic costs with rights and responsibility to drilling/well testing costs should the data be favourable, which highlights New & Lrl are not alone out there!

They just have a negative stream around them right now......

Mar City announce a £5.8m contract today which might explain along with other recent announcements why the company has moved up significantly. '' Is this leaked and known news? '' and is it factored into the share price.

Gkp have been under a fair bit of pressure after the CEO moved over a huge chunk of his share interest which spooked the market which was well played on. Gkp have made plenty of news over the years since its  bumper rise from 11p to 450p, Is it not time that shareholders started to ask about the game play around the company, surely they have something in their arsenal to echo the significant value Gkp has, I mean it was stuffed down the markets throat at one point. '' Start asking the questions of who is actually pulling the strings ''

Medusa mining was a wrong shout by me at 168p as today it opens around 115p.
MML are well undervalued and my advice is to look at Buying into weaknesses!!! When the worm turns it will correct quickly in my opinion.

As 8am fast approaches i run to publish this piece and sadly without some other key topics. Look in later this week.

All the best Doc

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Shanta Gold (Shg:ln)

 

Shares In Issue: 461.83m

Market capitalisation: £55.42m

52Wk High: 34.50p

53Wk Low: 10.38p

On Friday, AIM listed Shanta Gold (SHG) announced that director Jonathan Leslie had bought 2.3 million shares which brings his total holding to 15.44 million or 3.34% of the company. Even at the current low price of 12p this purchase is not immaterial. The company is now capitalised at £55.42 million and is just off 12 month lows (10.375p) and well off 12 month highs (34.5p).

It would seem directors are not alone in buying shares in Shanta and although the sector has almost leprous status among investors at present, no trend lasts forever.

I won’t comment too much on the price of gold as I’m hardly an expert however the basic principles of buying stocks with decent funding positions and strong buying support to fill the gaps of any distressed seller with a feasible strategy to increase growth has to be worth a closer look.
Shanta gold has explicitly confirmed that it is on track to hit its 2013 production target of 70,000oz from an increased crushing capacity and a programme to cut cash costs from $800oz to $850oz to $675-775oz is firmly in place.

The Company estimates that the recoverable gold over the next five years at its flagship New Luika Gold Mine is 430,000 oz at an average blended grade of 6.3 g/t, up previously from 225,000 oz over the first three years. The completion of the Company’s maiden reserve and formal publication of the mine plan over an initial five year period through to the end of 2017 is only subject to interpretation of final geotechnical in-pit drilling results which is expected to be finalized and published in early Q3 2013.

Odey Asset Management LLP is increasing its position with some steady buying seen in recent months. Hence it is not just directors but also some of the most switched on long term value investors in London who are buying.
The recent AGM allowed the company to remind us all of its strong balance sheet and real cash generation. There are risks, most notably that the gold price may fall further or that Shanta may mess up operationally (it has not always delivered).
However for me the salient bull points are:

• Reliable cash with robust balance sheet
• Significant production upgrades
• Reduction of cash costs
• Increased Institutional and Boardroom buying activity
• Stifled sector looking at trend reversal

Targeting the right company in the right sector at the right time is always difficult but a fundamentally simple case has been laid out here briefly.

The article also features on shareprophets.com a website i endorse and recommend, Feel free to share and reference respectfully

The link is here: http://www.shareprophets.com/views/697/shanta-gold-large-scale-director-buying-a-signal

All the best Doc

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Global Petroleum Update (11.06.13)

Good Morning,

Today we hear that Global have confirmed the sale of the Eagle ford asset for $510,000 which is further cash into the coffers which sit at around £15m cash which means the company is trading below cash value!!!

Global Petroleum appear completely unloved as they are charted into frontier operations in Namibia however the risk of the E&P sector for an Oil and Gas smallcap is significantly de-risked by its cash and tangible value.

Marketcap £12.7m

Net Assets £19.5m

Cash         £13-14m

(Exchange rate £1=$1.65)
Share Issue 199.45m

Must see news coverage below

Nambia News One Channel: http://www.helioschariot.com/category/namibia/


New presentation out – here. Count the source rocks  (Courtesy of the helios website)

The focus on HRT follows a simple principle of reflective material value to Global and its interest in Namibia, The company are looking to broker a high value deal with its data room open and considering all options tabled.

Some previous thoughts here: http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/global-petroleum-undervalued-in-sector.html

OFST.com review is here: http://uk.advfn.com/one-free-share-tip/buy-global-petroleum-limited-at-7-625p-says-doc-holiday/411

Shareprophets.com review here: http://www.shareprophets.com/analysis/534/buy-global-petroleum-at-6625p-a-low-risk-namibia-play

This shows the potential of the region. Any drilling success by HRT will see Global’s shares rocket.
I regard it as a matter of when and not if the region is pegged on the map. Given Global’s mammoth cash backing it appears a low risk play on this potential.

The arguement why not position in another operator in Namibia? frankly I don't see another company with more cash in the bank than its marketcap, Low cash burn, acute tangible value of over £15m with Intangible value of £21m before completing any further joint venture/s

I suggest signing up to the SP.com and OFST.com site for a pragmatic and diverse source of information as a private investor, a valuable tool to help circumnavigate the markets.

All the best /Doc


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Weekend Chatter vol. III (2nd-9th June 2013)

Overview of the week

After what has been a positive week we look at the value past and present, I continue to believe that Global Petroleum are well undervalued and with positive news on multiple fronts bursting to add material value my opinion is to BUY.

Thoughts here: http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/mountfield-group.html

After the success of Paternoster resource I looked at a number or shell/holding companies and I have to say that my concern is that many of these are used as cash cows, I contacted one and thought the director taking the call was going to cry as he felt instant pressure from some simple yet direct questions. I also spoke with another company who only wanted to communicate through one line to keep a consistency in what the company were conveying! ( Is that to say you can't both follow a simple principle and sing from the same hymn sheet? ) Probably not and probably because a bunch of these companies are nothing more than legal money spinners for toffs who know how to play the system.

I will follow up Monday and if I don't get a firm chat with the company I won't wait on reviewing a dog and a diamond of the shell/holding sector. KEEP THE EYES ON DLC...

( These are high risk plays and if you get it wrong you hurt! On the contrary PRS was a right shout but time to look at undervalued companies now )

Sound Oil to seem to have preformed well since a chat with CEO James Parsons, Sou seem to be on the cusp of great things... They are now producing and exploring with Nervesa ready to roll and Rapagnano tilling up revenue.

Sound Oil here: http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/sound-oil-gas-exploration.html

Bahamas Petroleum seem to be back at the 4p Buy area with a 3rd try at this level, I'm now keen to see if the stock erodes a range and falls to a new 12m low or firms up breaks out towards 7.5p again... One to follow and often manipulated by investor groups trading.

Some thoughts here: http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/introduction-after-brief-introduction.html


I'm still pragmatic about gold stocks being taken as purchase of solid gold is not the only advantage play for the productive investors.... Whilst I maintain Medusa Mining, Shanta Gold and Minnow Oregon Gold look relatively cheap I also recognise the Platinum drum being beat so look to BUY AQP again from 35p to 42p with a view to selling for significant gains once again. Perhaps the need to wait whilst the recent shooting of a mine union representative is needed before committing more than 1st tranche in.


Lots happening on the BB and the usual Sunday targets for the Friday ramp buyers goes ahead once again. Always more valuable to follow a potentially profitable play long before the weekend otherwise we might as-well believe in money tree's



Frontera (Frr) Play the usual jedi mind trick on investors as they fly from 0.5p to 1.3p on little to nothing and then deliver a wind and piss Rns, Same old same old from the Ceo. ( I will add that the company have either suckered P.i's for years and years or actually believe they can get the lead balloon in the air )

Keep watching for updates on forthcoming shell, Undervalued natural resource stocks etc

Hope all are winning and having a great end to the week, all comments answered

Regards Doc

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U.S Oil & Gas June 4th

The Information The Real Investors Needed

After all the cock and bull from factions of forum posters the truth is they all sat in a room like good little boys and watched the CEO of US Oil and Gas deliver this:

https://soundcloud.com/user1895051/bwyan-waffle-4th-june-london

Above is six and half minutes of chatter after arriving late due to not having the stomach to neck his last pint of the black stuff before hot tailing it over to the meeting. I mean surly he had dutch courage and a bunch heavies to deal with 60-80 unhappy investors? Wrong.... He waltzed in like Matilda with some seemingly spell bound hocus pocus....

Bri then went on to present some technical chatter here:

https://soundcloud.com/user1895051/usop-2nd-presentation-sofitel

Twelve minutes here with the six minutes above and the half dozen questions and the game was over to the shock and disbelief of disgruntled investors? Wrong..... He even received a clap!

What the hell was all the wind and piss about on both forums? Well I'm sure some who claim to know more than others have nothing to worry about and their investments safe and in good hands! simply because they feel or proclaim to know something the real investors don't!!!

Truth is that this is utter shit as the company themselves find arriving at a location on time and in the right hotel is something of a challenge or the fact that they can't make simple comms on time comprehensively to NDOM state authority or the fact that the presentation of the company from 2012 with its projected activity and delivery actually coming up with a big fat fail.

USOP may work EB2 and all may not be lost at EB1 but it seems there are to many balls in the air at once for this team with the school boy technical error's made which the Bod seem to have to revisit and clear up. None more so than these type meeting.

Convey the right message with conviction.
Be on time
Accept a reasonable level of responsibility for your own actions
Give the genuine shareholders the same courtesy as all involved

USOP are still proactive and pragmatic in delivering hydrocarbons and value and I'm not here to argue, Should they do 10% of what they say then things could well see a change in the horrible downward trend.

More to come from Us Oil & Gas soon at the 2013 AGM but don't expect fireworks as the big shouters are big pussy cats and unlikely to represent any investor unhappy with the past 12 months.

Attend yourself if you have anything good,bad or ugly to say! (I'm not suggesting anything other than reporting facts) '' I still however would like to speak with BFP,MM,Lols,TF,Wiggy '' All for very different reasons i hesitant to add and particularly would like to thank MM for his invite even though he failed to contact me to date.

Before anyone asks I see value in E&P Oil & Gas companies but prefer to look at ones with decent cash positions with minimal risk and tangible value similar to Global petroleum, Here:

http://docslaymanschatter.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/global-petroleum-undervalued-in-sector.html

http://www.shareprophets.com/analysis/534/buy-global-petroleum-at-6625p-a-low-risk-namibia-play

This is but a example of one, you can register on OFST.com (Advfn) or Shareprophets.com to hear more or follow me on twitter & Blogs.

Regards

Doc

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Global Petroleum undervalued in the sector

Global Petroleum (GBP)

Marketcap         £13.2m

Cash                   £14.8m

Net Assets         £21.8m

Shares In Issue 199.45m


The balance sheet displays that Global have more cash and a relatively low cash burn than its current market cap. It has also announced on 28th May 2013 that an agreement had been made to sell the Eagle ford shale interest to a private company. Principally this is a done deal and will furnish Global with a further $510,000

''The EFS sale is in line with the Board's strategy to focus on its current portfolio of projects in Africa and new opportunities which will enhance shareholder value.''

GBP has 30% working interest in the Juan de Nova Est permit which is located to the east of Juan de Nova Island in the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique with Wessex Exploration holding the remaining 70%

Global has also won 2 licences where they hold 85% working Interest offshore in depths  (1300-3000m) and are actively reviewing  joint ventures to develop the assets further.

The prospects sizes are potentially very large and with new 3D seismic acquisition Global anticipates firming up one large structural prospect and possibly a number of stratigraphic leads with a view to drilling a first well.

The data room is active and Global Petroleum have recorded further discussions. We also see the Peter Taylor stable Buying at 7p over two transactions in early to mid May 2013 increasing their significant holding.

Namibia is simply pioneering country which has the potential to unlock a bunch of potential. Further developments from HRT suggest that their initial drilling results show hydrocarbons although not yet at commercial value so they drill again 15km west of wingat-1 at murombe to test a lower Cretaceous basin floor fan (spud in late May 2013).

'' From the well's data, HRT has identified two well-developed source rocks rich in organic carbon. Both are in the oil-generating window.''

Galp Energia hold 14% interest in the 3 well program of which HRT operate 10 blocks of 4 licences.

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2013/05/namibia--hrt-finds-noncommercial-oil-at-walvis-well.html

Its a matter of when and not if the region is pegged on the map, GBP are in a unique position today and with a reduced level of risk, They trade heavily below tangible/cash value.

OFST.com review is here: http://uk.advfn.com/one-free-share-tip/buy-global-petroleum-limited-at-7-625p-says-doc-holiday/411

Shareprophets.com review here: http://www.shareprophets.com/analysis/534/buy-global-petroleum-at-6625p-a-low-risk-namibia-play

I suggest signing up to the SP.com and OFST.com site for a pragmatic and diverse source of information as a private investor, Its simple,free and a valuable tool

All the best Doc


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From Home At A Glance

As I return home to the UK after a great break in the sun regenerated by Cypriot hospitality I glance across the markets at a few points of interest.

I'm not focusing to much on Paternoster Resource as requested as I have said enough already, at sub 0.30p after beating the drum and loudly. Why?
Simply the fundamentals looked right and the CEO made a great trade in early 2012. ( I will be sharing some further opinion as to why I took a bunch of profit whilst holidaying )

The company now look to be realising  portfolio value whilst gathering in popularity. I now watch in anticipation to see how these micro investment funds preform. Paternoster clearly are spreading their wings in flight over retail markets with Bison Energy hitting Sky news thus stimulating the private investors into a frenzy which for me is always an invitation to lock in some gains and de-risk until i can validate the move and how it maybe factored in ( Or not as it maybe  )

Most are aware I write for the http://www.shareprophets.com/ website with no introduction from TA specialist Zak Mir who himself covered PRS here: http://www.shareprophets.com/analysis/450/paternoster-resources-prs-is-a-14p-target-too-close-to-heaven

You can catch my early bird call here: http://uk.advfn.com/one-free-share-tip/buy-paternoster-resources-at-0-325p-says-doc-holiday/463

All are free to register, sharing a pragmatic and diverse writers point of view.

Regardless of my individual thoughts on Nick Lee, Paternoster resource or Bison Energy the facts were there for all to see once scratching the surface. For those that sling mud early at the writers including myself it maybe time to lick your wounds and register/sign up for the daily update!!!

I have been keen on GBP for sometime and hope to provide a Q&A and coverage soon. (watch this space) The company has sold off assets in the states and has more cash than the current marketcap as it sits on the Namibian frontier with a bunch of cash and data room open to offers.




As I sat with Marius and panicos discussing the dark cloud that has hung over Cyprus the sobering and typical village chatter was sealed by this '' We have food in our stomachs and wine on the table ''

Perhaps the 60,000Euro sports car outside a quaint taverna does not fully correlate but the sentiment certainly does. Sunday we look at the wider picture of the Aim and smallcap markets as the FTSE and Dow un-ravel we expect to hear the noise of the money returning back to the saloons and bars of the Aim markets.

Spotting the good from the bad and down right ugly.

All the best Doc


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